股市回顾：特朗普连任一周年

One year on since Trump's re-election Similar to 2016-17, risk assets have surged since Trump's re-election 12m ago, even as gold soared too & oil dropped.Second year of Presidential election cycle typically sawhigher vol & lower equity returns, as did 2018. IEEPAtariffsruling to keep uncertainty elevated, but impact muted fornow. European Equity Strategy Emmanuel Cau, CFA+44 (0)20 3134 0475emmanuel.cau@barclays.comBarclays, UK Magesh Kumar Chandrasekaran, CFA+44 (0)20 3134 5983magesh.kumarchandrasekaran@barclays.comBarclays, UK Emmanuel Makonga +44 (0)20 7773 2593emmanuel.makonga@barclays.comBarclays, UK Weekly market commentary One year on since Trump's re-election.This week markedone year since the U.S. presidential election that sawTrump secure a second term. The past year has beeneventful, with Trump dominating headlines and playing apivotal role in Trade War 2.0, DOGE developments, conflictsin Ukraine and the Middle East, and questions about Equity Market Review Arihanth Bohra Jain+91 (0)22 6175 1406arihanth.bohrajain@barclays.comBarclays, UK Our weekly pack contains keycharts on performance valuationand technicals Federal Reserve independence. Policy uncertainty has been a defining feature of Trump 2.0 sofar, although it hasn’t hampered market performance per se. Indeed, returns across most assetclasses have been largely positive over the past 12m, showing notable similarities to the yearfollowing Trump’s first election win in 2016. In both periods, Bitcoin was the top performer, andequities outpaced bonds. Within equities, EM/China and Japan outperformed the U.S, whileEurope lagged. The dollar declined in both cases. However, Gold has surged this time, unlike itsmuted reaction during Trump’s first term, while oil is down sharply compared to 2016–17, whenit was among the top performers. Sectorwise, European returns were broadly positive across sectors in Trump 1.0, but there hasbeen more dispersion this time around with Financials and Utilities doing well while sectors likeHealthcare, Real Estate and Materials declined. US sectors have also been more divergent thistime with Materials, Real estate and Energy declining, while Tech claimed the top spot again. The second year of US election cycles typically saw higher volatility and lower equityreturns, as did 2018. While there may be no direct read-through to future performance, it isnoteworthy to examine asset class returns during the second year following Trump’s 2016victory. Volatility rose sharply, and oil delivered another round of double-digit gains.Conversely, several top performers from the first year such as Bitcoin, EM/China equities, andJapanese equities declined. Equities overall still outperformed largely due to US equities faringwell in the end. However, looking at data since 1927, it is pertinent to note that US equitiestypically struggled the most during the second year of the Presidential term, in the run up to themid-terms. Source: Bloomberg, LSEG Data & Analytics, Barclays Research In fact, we saw a similar pattern emerge during Trump’s first term. As the trade war dominatedheadlines in 2018, it steadily weighed on growth and ultimately led to an equity market decline,while the Fed continued tightening in the background. So far, global equities have broadlytracked the performance seen during that first term, despite lagging significantly during H1. ForTrump himself, his approval ratings have been declining, as was the case during the first term,although the net approval levels have been holding up higher than last time around. If historywere to repeat itself, higher volatility should be expected as we get closer to the midterms inNov'26 (see 2026 Midterm Election Preview, 10 Sep, from our Public Policy analysts). Tariffslikely to stay in focus in 2026.Under Trump 2.0, the U.S. administration has imposedtariffson most major trading partners, raising theeffectivetariffrate to approximately 13–14%.Despite a strong recovery in equities since the Liberation daysell-off,U.Stariff-sensitivenamesin Europe (BCEUTRAD basket) keep lagging, with sectors such as Autos, Chemicals, Healthcareand Staples struggling the most. This week, the Supreme Court heard oral arguments onTrump’s use of IEEPA fortariffs,with a ruling expected early next year. This decision will becritical, astariffrevenues for the US have been substantial and have played a key role in containing the term premium on long-end yields. Expectations of a ruling against IEEPAtariffsliftedlong yields in the US and ourtariff-loserbasket on Thursday. However, our public policyanalyst believes that even if SCOTUS strikes down the use of IEEPA fortariffs,Trump hasalternative legal authorities to pursue similar trade policies. Other options such as Section 338of theTariffAct of 1930 and Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 could be used to arrive at asimilar outcome on thetarifffront, suggesting that any adverse ruling would likely be only aminor hurdle for Trump (seeTarif