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Muddy water, let stand With the government shutdown putting USofficialdatareleases on hold, the limited data on hand likely keep the Fedon course for another 25bp cut in October. Macroeconomicfallout from a short-lived shutdown would be limited, butcould intensify as the stoppage becomes more prolonged. Jonathan Millar+1 212 526 4876jonathan.millar@barclays.comBCI, US Marc Giannoni+1 212 526 9373marc.giannoni@barclays.comBCI, US UPDATE This publication is an update to 'US Outlook: Muddy water, let stand', originallypublished on 03 Oct 2025 at 21:39 GMT. We corrected two references to reflect information thatthe BLS will likely count furloughed workers as having jobs in October, even if the shutdownextends past the payroll period that includes October 12. Pooja Sriram+1 212 526 0713pooja.sriram@barclays.comBCI, US •The US federal government was forced into a shutdown on October 1 and will remain so untilCongress extends discretionary spending. Government data releases are on hold. Each weekwill reduce quarterly real GDP growth in Q4 2025 by about 15bp (saar). Absent permanentcuts, the level of GDP will rebound by about the same in Q1 2026. An extended stoppagewould temporarily boost the unemployment rate, but would likely notaffectnonfarm payrollemployment. Colin Johanson+1 212 526 8536colin.johanson@barclays.comBCI, US •This week's trickle of pre-shutdown releases and private data suggest more of the same forthe job market and spending. September estimates from ADP (-32k private) and RevelioLabs (+62k NFP) point to another month of slow job gains. Meanwhile, solid September autosales support another strong gain in real GDP in Q3, even as ISMs remain consistent withlackluster growth. •This configuration likely keeps the data-dependent Fed on course for another 25bp cut at itsend-October meeting, with a relatively high bar for upcoming September employment andinflation data to delay cuts. This week's communications suggest that the FOMC remainsdivided into two camps, with only a narrow majority leaning toward incremental cuts inOctober and December. With no funding extension, the federal government is shut down... With Congress failing to pass legislation to fund the government past the end of FY25,nonessential activities of the federal government were shut down as of October 1, 2025. At thisjuncture, the duration of the shutdown remains unclear, and we see little in the newsflow thatwould point to a quick resolution. To be sure, the scheduled payday for many governmentpersonnel (including the military) on October 15 could serve as a potential pinch point, withmissing paychecks intensifying pressure on legislators. But given the hardened positions onboth sides, our sense is that the impasse will likely to extend through October 18, at the earliest. The impasse mostly reflects an intent by Senate Democrats to reverse health spending cuts,including cuts to Medicaid and funding for premium tax credits that subsidize healthcare plansunder theAffordableCare Act. The Republican side is pushing for a clean continuing resolutionthat would retain current spending levels. Likely to enhance leverage, the administration is threatening to resumelayoffsof thousands of federal government employees in areas that donot align with the president's agenda, such as the Department of Labor (Bloomberg: TrumpPlans to Use Shutdown to Fire Federal Workers this Week, October 1). ...which will weigh on Q4 GDP growth... Available estimates suggest that each week of shutdown will likely reduce quarterly real GDPgrowth in Q4 25 by roughly 15bp, on an annualized basis. This mainly reflects a reduction ingoods and services provided by the ~750k non-essential government workers who will befurloughed during the stoppage period. Although the law requires the salaries of these workersto be paid in arrears, thereby implying payback for nominal GDP within the current quarter, realGDP will be adjusted downward throughout the duration of the stoppage to reflect these lostservice flows. Assuming that the shutdown ends within the quarter, and does not serve asleverage for permanentlayoffs,the level of real GDP in the following quarter will normalize,unwinding the current quarter's drag on growth. Meanwhile, even if the stoppage extendsthroughout the payroll period that includes October 12, the BLS's procedures from January2019 imply that furloughed workers will be counted in October's nonfarm payroll employmentestimate because they will (eventually) be paid for this period. A lengthy stoppage may well leave a broader imprint on activity, such as througheffectsonconsumer or business confidence, or from private sector services consumed by furloughedemployees. Such knock-oneffectstend to be limited, but could intensify if a lengthy andacrimonious impasse instills uncertainty and weighs on confidence. ...and leave an imprint on the data collection and reporting As we discussed in more detail in US government shutdown: Ramifications for e