电池储能基金：应对收入波动

Implied valuations sit below the Harmony transaction (£0.41/MWh), but we see a cap on realisable value given build-outand falling capex. Further potential downside risk to revenuecurves adds to complexity. We model revenue scenarios,highlighting c.9-11% FCFe yields. Downgrade GSF to E/W. European Investment CompaniesNEUTRALUnchanged European Investment Companies Hafsa Yasir+44 (0)20 7116 3644hafsa.yasir@barclays.comBarclays, UK Listen Conor Finn, CFA+44 (0)20 7116 6066conor.finn@barclays.comBarclays, UK It all comes down to deliverability on earnings:Since our deep-dive on the battery energystorage funds last year, the sector has faced continued pressure, despite a brief rally followingthe take-private of Harmony Energy Income Fund at an implied valuation of c.£0.8m/MW (c.£0.4m/MWh).The biggest challenge for the sector has been the slow build-up in cashearningsin recent years, despite increased capacity as portfolios move through construction, inour view. We update forecasts to reflect further write-downs in third-party revenue forecastsand incorporate company expansion plans. Higher leverage increases Gresham's sensitivity to revenue fluctuations:We assessearnings potential by modelling revenue scenarios for both funds following the full build-out ofportfolios. We highlight 7.8p of FCFe (11% yield) for Gresham House Energy Storage Fund vs5.3p (9% yield) for Gore Street Energy Storage Fund on a base case scenario (2h GB revenues of£80k/MW/Yr). We seegreater potential upside in a bull scenario for Gresham House EnergyStorage(revenues increase to £90k/MW/Yr), although higher leverage increases the sensitivityto revenue fluctuations. We seegreater downside protection in a bear case scenario fromGore Street Energy Storage(revenues fall to £60k/MW/Yr). The problem with revenue curves:The persistent disconnect between projected and realisedrevenues continues to weigh on sentiment, with actual revenues trailing forecasts by 30-45%versus 2022-23 curves. While both funds have revised down near-term projections, and morerecent performance has been in line with curves, long-term NAVs still rely on nominal revenueassumptions steadily increasing towardsc.£200k/MW/Yrby 2050in GB.This compares to theYTD average of c.£82k/MW/Yr for a 2h system. Rising activist pressure, but further corporate activity is more complex:Given the uniquepositioning of the Harmony Energy Income transaction and limited evidence of transactionalactivity for operational assets,further M&A may be more complex. Private market appetiteremains focused on early-stage assets and falling capex for battery packs is likely going to put a Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of itsaffiliatesdoes and seeks to do business with companiescovered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have aconflict of interest that couldaffectthe objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision. This research report has been prepared in whole or in part by equity research analysts basedoutside the US who are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA. Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page 40.Completed: 20-Oct-25, 23:40 GMTReleased: 21-Oct-25, 03:00 GMTRestricted - External cap on realisable value. Given the current cost of building out a 2h system (c.£0.5m/MW),webelieve a 70-80%uplift,based on current valuations and the Harmony transaction, isunlikely. Valuation and rating changes:Implied portfolio values across the two funds remain fairlysimilar, at £0.38m/MWh for Gore Street and £0.32m/MWh for Gresham House, whilst EV/EBITDAmultiples favour Gore Street in the near term. Overall,we take a cautious view on near-termcash generation, revising our revenue assumptions across all regions, particularly non-GBassets, in line with market trends. As a result, we downgrade Gore Street Energy Storage fromOverweight to Equal Weight and retain our Equal Weight rating on Gresham House EnergyStorage.We also transfer primary coverage of the two funds to Hafsa Yasir from ConorFinn.We see greater upside potential across other areas of our infrastructure coverage, such ascore plus. The Story in 6 Charts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5Executive Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7It all comes down to deliverability on earnings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9Assessing profitability across revenue scenarios. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10Harmony transaction is helpful but further corporate activity is morecomplex . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16Private market transactions point to greater demand for RTB assets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .