新视野，共同点：奥雅纳全球视野扫描

Arup Foresight Global Horizon Scan New Horizons,Common Ground Global trends impacting the builtenvironment in the coming decade Arup Foresight Global Horizon Scan New Horizons,Common Ground How might disrupted global patterns and flows–of species, resources,information–define the spaces and systems of the next decade? This researchexplores three major dynamics of change and their implications for our futurebuilt environment. Why a Horizon Scan? Taking a longer, and wider viewHorizon Scanning is a systematic approach to gathering intelligence about what is changing, with the aim of betterunderstanding the forces and factorsthat shape our futureoperating context.Horizon Scanning takes awiderview ofchange byanalysingsocial, technological, environmental,economic and politico-legal trends and data. It also takes alongerview of time to see deeper patterns of change, thuslooking beyond the typical five-year horizon most strategiesadopt and mitigating undue influence by short-term disruptions. At Arup, we engage more deeply with context and considerholistic change over time. Horizon Scanning helps us movebeyond what wewantorexpectto see, enabling us to identify abroader range of future risks and opportunities.We bring ‘TotalDesign’ to our projects and clients,connecting multidisciplinaryexpertise with curiosity, collaboration and technical rigour todeliver integrated, purposeful solutions. This relies on taking abroader view and engaging more deeply with context. NewHorizons, Common Groundis the result ofan extensiveHorizon Scan across Arup's global Foresight network and subjectmatter experts. Our evidence base of trends and signals has beenanalysed and synthesised into three key themes for the nextdecade, each with implications and considerations for builtenvironment stakeholders and practitioners. The global context Fragile systems and complexity at scaleThe only constant in the world is change. Societies are on a never-ending mission to understand change, itsdrivers, its pace and its impacts. Thevolatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity (VUCA) of global shiftscannot be avoided, but it can be better understood when viewed as adynamic interplay between different types of change. We can identify,analyse and discuss trends and shifts that follow relatively stabletrajectories (e.g. demographics), that are shaped by human decisions (e.g.political agendas), or that emerge from complex modelling of dynamicsystems (e.g. climate projections). Ultimately, the most dominant forces at play (demographics, technology,economics and values) all hinge on the health of the environment. Itdefines what resources are available and what the climate canaccommodate–as shown by the adapted Futures Diamond (1) on theright.Climate and nature crises are underlying drivers of all other trends,directly impactingthe global movement of people, goods and ideas. The result is a challenge to what we perceive as ‘normal’ over the nextdecade and beyond. The stories that once held society together–sharedvalues, cultural norms, and common truths–are breaking down, and eventhe idea of objective truth is increasingly under threat. Across allsocieties, adaptation to a new and fluid normal will be necessary andinevitable. The sense of urgency in this persistently VUCA world remains palpable,even as its dynamics shift and evolve. It narrows our field of vision at atime when it is more important than ever to take a systems-wide view andto acknowledge that our deep interconnectedness with the world aroundus will help us imagine and enact a better world: one that is safe, resilientand regenerative.Optionalfooter Significance for the built environment The challenge of delivering safe, resilient and regenerative placesLookingbacka decade, we see evidence of interconnected, long-termtrends: seismic shifts that have changed approaches to design in thebuilt environment. The effects of a warming world have been felt inpreviously climate-stable geographies; human encroachment onnatural ecosystems has been linked to a rise in global pandemics (2)with far-reaching consequences, and fraught relationships betweenliberal and autocratic regimes have created severe vulnerabilities inglobal energy and resource supply chains (3, 4). Industry players and policymakers in the built environment arebusilyreactingto these physical challenges, but how often do weengage in exploring uncertainty and anticipating possible long-term futures? The focus of our scanning and analysis inNew Horizons, CommonGroundis the convergence andemergence of trends that presentcritical uncertainties for built environment futures. Looking forwarda decade, will we see further geopolitical decoupling, nearshoringand fragmenting regulation, or will multilateralism prevail? How willthis impact supply chains, materials and costs? Which political andsocio-economic regimes will dominate? What does that mean fororganisations’ international footprint? How will the convergence ofpeople