美元走软对新兴市场的金融渠道影响（英）

Financial channel implications of aweaker dollar for emerging market Mikael Juselius,Philip WooldridgeandDora Xia BIS Bulletins are written by staff members of the Bank for International Settlements, and from time to timeby other economists, and are published by the Bank. The papers are on subjects of topical interest and aretechnical in character. T The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do notnecessarily reflect the views of the BIS or its member central banks. The authors are grateful to CeciliaFranco for excellent analysis and research assistance, and to Maja Višček for administrative support. The editor of the BIS Bulletin series is Hyun Song Shin. This publication is available on the BIS website (www.bis.org). ©Bank for International Settlements 2025. All rights reserved. Brief excerpts may be reproduced ortranslated provided the source is stated. Financial channel implications of a weaker dollar for emergingmarket economies Key takeaways •The depreciation of the US dollar in 2025 has occurred against the backdrop of continued resilience oftrade and economic activity in emerging market economies (EMEs). •A depreciating dollar affects both borrowers’ and foreign investors’ balance sheets and tends to loosenfinancial conditions in EMEs through the risk-taking channel of exchange rates.•As EMEs have increasingly become net creditors to the rest of the world, the currency hedging behaviourof EME investors has played a greater role in currency market dynamics in 2025. In 2025, the depreciation of the US dollar against the backdrop of monetary easing in the United Stateshas stimulated a rally in emerging market assets. After reaching a multi-decade high in January 2025, theUS dollar depreciated against a basket of emerging market currencies by around 5% through Septemberbefore stabilising (Graph 1.A). As well as their impact on financial markets, easing financial conditions mayhave been a contributing factor to the surprising resilience of economic activity in emerging marketeconomies (EMEs) in the face of higher tariffs and trade-related uncertainty (Amaral et al (2025); Maechler(2025)). A depreciating US dollar acts as a tailwind for EMEs through several channels. Most directly, EMEborrowers with dollar debts and domestic currency assets experience a windfall that strengthens theirbalance sheets and improves their creditworthiness, thereby supporting their demand for credit. Balance sheet effects due to a weaker dollar also have repercussions for thesupplyof credit. For aglobal bank that has a diversified portfolio of loans, improvements in the creditworthiness of borrowersreduce the bank’s credit tail risk, which allows it to expand its supply of dollar credit. This impact on thesupply of credit is known as thefinancial channel of the exchange rate(Bruno and Shin (2015)). Because dollar credit is important in financing working capital for supply chains, the financial channelof the exchange rate implies that a weaker dollar coincides with strong growth in goods trade (Bruno andShin (2023)). This is especially the case for trade in manufactured goods, which often involves complexglobal value chains (GVCs) (Graph 1.B). The impact of the financial channel on trade helps to explain therecent resilience of trade. Despite higher tariffs and trade tensions, trade in goods that are part of GVCs,such as intermediate and capital goods, has held up better than that in other goods so far in 2025(Graph 1.C). Events in April 2025 highlighted a less familiar channel, which can act as a headwind for those EMEsthat have expanded their foreign portfolio holdings. Investors in some EMEs have accumulated largeholdings of US-dollar-denominated assets. Dollar depreciation, therefore, can impose losses on EMEinvestors and set in motion adjustments that tighten domestic financial conditions. Events in Aprilillustrated how the adjustment of foreign exchange (FX) hedge ratios by such investors can amplify currency moves (Shin et al (2025)). The importance of this channel is likely to increase over time amongthose EMEs that are moving towards becoming net creditors in international capital markets. This Bulletin examines the impact of a weaker dollar on EMEs. It first explores the impact on EMEborrowers with dollar debts and foreign investors holding EME currency assets. It then highlights thechannel related to EME investors’ dollar assets, which is likely to become more important in the future.This channel tends to introduce a countervailing headwind for EMEs from a weaker dollar. 1US Federal Reserve's Nominal Emerging Market Economies US Dollar Index, which tracks the value of the US dollar against a trade-weightedbasket of currencies from major EMEs. An increase indicates appreciation of the US dollar.2US Federal Reserve Board trade-weightednominal dollar index for a broad group of US trading partners. An increase indicates appreciation of the US dollar.3Ratio of world goodsexports