汇川技术：强劲的FA业绩部分被电动车业务放缓抵消

Weibin Liang, Ph.D.+852 2123 2666weibin.liang@bernsteinsg.com RatingOutperform Dien Wang, Ph.D.+852 2123 2622dien.wang@bernsteinsg.com Price Target 300124.CH 95.00 CNY(98.00OLD) Inovance: Strong FA performance was partly offset bydecelerated EV business In 3Q25, Inovance’s revenue grew 21% YoY, but operating profit declined 8.6% YoY (Exhibit1), as its strong FA performance was partly offset by EV business, which suffered fromdecelerated growth and lowered margins (Exhibit 23). Besides GPM dilution from EV, thedecline in OPM was mainly due to fewer non-recurring gains, as the SG&A ratio decreasedYoY and was stable QoQ (Exhibit 14). Despite the slowdown in EV, with further acceleratedFA demands and a relatively low comparison base for profit in 4Q, we expect Inovance todeliver at high end of its full-year revenue guidance and to exceed its profit guidance. Revenue in FA increased 25% YoY in 3Q (vs. 17% in 1H, Exhibit 3), mainly due to a furtheraccelerated, broad-based cyclical recovery since July (here). Although China’s cycle mayreach its peak growth rate around end-2025, we expect the growth rate of Inovance’sFA segment to stay at an elevated level in 2026, partly supported by strong demands inbattery for energy storage, anticipated strength in consumer electronics due to major specupgrades, and Inovance’s new growth drivers such as process automation and overseasexpansion. The management is optimistic about FA demand in 4Q25 and 2026. The EV slowdown was mainly driven by a key customer—likely Li Auto in our view, whichaccounted for about 35% of Inovance’s 2024 EV revenue and delivered 39% fewer vehiclesYoY in 3Q. As Inovance continues to secure new pilot projects and diversify its customerbase, we expect growth to recover in 2026. We now forecast a higher FA contribution andthus a slightly higher GPM trend. With EPS growth of 30+% in 2025 and a high-teen CAGRthrough 2029, Inovance is likely to maintain its current valuation by mid-2026. Investment Implications Reiterate OP. We lowered PT to CNY95 (was CNY98) by applying a 30.0x EV/EBITDAmultiple to 1-yr fwd EBITDA est. of RMB8.5bn (was 30.0x to RMB8.7bn). DETAILS Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein analysis Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein analysis EXHIBIT 13:Inovance gross margin, operating margin, and attributable net margin trend EXHIBIT 15:Inovance GP margin trends by business group. Inovance company GP margin keeps declining as EV androbot contributing higher % of revenue EXHIBIT 18:Trends of demands from solar industry forindustrial automation in China. APPENDIX - FINANCIAL FORECASTS BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE I. REQUIRED DISCLOSURES References to "Bernstein" or the “Firm” in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC(April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited盛博香港有限公司,Sanford C. Bernstein (Canada) Limited, SanfordC. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited andSanford C. Bernstein Japan KK(サンフォード・C・バーンスタイン株式会社). On April 1, 2024, Société Générale (SG) and AllianceBernstein, L.P. (AB) completed a transaction that created a new joint venturein which their respective cash equities and research businesses operate in a new business combination. Although their respectiveownership percentages in the joint venture differ between North America and the rest of the world, the creation, production andpublication of research is handled collaboratively on a global basis across the two research brands, “Bernstein” and “Autonomous”.Unless specifically noted otherwise, for purposes of these disclosures, references to Bernstein’s “affiliates” relate to both SG andAB and their respective affiliates. Shenzhen Inovance Technolo-A We use EV/EBITDA multiple as the primary valuation method. We set a RMB95 target price using an EV/EBITDA multiple of 30.0xagainst our 1-year forward-looking EBITDA estimates (from the PT date) of RMB 8472.5 million. We set the multiple referencingprevious cycles but adjust for secular or competitive trends that we believe are moving multiples higher or lower across multiplecycles. We use DCF as reference for the company's long-term intrinsic value. As we move along the different stages of a cycle, thetime-dependent target price may deviate from the DCF-implied value. RISKS Shenzhen Inovance Technolo-A The risks to our view on Inovance are mainly associated with macro economy, including industrial capex cycles, trade frictions, andcurrency. The downside risks to our view on Inovance include 1) weaker than expected automation demands in China, 2) weakeror slower than expected share gain in China in segments besides servo motor and VFD, 3) weaker than expected EV demands. RATINGS DEFINITIONS, BENCHMARKS AND DISTRIBUTION