3q25结果首秀：三一重工与 Zoomlion 胜；威柴并列；三一重工失利

Zoomlion beat; Weichai in-line;SANYI missed 3Q25 results first take: SANY Heavy & Zoomlion beat; Weichai in-line;SANYImissed Fourcompaniesunder our coveragereported their 3Q25resultsafter marketcloseyesterday(30 Oct).SANY Heavy delivered better-than-expectedearnings(+48% YoY),driven bydecentexpense control.Zoomlion’s profitgrowth of36%YoYis also above our expectation,drivenbygrowthaccelerationin overseas and recovery in China. Weichai Power’s net profit grew29% YoY,driven by strong HDT/engines sales, which islargelyin-line with expectation.On the contrary, SANYI’s earnings growth ofonly16%(due to higher expense)is slightly below our expectation. China Capital Goods Sector Wayne FUNG, CFA(852) 3900 0826waynefung@cmbi.com.hk SANY Heavy (600031 CH, BUY, TP: RMB24)–Strong operating leveragewithdecentexpense control.Revenuegrew11% YoY to RMB21.3bnin3Q25. Gross margin slightly contracted 0.4ppts YoY to 28.2%, while S&Dexpense ratio fell0.9ppts YoY to7.4%, representing a net expansion inmargin(change in accounting effect eliminated). Administrative expenseratio dropped 0.5ppts YoY to3%, while R&D expense ratio dropped0.7pptsYoY to5.7% (a continuous YoY reduction trend since late 2022).Net profitgrew48% YoY to RMB1.9bn.In 9M25, net profit grew 47% YoY toRMB7.1bn, accounting for84% of our full-year estimate(run rate in 9M24:81%).We will revise our model to reflect the latest completion of H-shareIPO in our next update.SANY willhold a conference call at 10:00 a.m.(HKT) today (31 Oct). Zoomlion (1157 HK, TP: HK$7.4/ 000157 CH, TP: RMB9.9, BUY)–Overseas sales growth accelerated; China sales returned to growth.Revenuegrew25% YoY to RMB12.3bnin 3Q25, with overseas surging34% YoY to RMB7.5bnandChinagrowing13% YoY to RMB4.8bn.Grossmargin slightly contracted 0.5ppts YoY to 28%, while S&D expense ratioreduced 0.7ppts YoY to 8.1%, representing a net expansion in margin(change in accounting effect eliminated).Both administrative and R&Dexpense ratio droppedYoY.Net profit in 3Q25 grew 36% YoY toRMB1.2bn, despiteFXloss due to RMB appreciation.In 9M25, net profitgrew25% YoYto RMB3.9bn,which accounted for 94% of our full-yearforecast(run rate in 9M24: 89%).Meanwhile,Zoomlion proposed toissue 5-year RMB-denominated CBs (convertible to H-shares), whichamounts to RMB6bn.The conversion price of HK$9.75 implies ~32%premiumto yesterday’s closing price.Zoomlion plans to invest theproceeds in the expansion of overseas capacity (50%), as well as emergingbusinessesincluding robots and new energy machinery(50%).Theproposalis subject to shareholders’ approval.Zoomlion will hold aconference call at15:00 (HKT) today (31 Oct). Related reports:Zhejiang Dingli–3Q25 net profit-15% YoY, below expectations–30 Oct 2025(link) Jiangsu Hengli–3Q25 earnings growthaccelerated to 31% YoY–28 Oct 2025(link) Capital Goods–Recovery of non-earth-moving machinery sales in Sep suggestsearly sign of upcycle–20Oct 2025 (link) Capital Goods–HDT sales +82% in Sep–9 Oct 2025 (link) Weichai Power–1H25 results draggedby higher expenses; Expect a better2H25E–1 Sep 2025 (link) SANY International–2Q25 profit in-line;Raise earnings forecast on new business–29 Aug 2025 (link) Sinotruk–1H25 profit in-line with ourbelow-consensus forecast; Stable growthfor full year largely priced-in–28 Aug2025 (link) Weichai Power (2338 HK, TP:HK$19.5/ 000338 CH, TP: RMB19.9,BUY)–Revenue growthresumeddriven by strong HDT/enginesector.Revenuein 3Q25 grew16% YoY to RMB57.4bn. Based on our calculation,thegrowthwasattributable to (1)23% YoYincrease incore business(engine,HDT, agriculturalmachinery), and (2)6% YoYincreaseinKION’srevenue(in RMB).Blended gross margin in 3Q25contracted 0.7ppts to21.4%.Both SG&A and R&D expense ratiodroppedin 3Q25.According toKION (KGX GR), theefficiency program-related expense forthe full yearis revised downtoEUR170-190mn (from EUR240-260mn), which wasalreadylargely recognized in 1H25.Net profit in 3Q25grew29% YoY toRMB3.2bn.In 9M25, net profitgrew6% YoY to RMB8.9bn, accounting for73% of our full-year estimates(run rate in 9M24: 74%).SANY International (631 HK, BUY, TP: HK$8.9)–Profit growth slower- SANY Heavy–2Q25 profit +38% YoYwith interim dividend; Solid upcycle–22Aug 2025 (link) Capital Goods–Strong domestic salesand export of excavators in Jul–8 Aug2025 (link) than-expectation due to higher expense.Revenue in 3Q25grew15%YoY to RMB5.9bn. Gross margin contracted 0.8ppts (+1.1ppts) to 24.2%.Pretax profit dropped 7% YoY to RMB502mm, which is slightly below our expectation(breakdown of SG&A expense is not disclosed on quarterlybasis).Helped by lower effective tax rate, net profitgrew 16% YoY toRMB414mnin 3Q25.In 9M25, net profitgrew23% YoY to RMB1.7bn,accountingfor 75%of our full-year estimates.SANYI will hold aconference call at9:00 a.m. (HKT) today (31 Oct). Weichai Power (2338 HK / 000338 CH, BUY) Zoomlion(1157 HK / 000157 CH, BUY) SANY Heavy (600031 CH,BUY) SANYInternational (631 HK, BUY) Disclosures& Disclaimers Analyst Certification