铁路博弈：多式联运重组已经开始

Game of Rails: The intermodal realignment has begun In today’s note, we offer a mid-4Q25 rail model update. Traffic trends looking a bit soft, withsome added YoY comp risk for UNP and NSC. Still, our top picks remain UNP and NSC as themerger story seems more attainable than a solid 2026 freight market recovery. David Vernon+1 917 344 8333david.vernon@bernsteinsg.com 3Q25 saw top line headwinds, but opex / adj OR performance generally strong withNSC an outlier to the downside.On the top line, UNP, NSC, CPKC, and CSX all missedstreet expectations. Only CN delivered a revenue beat in the quarter (and only +30bps toestimates, so nothing exceptional). Strong operating cost performance helped save theday, with adjusted ORs coming in stronger than the street anticipated at UNP, CN, CSX, andCPKC. NSC missed consensus by 1.6% on adj opex and 114bps on adj OR - an outlier onthe downside. The growth outlook for NSC was also weaker than expected. Justine Weiss+1 917 344 8433justine.weiss@bernsteinsg.com Specialist Sales Steve Song+1 917 344 8401steve.song@bernsteinsg.com The intermodal realignment has begun. A key learning from the last few weeks has beenthat the realignment of intermodal volumes resulting form the proposed combination ofUNP and NSC has started to become a reality. Coming out of earnings, Norfolk eventuallyrevealed that transcon volume originating or terminating in the Southeast (Atlanta,Charlotte, Jacksonville) and moving in JBHT boxes would be moving off the network. Thattraffic was moving between NSC and BN in Memphis under an interline partnership withBNSF, and will now change hands in Birmingham with CSX. We estimate that this willresult in around $100M of annual revenue and 100-150k units a year (spot estimate 128k)changing hands. We think it is reasonable to expect that this shift of traffic nets out to a 1%headwind / tailwind for each carrier, and it will be interesting to see how this impacts CSXintermodal RPU over time. Importantly, this is only a small fraction of the NSC intermodalvolume that moves in JBHT boxes, which we estimate at 910-940k annual loads (pointestimate, 929k, see Exhibit 1, Exhibit 4). Our updated estimates vs. consensus.Overall carload performance has been slowing interms of YoY growth in the last few weeks compared to L13W performance, with particularweakness in Intermodal (Exhibit 6). Turning to 4Q25 carload forecasts, CSX has hadsome lingering Hurricane Helene easier comp benefits, so it makes sense that our modeland the street’s estimates are forecasting carloads to come in a bit lighter than they’vebeen trending QTD. While we’re also modeling some uplift to 4Q25 numbers from lowerQTD trends at CPKC, CN, and UNP, the street’s YoY carload growth numbers look a bitaggressive for the Canadian rails. NSC carload consensus numbers also look a bit toooptimistic given merger-related share shift to CSX (we model more conservative YoYcarload growth for NSC that looks more like WTD performance) (Exhibit 7). For 4Q25adjusted diluted EPS, we’re expecting an in line quarter for UNP, upside to current streetestimates for NSC (+3% on better opex), CN (+1% on higher rev from better yields), andCSX (+1% on better opex), and potential downside for CPKC (-2% on lighter rev and worseopex). For FY26 EPS, our estimates vs. consensus are about in line for CSX (-30bps), aheadof consensus for UNP (+2%) and CN (+1%), and below consensus for NSC (-1%) andCPKC (-2%). (See Exhibit 11 through Exhibit 25 for details). Sticking with the Transcon: Maintain Outperform on UNP and NSC, Market-Perform onCNI, CPKC, and CSX. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE PRICE TARGET CHANGE / ESTIMATE CHANGE IN BOLD O - Outperform, M - Market-Perform, U - Underperform, NR - Not Rated, CS - Coverage SuspendedSource: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis. INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS Remain Outperform on UNP / NSC, Market-Perform on Canadian rails / CSX. PRICE : UNP:We reach our one-year price target of $290 (previously $294) by using our NTM+1 EPS estimate of $14.08 (previously$14.28) with a multiple of 20.6x (unchanged). NSC:We reach our one-year price target of $333 (previously $347) by using our NTM+1 EPS estimate of $14.50 (previously$15.69) with a multiple of 23.0x (previously 22.1x). CNR.CN / CNI:We reach our one-year price target of C$152 (previously C$148) by using our NTM+1 EPS estimate of C$9.18(previously C$9.13) with a multiple of 16.5x (previously 16.2x). We use a CAD/USD exchange rate of 0.72 (unchanged) for our$109 (previously $106) one-year price target for the U.S. listed equity (CNI). CP.CN / CP:We reach our one-year price target of C$114 (previously C$121) by using our NTM+1 EPS estimate of C$5.68(previously C$5.79) with a multiple of 20.0x (previously 20.9x). We use a CAD/USD exchange rate of 0.72 (unchanged) for our$82 (previously $87) one-year price target for the U.S. listed equity (CP). CSX:We reach our one-year price target of $37 (unchanged) by using our NTM+1 EPS estimate of $2.02 (p