数字欧元对金融稳定影响的技术数据

The European Central Bank received a formal request from co-legislators fortechnical data on the potential financial stability effects of alternative digitaleuro holding limits.It was specified that the information should encompass a rangeof hypothetical holding limits – up to €3,000 per individual – and aimed to quantifythe potential impacts of each limit. The co-legislators requested that the analysisfocus on certain key areas, including changes in bank deposits (absolute change insight deposits), core liquidity metrics (liquidity coverage ratio and net stable fundingratio), banking profitability indicators (return on equity and return on assets), andlending dynamics (loan book growth and loan-to-deposit ratio). In response, the ECB has produced this technical analysis estimating theextent of these impacts across the specified hypothetical limits. The analysisexamines changes in the level and composition of deposits, implications for banks’liquidity metrics, and the potential effects on their profitability indicators and lendingdynamics, under the modelling and data frameworks that the ECB has constructed inthe course of developing the holding limit methodology. This work builds on the mostadvanced models available, as well as data collected and refined by the ECBspecifically for the development of the methodology, with the objective of respondingto the request as fully as possible and delivering complete technical input.Nonetheless, not all the requests (for example, a breakdown of hypothetical holdinglimits in €250 intervals) could be fully addressed owing to data limitations or becausefulfilling certain requests (for example, providing information on market share byasset size in the respective market) could lead to the identification of individualinstitutions. This document and the numerical results presented should be read solely as atechnical response to the specific request from the co-legislators, and not asthe outcome of the ECB’s full methodological process nor as the ECB’sposition on an appropriate level for holding limits. The estimates outlined in thisdocument are illustrative and reflect an initial and partial application of themethodology currently being developed by the ECB1, rather than an exhaustive assessment. The complete methodology encompasses three pillars2with additionalaspects that extend beyond the scope of this document. Moreover, the hypotheticalholding limits assessed in this analysis are based on the co-legislators’ specificrequests to test a defined range. Consequently, the results presented should not,under any circumstances, be interpreted as representing the official final position ofthe ECB on the appropriate level of holding limits. This document describes the approach used to derive outflow scenarios,including the modelling assumptions and data sources employed.Asrequested, the core of the analysis examines implications under two distinctenvironments – a business-as-usual scenario and a flight-to-safety scenario. Itdiscusses banks’ balance sheet reactions under both scenarios, assessing theconsequent effects on liquidity and funding metrics, as well as the implications forbanks’ profitability. Deriving outflow scenarios This analysis involves assessing potential digital euro demand and itsconsequences for deposit outflows and banks’ balance sheets.The followingparagraphs detail the interconnection of three key elements (digitalisation, outflowsand banks’ reactions) used to assess the possible impact of digital euro demandunder two scenarios – business-as-usual and flight-to-safety. The first element considered is the impact of payment digitalisation trend ondemand for banknotes. It should be recalled that issuing a digital euro would be aresponse to the increasing digitalisation of payments and the diminishing use ofcentral bank money in the form of banknotes. The gradual decline in the use ofbanknotes for payments due to digitalisation corresponds to an increased use ofdeposit-based instruments, which, all else being equal, leads to a commensurateincrease in bank deposits. Based on data from the ECB’s study on the paymentattitudes of consumers in the euro area (SPACE)3, hypothetical values of totalpayments (i.e., including point-of-sale, person-to-person and online) settled with banknotes in 2024 are constructed. For the past, this entails combining the banknoteshare observed in historical SPACE waves with the value of total payments in 2024.For expected future developments, the banknote share is extrapolated based ondifferent methods and data sources and used to derive hypothetical values for thevalue of banknotes used to settle transactions. The average scenario under thisanalysisshows a€127 billion inflow of deposits due to the ongoing digitalisation ofpayments until 2034, which is equal to 0.4% of total banking sector assets or 1.5% oftotal retail sight deposits.4 Second, digital euro holdings and deposit outflows are estimated under abusiness-as-usual and