IMF-立陶宛的发展模式：立陶宛共和国

The Evolving GrowthModel of Lithuania Saioa Armendariz and Alberto Musso SIP/2025/139 IMF Selected Issues Papers are prepared by IMF staff asbackground documentation for periodic consultations withmember countries.It is based on the information available atthe time it was completed on July29, 2025. This paper is alsopublished separately as IMF Country Report No 25/259. 2025OCT IMF Selected Issues PaperEuropean Department The Evolving Growth Model of Lithuania, Republic of LithuaniaPrepared by Saioa Armendariz and Alberto Musso* Authorized for distribution by Kazuko ShironoOctober2025 IMF Selected Issues Papersare prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodicconsultations with member countries.It is based on the information available at the time it wascompleted on July29, 2025. This paper is also published separately as IMF Country Report No 25/259. ABSTRACT:Lithuania has seen strong income convergence since regaining independence, but in recentyears progress in this respect has stalled as the contribution of capital deepening and TFP growth to laborproductivity growth became lackluster. Persisting constraints faced by firms, such as lack of access to credit,low spending in R&D and limited availability of workers with sufficient digital skills, explain low rates ofcorporate investment, productivity and innovation. Looking ahead, targeted structural reforms are essential tosupport a lasting recovery in labor productivity growth. Key structural reforms include changes in labor marketand education needed to reduce skill mismatches and improve labor quality, reforms in the financial sectorallowing for deeper capital markets, and reforms aimed at accelerating to transition to a digitalized economyand a more comprehensive AI preparedness. RECOMMENDED CITATION:Armendariz, S. and A. Musso, 2025, “The Evolving Growth Model of Lithuania.”IMF Selected Issues Paper 2025/139. The Evolving Growth Model ofLithuania Republic of Lithuania Prepared by Saioa Armendariz and Alberto Musso1 REPUBLIC OF LITHUANIA SELECTED ISSUES Approved ByEuropean DepartmentPrepared By Saioa Armendariz and Alberto Musso THE EVOLVING GROWTH MODEL OF LITHUANIA A. Introduction _________________________________________________________________________2B. Output Convergence and Transformation____________________________________________3C. Structural Impediments to Growth ___________________________________________________4D. The Potential Benefits of AI __________________________________________________________5E. Unlocking Productivity Growth via Structural Reforms _______________________________7 FIGURES 1. Drivers of Output Convergence ______________________________________________________32. The Increasing Role of ICT ___________________________________________________________43. Key Drivers of Growth ________________________________________________________________44. Factors Constraining Firm Growth____________________________________________________55. AI Preparedness______________________________________________________________________66. AI and Productivity ___________________________________________________________________6 TABLE 1. Summary of Structural Reforms to Enhance Productivity Growth ____________________7 References______________________________________________________________________________8 THE EVOLVING GROWTH MODEL OF LITHUANIA1 Lithuania has seen strong income convergence since regaining independence, but in recent yearsprogress in this respect has stalled as the contribution of capital deepening and TFP growth to laborproductivity growth became lackluster. Persisting constraints faced by firms, such as lack of access tocredit, low spending in R&D and limited availability of workers with sufficient digital skills, explain lowrates of corporate investment, productivity and innovation. Looking ahead, targeted structural reformsare essential to support a lasting recovery in labor productivity growth. Key structural reforms includechanges in labor market and education needed to reduce skill mismatches and improve labor quality,reforms in the financial sector allowing for deeper capital markets, and reforms aimed at acceleratingto transition to a digitalized economy and a more comprehensive AI preparedness. A.Introduction 1.Lithuania has recently reached key milestones in its European integration, with tenyears in the euro area and two decades in the EU.During this period, it has experienced a rapidincome convergence, with GDP per capita rising by 116% percent. The economic structure has alsoevolved over time, with the rise of higher value-added sectors including ICT contributing toincreasing service exports while favorable migration dynamics in recent years—including theincreasing number of returning Lithuanians and a temporary surge in migration from Ukraine andBelarus—has supported labor markets which would have been otherwise constrained by declininglabor force due to rapid population ag