人工智能基础设施 - 中国（H/A）：为aidc升级与降温——价值8000亿元的新机遇

Powering up & cooling down for AIDC –RMB800bn worth of new opportunities Industry Overview 30 October 2025 No power no AI: China 2030 non-IT capex at RMB800bnOur global team estimates that AI-related capex will exceed US$1.2tn by 2030, nearly EquityChinaAI Infrastructure triple vs. 2025. While US is a global leader in AI, we note that China plays an importantrole in global AIcompetition. We see China AI capex at RMB600-700bn in 2025, drivenby government spending (including telco) and major internet firms (Exhibit 4). We expectsuch capex to grow at 25-30% CAGR to RMB2-2.5tn (US$280-350bn) by 2030. Power isfundamental to AI, fueling DC for model training & inference. President Trump explicitlylinked AI leadership to energy security. Reliable and abundant power source is gettingmore vital, due to 1) fast adoption of AIDC vs. IDC (more training power draw); 2) high-performance computing chips deployment; and 3) higher server rack power density. IEAexpects global DC use of power to grow 2.3x from 416TWhin 2024 to 946TWh in 2030(1.6% global power demand), a CAGR of 15%. We forecast China DC use of power to risefrom 102TWh to 277TWh in 2024-30E, a CAGR of 18%. We expect AI non-IT capex, or AIinfrastructure (AI metals, power, equipment, cooling, E&C) market size to grow toRMB800bn (c.US$110bn) by 2030, accounting for one-third of total China AI capex. Matty Zhao>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong)+852 3508 4001matty.zhao@bofa.com Yibing Xia>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (HongKong)+852 3508 8045yibing.xia@bofa.com Ming Hsun Lee, CFA>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong) Gary Tsang>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong) Powered up for AI- nuclear, equipment, ESS, generatorsCompared with US, EU and SEA, China is well powered up for AI with high abundant Summer Wang, CFA>>Research AnalystMerrillLynch (Hong Kong) powercapacity, low power cost, dominance in renewables, strong grid & equipmentsupply. We identify five opportunities: 1) nuclear & uranium,with China capacity to growfrom 60GW in 2025 to 100GW in 2030 (60% of global capacity under construction),leadingto uranium shortage and price hike. Buy CGN Mining; 2) strong China gridinvestment & US/EU grid upgrade leads to fast transformer demand growth. BuySieyuan/ Jinpan/ Huaming/ HD Hyundai; 3) we see global ESS installation growth of 21%CAGR in 24-30E, and China players’order growth CAGR of 30%+ in 25-27E. China’s15FYPalso stresses to develop ESS. Buy Sungrow/ CATL/ EVE; 4) diesel powergenerator to grow at 28% CAGR in 24-27E. Buy Weichai/ Yuchai; 5) investment in AIDCand new technology bring opportunities for power supply. Buy Megmeet/Delta. Miriam Chan, CFA>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong) See Team Page for List of Analysts Cooling & AI-related metals (copper, aluminum)Every 10°C rise in server temperature can reduce equipment reliability by up to 50%. With surging AI power need, we expect 42% CAGR for China liquid cooling market in2025-30E, with the penetration rate reaching 45% in 2030; given liquid cooling offers20-50x higher heat-transfer efficiency than air, save up to 30% power and PUE isas lowas 1.1. Buy AVC. Powering AI requires metals like copper (most important), aluminum. WeexpectChina direct AI use of copper demand to grow to c.1mnt by 2030, accounting for5-6% of total copper demand. The indirect use like grid, power equipment will add up toc.50% of copper demand.We also forecast DC to drive 695kt of aluminum demand by2030E, vs. 330kt in 2025, implying a 2025–30E CAGR of 16%. Minor metals liketungsten, tin, and gallium are critical parts for chips and rare earth is important for AIapplications. Buy Zijin Mining/ CMOC/ Chalco/ Hongqiao. China’s East to Westcomputing projects lead to optical fiber growth to feed data transition need. Contents China 2030 AI capex to reach US$330bn+12 2030: Global AI capex to reach US$1.2tn+12China 2025 AI Capex at US$85-95bn (RMB600-700bn)12China 2030 AI Capex at US$330bn13China 2030 AI non-IT Capex to be US$110bn (RMB800bn)13 Powering AI: five new opportunities14 No power, no AI14AI power opportunities #1. Nuclear value chain21AI power opportunities #2. Asia filling equipment gap22AI power opportunities #3. BESS for AIDC24AI power opportunities #4. Power generator for AIDC26AI power opportunities #5: AI power supply28 Why cooling important in AIDC?38Liquid Cooling: efficient, power saving, innovation38China cooling market to grow at 42% CAGR in 2025-30E39Trend #1: Immersion cooling (浸没式) penetration to grow39Trend #2: Centralized CDU vs. Distributed CDU40Trend #3: Microchannel (微通道) cold plate technology41Competitive landscape41 Asia roles in growing global AI42 Taiwan’s role in AI infra boom42 Japan: FA companies benefiting from AI43Korea: structural growth for power equipment; nuclear renaissance43SEA’s competitive advantage in AI boom45India: limited role in global AI boom46 Appendix48 Key chart Exhibit 2: China AI capex value chainWe present China AI capex value ch