为电信并购的新时代做准备

Europe’s TelecomIndustry Should Preparefor a Big M&A Shake-Up Trendsin focus Julien VincentEmmanuel AmiotNicolas PetteMatias FagianoChiara Gorino Capital Currentsis a cross-industry series focusedon distilling the key trends in M&A and identifyinghow management teams can capture value. Europe’s telecommunications industry must brace itself fortransformation as a new era of mergers and acquisitions (M&A)is set to begin. We believe that, during the next decade, fourcatalysts will fundamentally reshape the telecom landscape: •Many markets are currently mature and offer limited organicgrowth prospects•Each market’s telecom landscape is fragmented and requiresconsolidation for players to scale•Calls for national sovereignty in critical communicationsinfrastructure demand more consolidation•Regulators are now more favorable to consolidation Together, these catalysts are creating a compelling environment inwhich strategic M&A can unlock substantial value across the industry. In response to these dynamics, we identify five distinct dealarchetypes that will define the future of telecom M&A: •In-market consolidation designed to strengthen market healthand realize fixed- cost synergies•Cross-border consolidation to capture scale and achieve globalreach•Portfolio rebalancing to optimize asset and service mix•Growth engine acquisitions adjacent to the core business thatdrive profitable and sustainable growth supported by a strongright-to-win•Digital infrastructure consolidation to build scale economies andoptimize returns on capital Each archetype offers unique opportunities to enhance value,whether through operational synergies, market health, or adjacentmarket growth. This paper outlines the specific value drivers within these dealframeworks and provides a strategic playbook that equips telecomexecutives with actionable insights to navigate and capitalize on thenext wave of M&Aactivity. THE FOUR CATALYSTS DRIVING TELECOM M&A IN EUROPE The telecom sector in Europe is entering a pivotal phase driven by four principal catalyststhat are set to redefine the M&A landscape. Together, these forces align to unlock newstrategic opportunities and value creation potential for industry players poised to navigatethis evolving environment. 1. MATURE TELECOM CONSUMER MARKETS REQUIRE CONSOLIDATION The European telecom consumer market is characterized by maturity. Growth acrossboth mobile and fixed segments is minimal or stagnant. The presence of established low-cost competitors and saturated subscriber bases limits the value creation potential fromtraditional “land grab” or aggressive acquisition tactics. In such a context, indiscriminatechasing of market share risks destroying value rather than creating it. Implication:M&A can be leveraged as a strategic mechanism for market repair and bottom-line value accretion — focusing on operational efficiencies, customer base value creation,and portfolio optimization rather than mere low value shareexpansion. 2. THE FRAGMENTATION OF EUROPEAN MARKETS HAS PREVENTED PLAYERS FROMACHIEVING SCALE Compared to the United States, where the telecom landscape exhibits a few large-scaleplayers, the European landscape remains highly fragmented with numerous nationaltelcos. The average EU telecom operator serves only 5 million subscribers, compared with107 million subscribers served by the average US telco and 467 million subscribers bythe average Chinese player. This fragmentation hinders the ability of European telecomcompanies to unlock large economies of scale and reinvest cash flow from matured andcommoditized consumer markets into high-potential segments, particularly digital overlayservices in B2B. Implication:Further consolidation and cross-border scale can enable the creationof competitive platforms in adjacent markets with sufficient scale that guaranteescompetitiveness and sustainable economics. Mobile market share USA, Europe, 2024 estimates, % market share 3. DATA SOVEREIGNTY DRIVES NATIONAL INVESTMENTS IN DIGITAL INFRASTRUCTURE Geopolitical and economic complexities have persuaded national governments and keyinstitutional bodies across Europe to focus on safeguarding critical digital infrastructure,achieving data sovereignty, and investing in scalable AI compute capabilities. Massiveinflows of private capital have already been deployed to reinforce the foundational layers ofdigital infrastructure. Yet, beyond the passive infrastructure layer, there remains a sovereignimperative for telecom operators to sustain and accelerate investments in the active layersof mobile and fiber networks. When looking at investment levels across geographies, it isclear that Europe lags behind. The capital expenditure per capita is €109 in Europe, versus€174 in the United States (Exhibit3). Implication:M&A consolidation in the telecom sector is becoming not only a commercialimperative but also a strategic enabler for digital sovereignty. Through consolidation,operators can secure the scale a