11月10日政策突破，中国储能行业将成主流

China (PRC) | Alternative Energy Policy Breakthrough on Nov 10; China's ESSsector to go Mainstream Recent research Energy Storage: The Heart of the Global ESS is the core pillar for China's energy transition. On Nov 10, NDRC andNEA issued the "Guiding Opinions on Promoting RE Consumption andRegulation". For the first time, ESS-combining "capacity tariff+dischargesubsidy" has been established at the national level. It offers a clear guidance CATL: Solid 3Q with a bright future Sungrow:3Q25 In-Line;Solid GPM onHigher Overseas+ESS Mix; Bullish on ESSDemand JEF Emerging Tech Conf Takeaways - Policy Breakthrough: Dual Mechanism Unlocks Profitability. China’s 10th Nov, 2025 NDRC/NEA directive, introducing a national-level capacity tariff + discharge subsidy framework withexplicit government subsidy + user cost-sharing, marks the most decisive policy shift forenergy storage in over a decade. This dual mechanism directly dismantles the twin barriers ofunstable returns and unclear cost recovery that have capped project IRRs at 3–5% since 2023. Triple Revenue Stack: From Volatility to Predictability.The policy constructs a closed-loop revenue model: capacity tariff recovers fixed costs (depreciation, O&M), dischargesubsidy covers variable costs, and peak-valley arbitrage remains as market upside, withdifferential tilt to long-duration (≥6h/8h) via higher tariffs or extras. Fixed-cost coverage surgesfrom <30% pre-policy (<25% for long-duration) to 60–80% via subsidies +10–15% via C&Iuser pass-through, achieving >95% total recovery (+5–8pp for long-duration). A benchmark100MW/200MWh (2h) system now delivers >RMB40mn annual rev in Inner Mongolia; long- Provincial Execution: Depth, Duration, Differentiation.Local implementations, rolled outfrom May to October 2025, vary by resource and grid needs but converge on long-durationpremiums (≥4h extras, capacity multipliers, priority grid access), 8-15 year terms (longer forlong-duration), and C&I-only cost sharing. Inner Mongolia (80% coverage, 10 yrs; ≥6h 1.2×capacity factor) and Ningxia (75%, 15 yrs; ≥8h exclusive) lead long-duration; Guangdong(RMB0.8/kWh discharge; ≥4h priority) and Sichuan (73%, 12 yrs; ≥6h hydro-complement) Value Capture in High-Margin Segments.Investors should prioritize segments within theglobal energy storage value chain that demonstrate the highest cost concentration and marginpotential. The midstream segment accounts for >70% of total ESS all-in turnkey costs (exclland & financing) and represents the most strategic entry point. CATL (30.5% global cells,113.5 GWh), Sunwoda (strong C&I/ESS growth), Sungrow (14% integration, 19.5 GWh), Kehua Johnson Wan * | Equity Analyst852 3743 8083 | johnson.wan@jefferies.com Kelly Zou * | Equity Analyst852 3767 1116 | kelly.zou@jefferies.com Alan Lau * | Equity Analyst852 3767 1113 | alan.lau@jefferies.com Shuhang Jiang * | Equity Analyst852 3767 1137 | shuhang.jiang@jefferies.com National Energy Strategy China’s energy transition has entered a critical phase. Mid-long term strategic goals urgently requirea robust storage backbone, and the gap between current development and future demand is the China's energy transformation has achieved phased success. As of September 2025, nationalinstalled power generation capacity reached 3.65TW, with RE acc for 59.1%. Wind and solarcumulative capacity reached 580GW and 1.13TW respectively, surpassing thermal power as thecore pillar. ESS capacity reached 103 GW, acc for 40%+ of global total, representing 30× growth Mid- to Long-Term Targets.By 2030, China aims to achieve carbon peak. Non-fossil energy isprojected to acc for >25%, with wind + solar cumulative capacity expected to reach >2.8–3.0TW (+64–75% vs. 2025). Cumulative ESS capacity is expected to grow by c.3x to >300 GW, withlong-duration ESS acc for >50%, in which RE projects will require ≥15%/4-hour storage pairing(mandatory long-duration). By 2035, China targets to build clean, low-carbon, safe, efficient modern Policy Triple Breakthrough: Resolving Profit & CostDilemmas Before this policy, the industry faced two core challenges: unstable profitability and no clear costownership, exacerbated for long-duration due to higher upfront costs. Pre-2023, revenue reliedalmost entirely on daily peak-valley arbitrage, which is highly volatile, and some provinces narrowed TheNovember 10 capacity tariff policy delivers three revolutionary upgrades,creating a 1)Revenue Innovation: Capacity tariff (fixed cost recovery) + discharge subsidy (variable costrecovery) + peak-valley arbitrage create triple revenue streams. National framework sets structureand provinces refine the rates, with most provinces tilting to ≥6h/8h with higher tariffs/extras, 2)Cost Pass-Through Innovation: The policy explicit “who benefits, who pays”, capacity fees entersystem costs, shared via C&I electricity volume. Example: For Gansu 1 GW, 8h ESS facility, grid-sideadds <RMB0.001/kWh, equivalent to <RMB100/yr per user; <1% bill impact,