亚洲宏观策略仪表盘

Perry KojodjojoBryant XuHazel LaiSameer GoelVaninder SinghJoey ChungJalaj Singh Macro overview of the region With the frontloading of exports in the first half of the year coming to an end, trends in IP and exports have become moremixed. Inflation is still undershooting, consumption is weak, and so is private credit. Most of Asia has ended up with a ~15% effective tariff increase ‒The positive tail is from the potential removal of non-economic tariffs, the negative tail from more punitive sectoral tariffs‒President Trump has proposed sector-level tariffs forpharma, but with substantial carve-outs, leaving minimal effective impact.‒The focus will now shift tosemiconductors, which is what matters most for Asia. ‒Future deals withChina(current deal expiring 10 November) andIndia(also expected in November), as well asUS court hearingson the President’s use of the1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act (5 Nov)will be key events to watch. The negotiations are still on in a few cases Key focus is on China, India & Korea The front-loading in exports to the US seems to be ending Countries exporting high-tech products could see less of an impact But flow dynamics have taken a turn for the better Corporate appetite for dollars seems to be moderating We expect this dynamic to have more legs, given Asia has one ofthe largest NIIP surpluses in the world Foreign exchange FX valuations (based on DB’s FX valuation models) CNY, KRW, and INR are the most undervalued currencies in the region based on the trade-weighted index. This is the first timein 5 years that the INR is among the top three undervalued currencies in the region Market is generally short Asian FX ‒The INR has emerged as the largest long in the region, likely driven by the RBI’s strong resistance at key levels and positivedevelopments in US-India trade relations.‒The market has pared down shorts in IDR, KRW, and PHP, while THB shorts remain largely unchanged. Short THB remains one ofthe largest positions, driven by poor fundamentals‒CNH shorts saw a slight increase from discretionary hedge funds and real money accounts, reflecting market skepticism towardRMB strength despite a lower USD/CNY fix Bond/rates Inflation remains on a downward trajectory ‒Unlike their G4 peers, Asian countries have seen inflationary pressure decline, aside from Korea and Indonesia. ‒The recent pick-up in Korea/ Indonesia inflation is driven by one-off factors: in the case of Korea, the expiration of a specialdiscount in Augustmobile phonecharges, and in Indonesia, higher food prices due to higher-than-expected rainfall that affectedthe planting of certain agricultural products.‒Looking forward, we continue to expect inflation to decline given: (a) weak domestic demand; (b) falling commodity prices; and/or(c) China exporting some of its overcapacity to Asia.‒Hence, there is still room for Asian CBs to ease. MonetaryPolicy Monitor Bond Valuation Monitor Asian local bonds offer selective value vs other EMs Bond Demand-supply (1)–China & Korea Although net issuance is likely to remain elevated in the coming year, we do expect demand to remain strong. This is not justdue toKorea entering the WGBI, which should see $55-66bn of bond inflows over the phase-in period (66-80% of the projected netissuance in 2026), but also strong demand from domestics like banks and lifers Bond Demand-supply (2)–Indonesia & India Back-end IGB issuance will be brought down over the next sixmonths alongside lower full-year supply–now programmed atIDR14.72tn compared to guidance for IDR14.8tn in the budget. On the demand side, back-end demand should recover withrecovering life insurance premiums and EPF payrolls. Thisshould help cap steepness in the curve, particularly for 10Y/30Y. Bond Demand-supply (3)–Malaysia & Philippines Deutsche Bank.ResearchThe Asia Strategy TeamSource:Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP, WIND, Haver Analytics, CEIC, RBI Performance Monitor ‒Asia is underperforming vs the rest of its EM peers, particularly on an unhedged FX basis. ‒India and Indonesia bonds have delivered good duration returns, albeit some of the returns have been eroded by FX. However, wedo think, at least for India, things are taking a turn for the better on the FX front, given recent RBI action. Bond Positioning Monitor GBI-EM ownership–Market is generally underweight Asian bonds Cross-currency swap Cross-currency swap monitor(1) ‒TheAsiaXccybasisisexhibitinghistoricallyelevatedlevels,aphenomenonlargelydrivenbytheabundantavailabilityofUSDfunding.Notably,theproportionofFXdepositstototaldepositswithinAsiahassurgedsince2022,aperiodduringwhichtheXccybasishasseenasignificantincrease.Consequently,thissustainedrichnessintheAsiaXccybasiscreatessignificantstructuralreceivingopportunities. Cross-currency swap monitor(2) OuranalysissuggestsastrongcaseforreceivingXccybasisinINRandSGD,drivenbydistinctcatalystsineachcurrency. ‒ForINR,seasonalitytypicallyreducesECBactivityinOctoberan