人工智能能否评估市场情绪？

Luke TemplemanResearch AnalystLuke.Templeman@db.com+44 207 541 0130 Galina PozdnyakovaResearch AnalystGalina.Pozdnyakova@db.com+44 207 547 4994 Stefan AbrudanResearch AnalystStefan.Abrudan@db.com+44 207 547 0659 Executive summary: What AI has taught us about markets in 2025 Executivesummary and1 How we created our AI analysis of market psychology We see this analysis as aconversation starter, not a trading indicator. It gives us new insight intowhy markets move, confirms various prejudices, and quantifies subjective market commentary. Using AI toanalysemarket commentary First things first: Are the daily market commentaries that we feed intoour AI system balanced? Can we rely on our daily market commentaries? The following chart shows twoanalyses performed by our AI system to check on the overall tone of our What we did: ➢The input:We gave ourproprietary AI system(dbLumina) our daily market ➢Analysis:We then asked it toanalyse the commentaries ➢Sense check:To checkwhether our commentarieswere biased from the start, wefirst askeddbLumina: “What %of the tone of thecommentaries is If commentaries are ‘balanced’, can there still be differences intension, anxiety, relief, etc? This is necessary to assess whether the presence and severity oflanguage indicating: ➢Geopolitical Conflict &Disputes:Wars, escalatingtensions, threats, sanctions, ➢Trade Wars & Tariff Conflicts:New tariffs,retaliatory measures, tradedisputes, trade war fears,uncertainty in trade ➢Political Instability: Government collapses,contentious elections,political gridlock, threats to ➢Market Volatility: Descriptions of marketsbeing "roiled," "volatile,""plunging," "sharp drops,""sell-offs" (especially whenattributed to uncertainty or Have investors been rational? Have investors been rational in 2025?dbLuminasays “No” but itindicates that the humans have improved as the year has gone on We askeddbLuminato create a gauge to indicate whether investors havebeen rational during each month of 2025. By far, this indicates investors have What the scores mean ➢Positive Score (+0.01 to+1.00):Indicates a tendencytowardsRationality. Thismeans markets reactedlogically to fundamentaldata, earnings, clear central ➢Negative Score (-0.01 to-1.00):Indicates a tendencytowardsFear/Over-reactionto External Negatives. Thismeans markets reactedexcessively, emotionally, ordisproportionatelynegatively to externalthreats (tariffs, geopolitical What does ‘being rational’ mean? The big takeaway is that we shouldprobably be less reactive to short-term events. Perhaps the most interesting trend from the chart is that it indicates investorshave become increasingly rational as the year has progressed. What is behind the indicator? ➢Rational Indicators: Measured responses todata, resilience despitenegative headlines, positivereaction to cleareconomic/earnings news, ➢Fear Indicators:Sharp,disproportionate reactionsto threats, widespread sell-offs on announcements,panic, flight to safetybeyond what might befundamentally warranted,strong emotional language We checked for emotions in the market based on four key aspects: fear, greed,euphoria, and anxiety–dbLuminatells us that anxiety has dominated 2025even as greed and euphoria have waxed and waned. Should we have been lessworried about uncertainty?: ➢Anxious markets the entire year:Early in the year, marketswere worried about Trump’spriorities even as stockmarkets continued to climb.More recently, the macro ➢Euphoria:One unexpectedresult is the small amount ofeuphoria around the initial US tariff announcements. Oneconclusion here is that someinvestors feel they oversold onthe tariff announcements and ➢Greed:Is now close to itshighest level of the year. What drove markets? Cognitive bias or actual developments? What each of the gaugesmean: ➢Cognitive Bias Impact Score(-1 to +1):How muchmarket movements seemeddriven or distorted bycognitive biases (over- ➢Actual News Developments Impact Score (-1 to +1):How much marketmovements seemed directlyand logically explained bythe objective content andseverity of actual newsdevelopments (economic The prominence of cognitive biases each month in 2025 We askeddbLuminato detect various common cognitive biases and indicate the prominence of each by month.We then assigned a score where a higher prominence = a higher score. The totals are close to what we expect What AI thinks about sentiment We next askeddbLuminato create a gauge of sentiment. It is more of agauge of the macro backdrop than an index of investor sentiment. Some of the key factors that gointo the AI-sentiment gauge ➢Overall tone:Whether thelanguage used was generallypositive, negative, or neutral. ➢Key market movements:Thedirection and magnitude ofchanges in major equity and ➢Economic indicators:How various economic reports(inflation, GDP, employment,manufacturing PMIs, consumerconfidence) were received and ➢Geopolitical and policy developments:The impact ofevents like tariffs,