您的浏览器禁用了JavaScript(一种计算机语言,用以实现您与网页的交互),请解除该禁用,或者联系我们。 [招银国际]:在边缘上坚实,估值合理;维持持 有 - 发现报告

在边缘上坚实,估值合理;维持持 有

2025-11-10 Lily Yang,Kevin Zhang,Jiahao Jiang 招银国际 落枫
报告封面

Solidbeat on margins but valuation fair;Maintain HOLD Target PriceHK$68.00(Previous TPHK$48.00)Up/Downside(14.4%)Current PriceHK$79.45 Hua HongSemireported record 3Q25 revenue of US$635mn (+21%/+12%YoY/QoQ), in line withBloombergconsensus and guidance. Gross marginrecovered to 13.5% (+1.4ppts/+2.6ppts YoY/QoQ), beating expectations by2.3ppts/2.5ppts.During the period,net profit was US$26mn,5.3% belowconsensus,althoughnet profit margin improved to 4.1% from 0.7%/1.4% in1Q/2Q. 4Q25 revenue is guided at US$650–660mn (midpoint +21% YoY, +5%QoQ), with GPM of 12–14%.We maintain our FY25 revenue forecast andraise our GPM estimate from 10.9% to 12.0%,reflecting stronger marginrecovery.We lift our FY26 revenue forecast to US$3.2bn, incorporating theplanned fab acquisition, which is expected to closeinaround August 2026 andadd US$600-700mn in annual revenue.Maintain HOLDwith TP adjustedtoHK$68. ChinaSemiconductors Lily YANG, Ph.D(852) 3916 3716lilyyang@cmbi.com.hk Kevin ZHANG(852) 3761 8727kevinzhang@cmbi.com.hk Operationalhighlights: ASPuplift andhighutilization.Revenue growthwas supported by a 7% QoQ increase in wafer shipments and a 5% QoQrise in blended ASP. The ASPturnaroundbegan in 2Q25,~80% from priceadjustments and ~20% from mix optimization,andwas broad-based acrossall major platforms. Utilization remained elevated at 109.5%,with all 8-inchfabs running above 110% and the main 12-inch fab at ~105%. Fab 9 isrampingupsteadily, currently loading >35k wpm against >40k capacity, withpeak output of60–65k wpm expected by mid-2026. Jiahao Jiang(852) 39163739JiangJiahao@cmbi.com.hk Stock Data Segmentsand drivers: NOR Flash and AI in focus.Standalone NVMrevenue surged 164% YoYin 3Q25, led by NOR Flash demand as 55nmvolumeramped upand 40nm preparedfor introduction. Analog and powermanagement ICs grew 33% YoY, with an estimated 10-12% of grouprevenue linked to AI server power chips. Auto & industrial contributed ~22%ofrevenue(industrial 16%,auto 6%),with further growth expected.International revenue accounted for ~18%, supported by the ongoing 40nmMCUcollaboration with STMicroelectronics,which remains ahead ofschedule. MaintainHOLD;TP adjusted to HK$68,based on 2.4x 2026E P/B(previously 1.7x), approximately 10% above 1SD of the 5-year historicalforward average. The revision reflects improved ASP and margin momentumas the business emerges from the cyclical downturn. While we remainpositiveon Hua Hong’s strategic positioning in China’s semiconductorlocalization and its ongoing fab expansion, we see current valuations as fairlypricing in near-term prospects.Upside catalysts include stronger demand orfurther ASP increases. Downsiderisks include weak end-markets, pricingpressure, and geopolitical tensions. Source: FactSet Source: Company data, CMBIGM estimates Source: Companydata, CMBIGM estimates Disclosures& Disclaimers Analyst CertificationThe research analyst who is primary responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or inpart, certifies that with respect to the securities or issuer that the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer; and (2)no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in this report.Besides, the analyst confirms that neither the analyst nor his/her associates (as defined in the code of conduct issued by The HongKong Securities and Futures Commission) (1) have dealt in or traded in the stock(s) covered in this research report within 30 calendar days prior to thedate of issue of this report; (2) willdeal in or trade in the stock(s) covered in this research report3 business days after the date of issue of this report; (3) serve as an officer of any of the HongKong listed companies covered in this report; and (4) have any financial interests in the Hong Kong listed companies coveredin this report. CMBIGM RatingsBUY : Stock with potential return of over 15% over next 12 monthsHOLD: Stock with potential return of +15% to-10% over next 12 monthsSELL: Stock with potential loss of over 10% over next 12 monthsNOT RATED: Stock is not rated byCMBIGM :Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months:Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months:Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months CMB InternationalGlobal MarketsLimited Address: 45/F, Champion Tower, 3 Garden Road, Hong Kong, Tel: (852) 3900 0888 Fax: (852)3900 0800CMB InternationalGlobal MarketsLimited (“CMBIGM”) is a wholly owned subsidiary of CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (a wholly ownedsubsidiary of China Merchants Bank) Important DisclosuresThere are risks involved in transacting in any securities. The information contained in this report may not be suitable forthe purpos