我们看到2025年第三季度有显著的利润率提升潜力

We see margin lift potentialon asolid 3Q25 Target PriceUp/DownsideCurrent Price Maintain BUY.We view Geely’s 3Q25 earnings as solidand we believe Geelycould accomplish its both sales and GPM targets in FY25.We are of the opinionthat Geely’s sales volume growth could continue at least throughout FY26, givenits current incomprehensive NEV model line-upand well-received new modelsincluding the GalaxyM9,A7and Zeekr9X.We also expect these new models, China AutoJi SHI, CFA(852) 3761 8728shiji@cmbi.com.hk Solid 3Q25 earnings.Geely’s 3Q25 revenue rose 48% YoY amid aYoYsales volumegrowth rate of 43%, or about 6%higher than our prior forecast,mainly due to Zeekr’s moreresilient-than-expected pricing.GPM in 3Q25widened by 1ppt YoY but narrowed by 0.5ppts QoQ to 16.6%, or 0.7pptslower than our projection. SG&A and R&D combined ratio was about 12.4%in 3Q25, 0.2ppts lower than our forecast. These key metrics, along with Wenjing DOU, CFA(852) 6939 4751douwenjing@cmbi.com.hk Austin Liang(852) 3900 0856austinliang@cmbi.com.hk Better product mix to lift margins in 4Q25 and FY26.We are of the viewthatQoQGPMdecline could be short-lived, as high-margin new models,including the Zeekr9X, Lynk & Co900and GalaxyM9are to contributemore sales volume in 4Q25 and FY26.We project the sales volume of thesethree models combined to more than double YoY to 285,000 units in FY26 Rising NEV exports to fuel sales volume, margins in FY26.Geely’s NEVexports accelerated from Aug 2025, with an averagemonthly volume of13,700 units in Aug-Oct 2025, doubled from the average in Jan-Jul 2025,aided by the GalaxyStarship 7and Zeekr7X. We expect Geely’s NEVexports to almost triple YoY to 0.3mn units in FY26, as more models are set Earnings/Valuation.We project Geely’s sales volume in FY25-26 to be3.08mn/3.42mn units, with about half of growth in FY26 from exports.Weestimate FY25 net profit to be RMB17.4bn, implying 4Q25 net profit forecastof RMB4.3bn. We revise up FY26-27 net profit forecasts by7.5%/9.0% toRMB20.0bn/RMB21.3bn, respectively. We maintain our BUY rating andtarget price of HK$25.00, based on 12x(prior 13x) our FY26E P/E, to reflectinvestors’ recent concerns about industrywide sales slowdown in 2026. Key Source: FactSet Related Report “Geely Automobile(175 HK)-Solidearnings with more competitive models “Geely Automobile(175 HK)-2Q25earnings preview and 2H25 outlook”-11 Disclosures& Disclaimers Analyst Certification The research analyst who is primary responsible for the content ofthis research report, in whole or in part, certifies that with respect to the securities or issuerthat the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer;and (2)no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in this report.Besides, the analyst confirms that neither the analyst nor his/her associates (as defined inthe code of conduct issued by The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission) (1) have dealt in or traded in the stock(s) covered in this research report within 30 calendar days prior to thedate of issue of this report; (2) willdeal in or trade in the stock(s) covered in this research report 3 business days after the date of issue of this report; (3) serve as an officer of any of the HongKong listed companies covered in this report; and (4) have any financial interests in the Hong Kong listed companiescovered in this report. CMBIGM Ratings BUY: Stock with potential return of over 15% over next 12 monthsHOLD: Stock with potential return of +15% to-10% over next 12 monthsSELL: Stock with potential loss of over 10% over next 12 monthsNOTRATED: Stock is not rated byCMBIGM :Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months:Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad marketbenchmark over next 12 months:Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months Important Disclosures There are risks involved in transacting in any securities. The information contained in this report may not be suitable forthe purposes of all investors.CMBIGMdoes not provide individually tailored investment advice. This report has been prepared without regard to the individual investment objectives, financial positionor special requirements. Past performance has no indication of future performance, and actual events may differ materially from that which is contained in thereport.The value of, and returns from, any investments are uncertain and are not guaranteed and may fluctuate as a result of their dependence on theperformance of underlying assets or other variable market factors.CMBIGMrecommends that investors should independently evaluateparticular investments or its affiliate(s) to whom it is distributed. This report is not and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation tobu