美国经济笔记：未来一周你需要知道的事

Date US Economic Notes What you need to know for the week ahead Brett RyanSenior US Economist+1-212-250-6294 Commentary forMonday:Though we have a few private sector data points thisweek,focus is likely to remain on Fedspeak in the wake of Chair Powell’smessaging followinglast Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. Briefly recapping (see“Fed Notes: October FOMC recap: Dec not a done deal“),the Committee'sdecisions on rates and the balance sheet were in line with expectations. On theformer, the FOMC delivered a 25bp rate cut, bringing the fed funds rate to the3.75-4% range. On the latter, an end to balance sheet reduction was announcedbeginning in December. The rate decision saw two-sided dissents–the first since2019, with Kansas City Fed President Schmid wanting to keep rates steady andGovernor Miran once again preferring a larger (50bp) cut. Matthew Luzzetti, Ph.D.Chief US Economist+1-212-250-6161 Justin WeidnerEconomist+1-212-469-1679 Amy YangEconomist+1-212-250-9959 However,Chair Powell's press conference was meaningfully more hawkish thanwe anticipated. In his prepared remarks, Powell cited "strongly differing views" inwarning that a December rate cut is "far from…a foregone conclusion." Thiscomment, which was repeated later in the presser and was bolstered by upbeatlanguage on economic activity and more sanguine comments about the labormarket, sought to correct market pricing which had moved to reflect nearcertainty of another rate cut before year end.Powelllater cited a "growing chorus"of officials that think the Fed should "wait a cycle", a sentiment that had beenforeshadowed in the September SEP (see“Who’s who in the Fed’s latest dotplot?”). On QT, the Committee announced that it will conclude balance sheet runoff onDecember 1, broadly in line with our expectations. Thereafter the Fed will roll overmaturing Treasury securities via non-competitive bids at Treasury auctions,proportionalto announced offering amounts,and reinvest MBS principalpayments into Treasury bills. In Q&A, Powell stated that the Fed plans to hold the aggregate size of its balancesheetunchanged“for a time,but not a tremendously long time,”beforeconducting purchases to grow securities holdings in line with growth in demandfor its liabilities. Our expectation is that these purchases will commence in Q1.Powell also indicated that the Committee discussed but made no decisionsaround the desired long-run composition of the SOMA portfolio but that there isbroad agreement on reducing the share of MBSand moving in the direction of aTreasuryportfolio that more closely matches the universe of outstandingTreasuries, which will entail shortening the duration of the Fed’s holdings. Distributed on: 31/10/2025 19:53:32 GMTDistributed on: 31/10/2025 19:53:32 GMTThis week’s full line up of Fed speakerswill run the gamutacross the hawk / dovespectrum.The schedule kicks offon Monday with a moderated discussion withSan Francisco President Daly (non-voter) and an outlook speech by GovernorCook. We expect both officials leaned towards another reduction in Decemberand thus were not part of the aforementioned“chorus”of hawkish voices.Another voice supportive of further reductions may be heard from Vice Chair ofSupervision Bowman on Tuesday. That said, we willbe vigilant about any openness from this group to a skip in December, especially Bowman who couldbe at risk of a dovish dissent in December if the Committee decides to hold ratessteady. Thursday could provide a critical look at the various camps amongst Fed officialsat this point. Among the speakers we are set to hear fromareNY Fed PresidentWilliams, who we expect to echo Powell’s comments, and Governor Waller,though he is participating in a panel on payments. On the hawkish side, GovernorBarr will participate in a moderated discussion and St. Louis’s Musalem (voter)and Cleveland’s Hammack (non-voter) are also set to speak--the latter hasalready indicated that she did not supporta rate cut in October. WhetherMusalem and Barr represent hawkish dissent risks to a December rate cut will beimportant for understanding Committee dynamics heading into that meeting–weidentified both officials as only having one rate cut this year inthe September dotplot. Finally, on Friday, Williams is set to speak again in Frankfurt, Vice Chair Jeffersonwill speak on AI and the economy, and Governor Miran will speak on stablecoinsand monetary policy. While the first two officials are likely to sound similar toPowell, Miran will no doubt reiterate a more dovish take, following his dissent infavor of a 50bp reduction in October. Regarding the data docket, while the list ofdelayedfederal government releasescontinues to pile up, we will see a few private-sector data pointsstarting withMonday’smanufacturing ISM (48.9 forecast vs49.1 previously) and Ward’s unitmotor vehicle sales (16.4mn vs. 16.6mn). The formerwill provide an early read oncurrent-quarterfactory sectoractivitywhile the latterwill give some insights intoconsumer s