英国房地产导航2025年第三季度

The headlines Our experts share the headlines from their UK CRE sectors this quarter Economicupdate Global and UK economy CONTACT:VICTORIA ORMOND, CFA Global economy Global economy steadies, but risks remain to the downside GLOBAL OUTLOOK: NAVIGATING AGRADUALLY STABILISING LANDSCAPEThe global economy continues to adjustto a policy landscape that has shiftednotably over the past year. While someof the more restrictive tariff measureshave been eased through negotiationand recalibration, conditions remainuneven, and uncertainty persists. As wemove into Q3, the environment is stillevolving, though greater clarity aroundpolicy direction and trade structures isbeginning to provide a firmerfoundation for activity. Quarterly OECD countries GDP growth, % change year-on-year, seasonally adjusted The IMF’s October 2025 WorldEconomic Outlook Update reflects thiscautious improvement, revising itsglobal growth forecast for 2025 to +3.2%(from 3.0% in July) and maintaining+3.1% for 2026, indicating growingconfidence. Inflation dynamics are alsobecoming more balanced. Headlineinflation has moderated across mostmajor economies, supported bystabilising energy prices and improvingsupply conditions, while core inflationis easing more gradually. This hasenabled several central banks to shifttoward a more neutral stance, withmarkets anticipating selective rate cutsinto 2026. The IMF cautioned that the underlying outlook remains fragile,with risks still tilted to the downside.Rising uncertainty, protectionism, andlabour supply constraints coulddampen growth, alongside ongoinggeopolitical and fiscal pressures. GLOBAL SERVICES PMI CONTINUES TOBE EXPANSIONARY The Global Services PMI rose to 53.4 inOctober, extending its sustained periodin expansionary territory (figure above50). Meanwhile, the GlobalManufacturing PMI edged up to 50.8, marking its third consecutive month ofexpansion. UK economy The UK’s growth outlook has been upgraded, though recovery remains gradual UK OUTLOOK: STEADY, BUT STILLFRAGILE After an unexpectedly strong start to theyear, the UK economy continues to showmodest growth but remains underpressure. UK GDP expandedby +0.3%quarter-on-quarter in Q2 2025, following+0.7% growth in the previous quarter. Ona monthly basis, UK GDP rose by +0.1% inAugust, rebounding from a-0.1% declinein July.In its October 2025 update, theIMF raised its UK growth forecastby+10bps to +1.3% in 2025, while trimmingits 2026 projection to the same rate. Thisleaves the UK on track to be the second-fastest-growing G7 economy next year,behind the US, and the third-fastest in2026, after the US and Canada.Looking ahead, the Autumn Budgetwill be closely watched for its fiscalstance, with the balance betweensupporting demand and returning torestraint likely to be a key determinant ofgrowth momentum into next year. Quarterly UK GDP growth, % change year-on-year, constant prices, seasonally adjusted BUSINESS ACTIVITYPICKS UP The services PMI edged up to 52.3 inOctober from 50.8, extending six monthsof expansion. Meanwhile, themanufacturing PMI moved up to 49.7from 46.2, remaining in contraction butshowing a slower rate of decline. SOFTER INFLATION FUELS BoE RATE-CUT MOMENTUM UK inflation held at 3.8% in September,coming in below the Bank of England’s4% projection and reinforcing signs thatprice pressures have likely peakedfollowing earlier increases in food costsand employer national insurancecontributions. The softer reading hasshifted market expectations, withmarkets now pricing in over a 70%chance of a December rate cut, comparedto no further easing anticipatedpreviously. Oxford Economics expectsinflation to continue easing through late2025 and move closer to the BoE’s 2%target into 2026. Capital markets UK commercial real estate CONTACT:VICTORIA ORMOND, CFA Capital markets US investment in UK CRE accelerated in Q3, with capital deployment rising +19% versus Q2 Q3 2025: RECOVERY GATHERS PACEQ3 marked a notably stronger period forthe UK CRE market, with improvingfundamentals and renewed capitalactivity driving a more optimisticoutlook. The UK retained its position asthe second most invested marketglobally, behind only the US, and thetop location for cross-border capital.UKCRE investment totalled £10.4bn thisquarter. This was-9% down oninvestment in Q2, albeit a +6% increaseon Q3 2024. Logistics (£2.9bn) was themost invested sector, followed by theLiving Sectors (£2.6bn), Retail (£1.6bn),Offices (£1.4bn), Data Centres (£1.0bn)and Hotels (£0.9bn). Data Centres(+516%), Living (+49%), and Logistics(+13%) all recorded an increase ininvestment year-on-year in Q3.Cross-border investment into UKCRE rose, totalling £5.9bn, a +16%increase from Q2, and accounting for asignificant 57% share of total UK CREvolumes. GLOBAL CAPITAL STEPS BACK INAs transaction activity has picked up,cross-border capital has continued toplay a central role in driving growth inthe UK CRE market. Overseasinvestment into the core sectors (Office,Retail,