市场反馈：短期观点不一；第三季度每股收益上涨将强化长期信念

Futu Holdings (FUTU US) Marketing feedback: short-termviewsmixed; 3QEPS upside to reinforce long-term convictions We completed a four-daymarketing trip in HK last week engaging with active long-only and long/short investors covering China/HK markets. We see that L/O investors’long-term conviction in Futu has strengthened,although short-term views are mixed.Key concerns include 1) tightening of account opening process to mainland clientsin HK; 2) fund outflows amid easing sentiment towards stablecoin-related themes;and 3) possible client and asset attritions on theFutubullplatform due to CRS globaltaxation plan. We believe these headwinds are largely sentiment-driven and do notreflect the broker’s solid fundamentals. The recent share price correction (-6.3% inSeptember vs. KWEB’s +10%) presents an attractive entry point to build or averageup positions, in our view, given strong HK/USturnover momentum sustained in 3Q25and Futu’s undemanding valuation relative to peers. We reiterate BUY, and slightlyraise our target price to US$226 (previous: US$224) reflecting improving net interestincome (NII) and FX movements, which implies 26x/23x FY25E/26E P/E. We expectupward revision to 3Q25E EPS consensus upon earnings release in mid-November. Target PriceUS$226.00(Previous TPUS$224.00)Up/Downside26.7%Current PriceUS$178.38 China Financials Nika MA(852) 3900 0805nikama@cmbi.com.hk LO managers showed interests but held mixed short-term views.Recentregulatory developments, including a tighter account opening process for mainlandclients in HK and the CRS global taxation plan, have raised concerns among somelong-only managers regarding regulatory uncertaintyfromChina. We regard theseconcerns overblownwith limitedlikelyimpactson Futu’s earnings. As of 2Q25, thenumber offunded accounts in mainland accounted for ~17% (CMBI est) of total,with their AUM contributing 25%-30% of Group’s total. We see limited impact dueto 1) Futu’s diversified market exposure is fundamentally different from three yearsago, for which the number of overseas funded accounts exceeded 50% of total forthe first time in 1H25; 2) the CRS tax regime applies to all financial institutions inHK, meaning shifting assets from Futu to other platforms would not circumventregulatory oversight. Futu’s competitive pricing and superior trading experiencemake it difficult to replace in our view; 3)theonshore tax authority requests self-declaration on capital gains from historical overseas investment income in the pastthree years (FY22-24). Even though onshore investors managed to transfer outtheir assets, the historical record still likely to require them to self-declare. We thinkthis tax obligation will develop into a “new norm” for onshore investors, and Futu ispositioned to retain its high-net-worthclients,withoutmeaningfulAUM share loss.3Q25E EPSshows potential upside.HKandUS stock markets sustained strong turnover momentum in 3Q25,rising30%/6% QoQ to HK$18.6tn/US$53tn. The HSIand NASDAQ indexgained12%/11%QoQwiththeVIX index down 2.7%QoQ,supportingfavourable mark-to-market capital gains. We expect new paying clientstobeon trackmeeting the target of800k, while net asset inflows may moderatefrom a high 2Q25base. We anticipate trading volume to sustain a sequential risedrivenby robust client AUM and high trading velocity. The 3M HIBOR reboundedback to above 3.5% as of Sep, alleviating some concerns to net interest income.In our model, we project NII to sequentially drop in 3Q25 partly due to the rate cutcycle. Cost per newclient acquisition (CAC) should remain below the guidance ofHK2.5k-3k. We see upside to 3Q25E EPS from higher trading velocity (2H25E:14x vs. 1H25: 16.1x) and interest income from the current level baked in our model.Risk-reward remains attractive.Futu’sADR is trading at 20x/18x FY25/26E P/E, Auditor: PricewaterhouseCoopers Related reports: 1. Futu Holdings (FUTU US)-Pioneeredone-stop financial services platform torideon crypto advancements;InitiateBUY, Oct 14, 2025 buoyed bythe tariff truce and improving liquidity fromtheFed rate cuts.Even if themarket begins pricing in 3Q25 earnings revision, we view current valuation as un-demanding.On a relative basis, Futu’s 12M forward P/E hastradedat 15x-20x P/Esince July 2025with an avg. three-year ROE at 25.2%, compared to peer averagesof36x/31x FY25/26E P/Eand 19.7%ROE (Fig.6).Iftaking into account ofour bull-case scenario, which implies21% upsidetoFY26Eearnings, the current shareprice corresponds to 16.5x FY26E P/E,stillbelow its five-year average of 18.6x.Reiterate BUY with ournewTPat US$226,which implies 26x/23x FY25E/26E P/E. Focus Charts Source:HKEx,Wind,CMBIGM Source:CBOE, CMBIGM Source:Wind,CMBIGM Source:Wind,CMBIGM Source:Bloomberg,CMBIGMestimatesNote:Theestimates of Futu’s peer companies quoted from Bloombergconsensus. Source:Wind,CMBIGMestimates Disclosures& Disclaimers Analyst CertificationThe research analyst who is primary responsible for the content of this research rep