重型汽车尾气氮氧化物排放标准回顾性分析（英）2025

Nafisa Lohawala, Joshua Linn, Lucie Bioret, Emma DeAngeli, Nicholas Roy, andBeia Spiller About the Authors Nafisa Lohawalais a fellow at Resources for the Future (RFF). She earned a PhDin economics at the University of Michigan after receiving a BS-MS dual degree ineconomics with a minor in computer science and engineering (algorithms) from theIndian Institute of Technology, Kanpur. Lohawala’s research lies at the intersection ofindustrial organization, energy economics, and public finance. Joshua Linnis a professor in the Department of Agricultural and Resource Economicsat the University of Maryland and a senior fellow at RFF. His research centers on theeffects of environmental policies and economic incentives for new technologies in thetransportation, electricity, and industrial sectors. Lucie Bioretis an economist at the Agence Française de l’Environnement et de laMaîtrise de l’Énergie (ADEME), otherwise known as the French Environment andEnergy Management Agency. Bioret graduated from AgroParisTech and UniversitéParis-Saclay with a master’s degree in Environmental Economics. Her previous work atRFF focused on industrial decarbonization. Emma DeAngeliis a senior research analyst at RFF. She then earned her Master ofEnvironmental Management degree with a specialization in Environmental Economicsand Policy from Duke University in 2022, focusing on community-based environmentalmanagement and climate change policy. Nicholas Royis a research associate at RFF working on US national and state energypolicy. At the federal level, Roy utilized the Haiku simulation model to analyze theimpacts of clean energy tax credits, renewable energy standards, and emissions pricingon the power sector. At the subnational level, he has developed a model for evaluatingmarket design mechanisms in emissions trading systems. Beia Spilleris a fellow and the director for RFF’s Transportation Program. Prior tojoining RFF, she was Lead Senior Economist at Environmental Defense Fund, whereshe worked for almost a decade. She was also a Board member for the Association ofEnvironmental and Resource Economists through 2024. Spiller is an energy economist,with experience working on electricity and transportation issues. Acknowledgements We thank Art Fraas, Richard Morgenstern, and Stephanie Weber for helpful commentsand suggestions; all remaining errors are our own. We gratefully acknowledge financialsupport from the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation (Grant G-2022019372) and the RFFRetrospective Studies of Regulatory Performance grant. About RFF Resources for the Future (RFF) is an independent, nonprofit research institution inWashington, DC. Its mission is to improve environmental, energy, and natural resourcedecisions through impartial economic research and policy engagement. RFF iscommitted to being the most widely trusted source of research insights and policysolutions leading to a healthy environment and a thriving economy. Working papers are research materials circulated by their authors for purposes ofinformation and discussion. They have not necessarily undergone formal peer review.The views expressed here are those of the individual authors and may differ from thoseof other RFF experts, its officers, or its directors. Sharing Our Work Our work is available for sharing and adaptation under an Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0) license. Youcan copy and redistribute our material in any medium or format; you must giveappropriate credit, provide a link to the license, and indicate if changes were made,and you may not apply additional restrictions. You may do so in any reasonablemanner, but not in any way that suggests the licensor endorses you or your use.You may not use the material for commercial purposes. If you remix, transform, orbuild upon the material, you may not distribute the modified material. For moreinformation, visithttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/. A Retrospective Analysis of Heavy-Duty Vehicle TailpipeNitrogen Oxides Emissions Standards∗ Nafisa Lohawala†Joshua Linn‡Lucie Bioret†Emma DeAngeli†Nicholas Roy†Elisheba Spiller† April 23, 2025 Abstract This paper presents a retrospective analysis of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)2007 regulations targeting NOx emissions from heavy-duty vehicles. We replicate EPA’s on-roademissions model and compare the assumptions used in its analysis—vehicle sales, scrappagerates, NOx emission rates, and vehicle use—with actual outcomes in 2022.This comparisonevaluates the accuracy of EPA’s assumptions and their long-term impact on NOx reductionestimates, providing a basis to assess the accuracy of the similar methodology used in the recent2022 standards. We find that EPA’s most significant prediction error was overestimating scrap-page rates of older vehicles, which led to underestimated emissions both with and without thepolicy; on net, this resulted in an underestimation of emissions reductions by 0.52 million to