重新思考ICT能源：网络、数据中心、人工智能

Content Executive summaryIntroductionHistoric and current electricity useWhy is energy use not growing exponentially?What about the future?ConclusionReferencesAuthors Executive Over the past decade, there has been considerable discussion about the electricity use ofthe information and communication technology (ICT) industry. There are concerns that thesector’s electricity consumption might increase significantly due to increased digitalizationand growing data volumes, processing, and storage. Looking back, most ICT studies have Ericsson’s research [1] shows that while the total data traffic has increased exponentiallyby about 80 times between 2007 and 2023, the ICT electricity consumption in the usephase has increased only 1.4 times. It is clear that data transmission and electricity useare not directly proportionate. Forecasting future ICT electricity use needs to rely on an It is anticipated that electricity use of networks and data centers will continue to increaseduring the coming years. However, Ericsson’s analyses do not predict an exponential risein electricity consumption as a result of increased digitalization, network expansions, andthe growth of traditional data center services. The uncertainty lies in how AI services andtechnologies will evolve in the coming years. In the short term, there is a limitation in AIhardware supply to enable an exponential increase in energy use. It is also anticipated Introduction The ongoing digitalization has spurred concerns about the ICT sector’s use of electricity andthe corresponding emissions of greenhouse gases. Projections for future electricity demandshave been developed over the past decades. However, what most of them have in common, This white paper will show why predictive studies often fail, how the actual electricityuse of networks and data centers has evolved during the past decade, and describe whatdrives the electricity consumption in these technologies. We will show that data volumesand electricity use do not directly correlate, and explore potential future scenarios for the Historic andcurrent electricity The ICT sector consists of three main parts: fixed and mobile networks, data centers, anduser devices, such as smartphones and computers. Ericsson’s research shows that the sectorhas continuously increased its use of electricity by approximately one to two percent peryear since 2007. At the same time, there have been constant improvements in the energyperformance of products and solutions. While total data traffic has increased exponentially,by approximately 80 times between 2007 and 2023, global ICT electricity consumptionhas increased only 1.4 times. During the same period, the number of users and the numberof devices they use have increased from about 3 billion fixed and mobile subscribers to ICT sector electricity consumption 2020 - 2023 In 2023, the entire ICT sector’s electricity consumption in the use phase was approximately1,000 TWh. [3] This is a slight increase from 2020 when approximately 940 TWh werereported. Networks and data centers contributed approximately 550 TWh to the totalelectricity usage in 2023, and the remaining 450 TWh was from user devices. These resultsare based on research performed by Ericsson, combined with publicly disclosed electricity Collecting and analyzing disclosed information from network operators and data centeroperators provides an opportunity to explore the development of these segments. Figure 3shows reported numbers from 63 network operators, together covering about 75 percent ofall mobile and fixed subscriptions globally. The figures show a small increase in electricityfor 2023 compared to 2020. The right graph in Figure 3 shows the electricity consumption According to Omdia Research, in 2023, a handful of companies, such as Microsoft, Meta,Google, and Oracle, procured most of all new AI GPUs. It is estimated [4] that the electricityconsumption dedicated to AI-specific services, in 2023 was approximately 8 percent of the Historically, there have been several studies developing projections for the electricityuse and carbon footprint of the ICT sector for different end-years. In 2024, Ericssonpublished a study on the actual outcomes [5], showing that many projections for 2020had overestimated the electricity consumption and greenhouse gas emission growth ofthe sector. The main reason for these overestimations tends to be the quality of data used Why is energyuse not growingexponentially? The simple answer is that energy use is not directly proportional to data volumes. Innetworks, transmitting and processing data only requires a smaller part of the electricityconsumed. Most of the electricity is used to provide coverage, even when no data isbeing transmitted or processed, this is referred to as baseload consumption. For example,in mobile networks, the cells communicate with devices, such as mobile phones, to Predictions of future electricity consumption using top-down studies, typicall