新买入：全球储能系统领导者，高ROE、估值吸引及长期AI上行空间

20 October 2025 We initiatecoverage on Sungrow, a global leading inverter and ESS producer, with a Buyrating and PO of RMB198, based on 25x 2026E P/E (vs. its historical average of 24x andChina peers average of 25x). We like Sungrow, considering 1) our positive view of theglobal ESS market and its strong ESS shipment growth; 2) over 30% ROE with net cashposition; 3) solid global footprint with higher margins and entry barriers; and 4) potentiallong-term upside from AIDC. Key risk: US tariff as US accounts for 20-30% of its net profitin FY25E. Yet, it has diversified export clients in the EU/Asia, and its inverter capacity inIndia and Thailand account for c.30% of total capacity, which can expand to ESS capacity. Equity Matty Zhao>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong)+852 3508 4001matty.zhao@bofa.com Peter Wang>>ResearchAnalystMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong)+852 3508 7185peter.wang2@bofa.com ESS to account for c.60% of gross profitsin 2026/27E Weintroduced a global BESS installation model with 21% CAGR in 2024-30E driven bygrid upgrades, policy support and high power tariff in the US/EU. It is the global No.2 ESSsupplier with 12% market share in 2024 (Tesla is No.1). We expect its ESS shipment tojump to 45/60GWh in 2025/26E (+60%/+33% yoy), given 1) solid global ESS demand; 2)good brand image & advanced distribution channel for overseas expansion. Exports shouldmake up c.80% of its shipment in 2025 with 2-5x higher profit margins than in China. Weforecast ESS to contribute 60-65% of its gross profit in 2026-27E vs. 30% in 2023. Stable inverter segment, potential entry in AIDC in L-TSungrowwas the top 2 global inverter producer with 25% market share in 2024. Despite headwinds in China solar installation in FY26-27 (-7% CAGR over 2024-27E), its invertersegment should be stable, thanks to its overseas exposure (c.60% of shipment). WhileSungrow is not an AIDC player yet, it recently formed an AIDC department. We believe itwill be a potential player in this area in the long run as 1) HVDC and SST have similartechnological know-how vs. its existing inverter products; and 2) it can leverage its nearly30 years’experience in power conversion equipment and client services experience. Weforecast BESS addition installation in AIDC to hit c. 55GWh in 2030. If Sungrow does enterin AIDC, we may see multiple upside as AIDC power supply peers trade at 46x 2026 P/E. AIDC: artificial intelligence data centerUPS: uninterruptible power supplyHVDC: high voltage direct currentSST: solid-state transformerBESS: Battery energy storage system.m/s: market shareESS: energy storage system. ESS is the capture ofenergy produced at one time and stored for use ata later period to reduce mismatches betweenenergy demand and energy production. BESS isbeing considered as one of the power sources inthe AIDC. Inverter converts direct current electricity, which isgenerated by solar panel, to alternating currentelectricity, which can be accepted by end-users orpower grid. >> Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analystunder the FINRA rules.Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Securities entities that take responsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictions.BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Refer to important disclosures on page 27 to 29. Analyst Certification on page 25. PriceObjective Basis/Risk on page 25. iQprofileSMSungrow Power (A) Company SectorEnergy Technology Company Description Sungrow is the global largest supplier in PV inverter andNo.2 supplier in energy storagesystem with strongtechnological know-how, branding, channel and after salesservices. Investment Rationale We have a Buy rating on Sungrow for the followingreasons:1) No.2 player in booming global ESS market withadvanced distribution channel and brand premium in high-end market. 2)it is the top global leading Solar inverterplayer who can secure profitable GPM with strong overseasexposure 3) solid balance sheet with strong ROE4)potentialvaluation upside from AIDC. Stock Data Price toBook Value6.1x Focus Charts Exhibit2:Sungrowgross profits mix in 2025EESS and PV inverter business to account for 83% of gross profits in 2025E Exhibit1:Sungrowrevenue mix in 2025EESS and PV inverter business to contribute 73% of revenue in 2025E Exhibit4:Global BESS and AIDC BESS annual installation forecastForecast 21% CAGR for Global BESS annual installation over 2024-30 ESS to account forc.60% gross profits in 2026Efrom 30% in 2023 Exhibit6:SungrowESS shipment by regions in 1H25Overseas account for over 80% of Sungrow’s ESS shipment in 1H25 Tesla and Sungrow have the top 2 market share by s