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HARVESTINGPROPERITY: INCLUSIVE ECONOMIC GROWTHTHROUGH STREATEGIC AGRICULTURETRANSFORMATION IN NAMIBIA For more information: Ana Cristina Canales GómezSenior Livestock Specialist Agriculture and Food GDEastern and Southern Africaacanalesgomez@worldbank.org © 2025 The World Bank 1818 H Street NW,Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.orgSome rights reserved This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed inthis work do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governmentsthey represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. Theboundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply anyjudgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement oracceptance of such boundaries. Rights and PermissionsThe material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages dissemination of its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposesas long as full attribution to this work is given. Attribution—Please cite the work as follows: “World Bank. 2025. Harvesting Prosperity: Inclusive EconomicGrowth through Strategic Agriculture Transformation in Namibia. © World Bank.” All queries on rights andlicenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank Group,1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625 • e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org. TABLE OF CONTENTS 5.4Projected Allocation and Potential Adjustmentsto Namibia’s Agriculture Sector Budget158 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY12 INTRODUCTION24 6REPURPOSING EXPENDITURES TO MEETCHALLENGES OF CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATIONAND MITIGATION IN AGRICULTURE164 1NAMIBIA’S AGRICULTURE SECTOR HOLDS THE POTENTIALTO DRIVE FURTHER SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT28 6.1Climate Change Vulnerability in Agriculture1656.2Agricultural Policy for Climate ChangeAdaptation and Disaster Risk Reduction in Namibia1726.3Assessing the Cost Efficiency of Adaptation Policiesunder a Scenario of Uncertainty in Namibia1766.4Mitigation as a co-Benefit of Adaptation:Leveraging the Third Dividend186 1.1Macroeconomic and Fiscal Environment291.2Namibia’s Agriculture Sector: The performance-potential divide311.3Agriculture Policy Framework: how do Namibia’spolicies support its priority development objectives?51 2DATA SOURCES ANDMETHODOLOGY FOR THE PER76 7CHARTING A TRANSFORMATIVE PATH:REPORT CONCLUSIONS ON STRATEGIC AGRICULTUREINVESTMENTS FOR NAMIBIA'S FUTURE190 3UNDERSTANDING OVERALL BUDGET TRENDS: LEVEL ANDCOMPOSITION OF AGRICULTURAL PUBLIC EXPENDITURES82 3.1Tracing the trajectory: Trends andshifts in Namibia’s agriculture budget843.2Dissecting the composition: unpackingNamibia’s agricultural spending patterns963.3Funding Sources of Public Expenditures123 8RECOMMENDATIONS FOR OPTIMIZED SPENDINGIN THE AGRICULTURE SECTOR IN NAMIBIA198 BIBLIOGRAPHY222 ANNEX 1List of policy documents reviewed for the Agriculture Policy Framework232 4FROM ALLOCATION TO IMPACT:INSIGHTS INTO BUDGET EXECUTION128 5TARGETING FOR IMPACT:EFFICIENCY OF AGRICULTURE SPENDING134 ANNEX 2Classification categories of FAO-MAFAP’s rural development expenditures240 ANNEX 3Relationship between OECD and FAO-MAFAP Public Expenditure classification 242 5.1Alignment with Policy Objectives1355.2Allocative Efficiency across Sub-Subsectors1385.3Returns of (responsible) Investment of Policy Measuresto enhance sustainable development ofthe agriculture sector in Namibia150 ANNEX 4Methodology of the Climate Change Deep Dive244 We are therefore greatly indebted to the FAO MAFAPteam led by Lisa Paglietti (Economist, CFIA, FAO), withPaulCathala(Economist/Agriculture Economist/PolicyAnalyst,CFID,FAO),Atisha Kumar(Economist,FAO),and Valentina Pernechele (Agricultural Economist, FAO;Albertus Stefanus Kruger (Agriculture Specialist), HelmkeSartorius von Bach (Professor, University of Namibia);Simon Angombe (Associate Dean, School of Agricultureand Fisheries Science, University of Namibia), and CecilTogarepi (Lecturer, University of Namibia). We wish to express our gratitude to Frauke Jungbluth(Practice Manager for Agriculture and Food, Eastern andSouthern Africa) and Satu Kristiina Kahkonen (CountryDirector, Southern Africa) and their predecessors HolgerKray (former Practice Manager for Agriculture and Food,Eastern and Southern Africa), and Marie Francoise Marie-Nelly (former Country Director) for their guidance andleadershipthroughout the preparation of the PublicExpenditure Review. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This agriculture public expenditure review report entitled‘Harvesting Prosperity: Inclusive Economic Growth throughStrategicAgriculture Transformation in Namibia’wasprepared by a World Bank team led by Ana Cristina CanalesGomez (Senior Livestock Specialist) and Hardwick Tchale(Lead