桥梁：天然气作为过渡能源的关键作用

The bridge:Natural gas’s crucial roleas a transitional energy source February 2025 Massimo Di Odoardo,Vice President, Gas and LNG ResearchJoshua Ngu,Vice Chairman, Asia PacificGavin Thompson,Vice Chairman, Energy – Europe, Middle East & Africa Over the past 25 years, demand for natural gas hassurged by 80%, to the point where it now meets almosta quarter of the world’s energy needs. Its success liesin the scale of global resources, its low productioncosts, ease of storage and dispatch, and comparativeenvironmental advantages. Gas’s primary role in accelerating the energytransition - displacing highly pollutingcoal and supporting the expansion ofrenewables in the power sector - cannot beunderestimated. Meanwhile, in the transportsector, liquefied natural gas (LNG) is rapidlyreplacing diesel in China’s trucking sectorand competing with fuel oil in global marinebunkering. Gas will also remain fundamentalto numerous industrial processes andresidential heating for years to come. Faced with these challenges, gas needsto demonstrate its true value - as a reliable,affordable and flexible fuel of the futureand as a lower-carbon solution thatwill help deliver, not hinder, the energytransition as alternative technologiesstrive to reach critical mass. In a world seeking greater access to clean,reliable and affordable energy, making thecase for gas has never been more pressing. Of course, gas has its critics. Some dismissits value as a transition fuel, denouncing itas just another fossil fuel driving the climatecrisis. Emissions from gas, particularly LNG,have been in the spotlight like never before,with some justification. What’s more, gasis not cheap. Delivered LNG costs remainhigh, and without a meaningful carbon price,gas cannot compete with the price of coalin powering Asia’s booming economies.Add to that, as Russia’s war on Ukrainehas demonstrated, an over-reliance ongas imports from a single source does notconstitute a robust energy security strategy. The case for gas The lower environmentalimpact of burning naturalgas rather than other fossilfuels is clear As energy demand grows around the world,gas and LNG will be critical in the shift to alower-carbon future. Surging electrification,increasingly met by renewable power sources,will lead the charge to curb CO2emissions.Electrification can only move so fast, however,and the adoption of emerging low-carbontechnologies, such as hydrogen, is currentlytoo slow to achieve net-zero emissions by2050. With coal still accounting for 30% ofthe world’s energy needs, shifting to gas as atransition fuel is a compelling option. It does not produce sulphur dioxide (SOx)or mercury and emits only a fifth of thecarbon monoxide and nitrogen oxides(NOx) produced by coal. Much of the12.6% cut in US CO2emissions and the45% reduction in air pollution in Beijing(that is, PM2.5 and NO2) from China’s“blue sky” policies over the past decadehave come from a shift from coal to gas. The cleanest fossil fuel The lower environmental impact of burningnatural gas rather than other fossil fuels isclear. Burning gas produces only half thecarbon dioxide (CO2) of coal and 70% of oil. Global gas demand by sector Reliability and flexibility The artificial intelligence(AI) revolution and industrialreshoring are transformingelectricity markets Power generators around the world arehungry for more gas, albeit for differentreasons. In the US, gas’s reliability is seenas key as the artificial intelligence (AI)revolution and industrial reshoring aretransforming electricity markets, boostingpower demand by up to 3% a year. Thedramatic increase in US baseload powerdemand provides significant upsidepotential to US gas demand, a shift thatcould be replicated globally as data centresemerge as national security assets. High LNG prices since 2022 risk underminingthe full potential of wider gas adoption in Asia,however. In China and India, where gas usageis mainly used for peak shaving, gas demandis still expected to grow by 95 bcm throughto 2050 in the power sector, offering themost practical option for ensuring flexibilityas renewable investments surge. Withouta carbon price of around US$100/tonne,reducing China and India’s dependency onbaseload coal looks like a massive ask. Theprize, however, would be a reduction of morethan 325 Mt of CO2and result in additionalgas demand of up to 173 bcm by 2035. In Europe, where investments inrenewables continue apace, governmentsare supporting more gas-fired plants toensure they have sufficient reliable andflexible capacity to cope with renewableintermittency and seasonal needs. In Southeast Asia’s major economies,LNG is the only immediate baseloadoption for meeting surging electricitydemand without increasing countries’dependence on coal. Vietnam, Indonesia,Malaysia and the Philippines have setambitions that could see up to 180 GW ofnew gas-fired plants being built by 2050. Enabler of emerginglow-carbon technologies Combining CCS with gas inthe power sec