2025/2026年气候变化科学十大新洞见

Each year, Future Earth, The Earth League, and the World Climate ResearchProgramme gather leading scholars from around the world to review the mostpressing findings in climate change research. The result is the10 New Insightsin Climate Science, delivered as two self-standing products: a peer-reviewedacademic article and this science-policy report providing a rich and valuable For policymakers responding to the urgent challenge of the climate crisis,the10 New Insights in Climate Science 2025/2026offers credible guidancethroughout 2026 and beyond. Visit: 10insightsclimate.science Title:10 New Insights in Climate Science 2025/2026 Produced by:Future Earth, The Earth League, and the World Climate Research Programme Layout and graphics:Azote Printed on recycled, FSC-certified paper. Cite this report as:Future Earth, The Earth League, WCRP (2025).10 New Insights in ClimateScience 2025/2026. Stockholm. doi:10.5281/zenodo.17328963 INSIGHTS INSIGHTS AT A GLANCE 1.Evidence,uncertainty,and questions aroundrecord warm years 2023/2024.While the tran-sition to El Niño conditions helped amplify recenttemperature records, these climate fluctuationsalone are insufficient to explain the anomalies. 6.Observed and projected climate-driven increase indengue.Dengue has surged to its largest global out-break on record. Climate-driven shifts in temperaturehave expanded mosquito habitats and lengthenedtransmission periods, compounding the effects of ur- 7.Climate change–related labour productivity andincome loss.Heat stress driven by climate changethreatens global labour productivity and incomes.While direct losses are greatest in developing coun-tries, the economic impacts will be felt globally, am- 2.Accelerating sea surface warming and inten-sifying marine heatwaves.The unprecedentedpace of ocean surface warming and the intensi-fication of marine heatwaves are driving severeecologicallosses,eroding coastal livelihoods,and compounding risks from extreme weather, 8.Safe scale-up of carbon dioxide removal is neededto tackle hard-to-abate emissions and climate risks.The scale-up of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is nec-essary to complement — not substitute — rapid emis-sions cuts. The development of strong international 3.Global land carbon sink under strain.A markeddrop in the global land carbon sink in 2023 rais-es concerns about a more permanent increasein atmospheric carbon transfer from land and ashrinking ‘remaining carbon budget’. In particular,Northern Hemisphere ecosystems, once consid- 9.Carbon credit markets – integrity challenges andemergent responses.The rapid expansion of carboncredit markets has come with serious integrity chal-lenges due to systematic flaws, with many projectsoverstating carbon sequestration and lacking addi-tionality. Heavy reliance on low-quality credits risks 4.Climate change and biodiversity loss amplifyeach other.Mounting evidence shows that cli-mate change and biodiversity loss reinforce eachother, creating a destabilising feedback loop thatthreatens both carbon storage and ecosystemresilience. Coordinated action across the Rio Con- 10.Policy mixes outperform stand-alone measures inadvancing emissions reductions.Carefully designedpolicymixes,especially those including carbonpricing, tend to deliver greater emissions reductionsthan individual measures. Policy mixes that includecarbon pricing or reduced fossil fuel subsidies are 5.Climate change is accelerating groundwaterdepletion.The global pace of groundwater de-pletion is rising compared to previous decades,with climate change disrupting aquifer recharge INTRODUCTION updated NDCs.7Several major emitters, includingChina, India, and the European Union are yetto submit theirs. The lack of momentum onambition and implementation presents one of the Global climate indicators continue to signalincreasing cause for concern. In early 2025,the World Meteorological Organization (WMO)confirmed that 2024 was the warmest year on record, with average temperatures reaching1.55°C(± 0.13°C)above pre-industrial levels.1While this is not yet a breach of the ParisAgreement goal to keep long-term globalwarming below +1.5°C, it is a stark indicationof just how close the world is to getting there.This exceptional warming was accompanied With the Paris Agreement’s rulebook now largelycomplete and mounting scientific evidenceabout the urgency of accelerating climate action,COP30 is widely seen as an "implementationCOP": a pivotal moment in climate diplomacy tointerrogate and overcome the persistent barriersholding back real-world progress on mitigationand adaptation. Parties must agree on waysto turn the outcomes of the Global Stocktake8(COP28, Dubai), especially the transition awayfrom fossil fuels, into concrete actions for coursecorrection. To this end, discussions about how toreform the COP process for the “post-negotiationphase” will continue to gather momentum.Climate finance remains a contentious unre- Despite these escalating risks, anth