自动驾驶时代韩国出租车行业的危机与创新策略

Crisis andInnovation Strategiesforthe Korean Taxi Industry inthe Era of Autonomous Driving Noh JinyoungSenior Economist, NY Office(Head,Policy and InstitutionalFrameworkTeam,MonetaryPolicy Department)Tel.02-759-4424unoh@bok.or.krKim JwagyeomSeniorEconomist, NY OfficeTel. +1-212-759-5121kidd@bok.or.krEom TaegyunEconomist, NY OfficeTel. +1-212-759-5121tkeom@bok.or.krLim ChoonsungHead,Macroeconomic StructureResearchTeam,ResearchDepartmentTel. 02-759-5280likeisaid@bok.or.kr 1.This report examines the crisis facing Korea’s taxi service industry in light of the rapid development ofautonomous driving (AD) technology and global rise of the autonomous taxi market. It then explorespotential reform measures to address these challenges. 2.The global autonomous taxi market is projected to grow at an average annual rate exceeding 50percentover the next decade. Withthe market’sstrong growth potential and significant linkages to relatedindustries, countries such as the United States and China, boasting technological dominance in manyareas of innovation, areinvesting heavily and expanding commercial services. Korea,incontrast,remains dependent on conventional taxi services, with autonomous taxishavingnot yet undergonefull-scale testing. 3.Given the characteristics of the self-driving taxi industry, where economies of scale play a significant role,it is highly likely that existing small-scale taxi operators will be unable to participate in the businessmodelonce self-driving taxis become commercialized, which could ultimatelyresult in substantiallosses for those engaged inthe traditional taxi industry.Yet it will be difficult to block the entry ofautonomous taxis through regulation alone. The need to strengthen national competitiveness, the agingworkforce of taxi drivers, and consumer demand all point to the eventual necessity ofadoptingautonomous taxis in Korea. 4.Korea must therefore preparestructural reform measures that both ease regulations to enable theentryof autonomous taxis and reduce the share of individual taxis through appropriatecompensation schemesin ordertominimize the impact on existing actors. ①To secure entry channelsfor autonomous taxis, it is crucial torelax the cap on taxi licenseswhilealsostreamlining detailed regulations such as those governing testing. ②An acceptable exit plan must be created for current taxi workers.This includes establishing asocial fund to buy back and retire licenses at fair value,along with additional compensationmeasuressuch as profit-sharing schemes. *Australia’s successful license buyback program offers a usefulreference point. ③Given Korea’s existing public transportationinfrastructureandtesting environment and the scale ofcompensation funds required, it would bemost effective to launch pilot reforms in small and mid-sized cities and then expand them gradually nationwide. ■Disclaimer: The views expressed herein are those of the authors, and do not necessarily reflect theofficial views of the Bank of Korea. When reporting or citing this paper, the authors’names should bealways explicitly stated.■We would like to express our sincere appreciation to Chun Kwang Myung,directorof the Bank ofKorea’s New York RepresentativeOffice; KimYoungho,senior research fellowat the Korea TransportInstitute; ChoHyun Jun, head of AutoCrypt’s U.S.office; Kwon Ohsang, CEO of Lane4Company;and representatives of 42dot, a Hyundai Motor Group subsidiary, for their invaluable advice andcomments. Ⅰ.Background 1.Autonomous driving technologybased on artificial intelligence (AI)is advancing rapidly, led bythe United States and China, and the commercialization of autonomous taxis is accelerating in itswake.1No longer confined to the realm ofresearch and development, autonomous driving has emerged asa strategic industry of national importance. Recognizing this potential, major U.S. and Chinese companiesare making aggressive investments to secure a competitive edge. 2.The adoption of autonomoustaxis is widely regarded as an inevitable trend, essential for securingfuture growth engines and improving consumer welfare. Yet Korea is seen as falling behind.In theUnited States and China, autonomous taxi services are already expanding to the point of becoming acommon sight, while in Korea even proper testing of driverless vehicles remains limited.2Should this gappersist, Korea risks losing ground intheglobal competition and ultimately being reduced to following othersby adapting domestic vehicles to foreign software. 3.Beyond the technological dimension, Korea’s taxi market remains dominated by conventionalservices, restricting the entry of new business models.3Regulations designed to protect the traditionaltaxi industry have hindered the market’s ability to adapt to technological advances and shifts in consumerdemand,significantly delaying the rollout of innovative services and constrainingconsumer choice.Nevertheless, introducingautonomous taxiswholesalemay be easier said than done. Given the stagnanti