弹性经济：应对城市下沉和洪水风险的策略

Resilient Economies:Strategies for Sinking I N S I G H TR E P O R TN O V E M B E R2 0 2 5 Contents Foreword Executive summary Introduction: Sinking citiesWhy should governments and businesses care? 1Sinking landscape 1.1How widespread is urban sinking? 2Case studies and solutions 2.1Tokyo’s comeback: the first sinking city to stabilize2.2Shanghai’s evolution: integrating policy and sponge city2.3Rotterdam’s resilience: engineering a future on water 3The way forward30 3.1Is a mindset shift needed to make progress?313.2What are the key enablers of positive change?343.3What actions can the public and private sectors take?37 Conclusion Contributors Endnotes Disclaimer This document is published by theWorld Economic Forum as a contributionto a project, insight area or interaction.The findings, interpretations andconclusions expressed herein are a resultof a collaborative process facilitated andendorsed by the World Economic Forumbut whose results do not necessarilyrepresent the views of the World Economic Foreword Anu DeviLead, StrategicInsights, Centre for Raj KannanLeader for Infrastructure andReal Estate, Asia Pacific and Cities are at the forefront of transformation. Asurbanization accelerates and the climate crisisintensifies, the risks facing urban environmentsare becoming more complex, interconnected andurgent. Among these, land subsidence, often This report is published at a pivotal moment, asleaders across the public and private sectors arecalled to move beyond reactive crisis managementand embrace holistic and integrated strategiesthat anticipate, prevent, mitigate, adapt and is The insights and recommendations in this reportare intended as a foundational resource fordecision-makers seeking to future-proof cities andeconomies against the growing challenge of landsubsidence and climate change, while improvingquality of life for all. By recognizing subsidence asa core element of the broader urban and climate This is a decisive moment to address sinkingcities. Today, the convergence of sea-level rise,extreme weather events and rapid urban growth isamplifying economic, social and environmental risksin places with land subsidence. The consequences These impacts are not confined to any singleregion; both coastal and inland cities are affected.Urban transformation in the 21st century must beanchored in prevention and resilience. Integrating Executive summary Ignoring sinking cities today meansaccepting escalating costs, strandedassets and social disruption tomorrow. Urban land subsidence, commonly referredto as “sinking cities”, is an underrecognizedglobal challenge. This report demonstrates thatsubsidence can threaten the prosperity andliveability of cities worldwide. Subsidence is drivenprimarily by unsustainable human behaviours from infrastructure investment and nature-basedsolutions. The experiences of these cities highlightthe need to shift from reactive crisis management The report identifies several foundational drivers ofchange for public and private stakeholders: –Value land and water as strategicassets: Manage resources as finite Subsidence often progresses gradually andinvisibly, masking its true scale until criticalthresholds are crossed. The private sector facesdirect risks to assets, supply chains and profitability,while governments must contend with additional –Strengthen governance andleadership: Encourage proactive leadership,regulatory guidance and collaboration to –Operationalize systems thinking: Implementholistic strategies to prevent, mitigate, adapt Beyond economic costs, subsidence threatenssocietal well-being and environmental systems.Communities face displacement, property lossand public health challenges. Environmentalconsequences include loss of vital ecosystemsthat buffer places against storms and erosion. –Commit to evidence-based approaches:Use reliable data, expert insights and globalcase studies to inform risk assessments, –Invest in infrastructure resilience: Upfront investments in subsidence monitoring,building resilient infrastructure, technology andinnovation are essential to reduce the long-term Early, cohesive interventions are essential. Casestudies from Tokyo, Shanghai and Rotterdamdemonstrate that cities can mitigate and adapt toland subsidence through integrated solutions, while Land subsidence can accelerate social, economicand environmental risks. Only by treatingsubsidence as a core component of urban Introduction:Sinking cities Beneath the world’s cities, sinking landis undermining urban foundations and Why should governments and businesses care? While the world’s attention is often drawn to thevisible impacts of climate change, another crisis isunfolding beneath our cities. From Jakarta to NewOrleans, Bangkok to Mexico City, urban areas areexperiencing land subsidence, sinking at rates that, exacerbates flooding in areas compromised byland subsidence. In California, US, land subsidencerelative to sea-level rise is pro