外国直接投资的变革：当今外国直接投资如何塑造未来的产业与贸易

How foreign direct investment today mayshape industry and trade tomorrow AuthorsTiago DevesaJeongmin SeongOliva WhiteNick LeungMichael BirshanJan MischkeCamillo LamannaMasud Ally Confidential and proprietary. Any use ofthis material without specific permission ofMcKinsey & Company is strictly prohibited. Copyright © 2025 McKinsey & Company.All rights reserved.Cover image © akinbostanci/Getty Images.All interior images © Getty Images. McKinsey Global Institute The McKinsey Global Institute was established in 1990. Our mission is to provide a fact base toaid decision making on the economic and business issues most critical to the world’s companiesand policy leaders. We benefit from the full range of McKinsey’s regional, sectoral, and functionalknowledge, skills, and expertise, but editorial direction and decisions are solely the responsibility ofMGI directors and partners. Our research is currently grouped into five major themes: —Productivity and prosperity: Creating and harnessing the world’s assets most productively—Resources of the world: Building, powering, and feeding the world sustainably—Human potential: Maximizing and achieving the potential of human talent—Global connections: Exploring how flows of goods, services, people, capital, and ideasshape economies—Technologies and markets of the future: Discussing the next big arenas of value and competition We aim for independent and fact-based research. None of our work is commissioned or funded byany business, government, or other institution; we share our results publicly free of charge; and weare entirely funded by the partners of McKinsey. While we engage multiple distinguished externaladvisers to contribute to our work, the analyses presented in our publications are MGI’s alone, andany errors are our own. You can find out more about MGI and our research atwww.mckinsey.com/mgi. MGI directors MGI partners Sven Smit (chair)Chris BradleyKweilin EllingrudSylvain JohanssonNick LeungOlivia WhiteLareina Yee Mekala KrishnanAnu MadgavkarJan MischkeJeongmin Seong Contents At a glance3Introduction4 CHAPTER 1 FDI promises to mold the industries of the future9 CHAPTER 2Multinationals are investing big and increasinglyalong geopolitical lines20 CHAPTER 3How shifts in FDI announcements today may shapeindustry dynamics tomorrow30 CHAPTER 4 Shaping economic competitiveness across the world51 CHAPTER 5 Navigating FDI signals and shifts in a high-stakesenvironment62 Acknowledgments65Endnotes66 At a glance —Foreign direct investment has transformed industries from oil to electronics.Providinginitial funding is just the start; cross-border deals that take root also transfer knowledge andspur ongoing domestic investment. Today’s patterns of greenfield FDI announcements signal anew shake-up. —FDI promises to shape advanced manufacturing, AI infrastructure, and the resources thatpower them.Since 2022, three-quarters of cross-border announcements have gone to thesetypes of future-shaping industries as well as energy and mining projects—up from about halfpre-2020. While not all announcements proceed, historically 60 to 80 percent have. —Pledged investment has increasingly followed geopolitical lines.Advanced economiesannounced more investment into one another—particularly to the United States—but decreasedflows to China by nearly 70 percent. China pivoted from net investee to prominent investor infuture-shaping industries, boosting announcements to Europe, Latin America, and the MiddleEast and North Africa by over two-thirds. Emerging economies attracted investment pledgesfrom across the geopolitical spectrum. —To win globally, multinationals are placing bigger bets.While megadeals over $1 billionrepresent only 1 percent of cross-border deals, they account for half the total value—a jump fromone-third five years ago. New data centers, semiconductor fabs, and battery factories don’tcome cheap. —Stakes are high and change is afoot.If successful, FDI projects announced since 2022 couldmore than quadruple current battery manufacturing capacity outside China, nearly double theglobal data center capacity that powers AI, and draw the United States into the circle of topleading-edge semiconductor-producing nations. Patterns like these can help decision makersanticipate the shifting geometry of global trade and the future map of international business. Introduction Oil. Copper. Semiconductors.Foreign direct investment (FDI) has seeded and transformed theseand many other global industries. Cross-border investments in the late 19th century forged the global oil industry as money andknow-how flowed from the United States and Europe to Baku (present-day Azerbaijan) and Sumatra(modern-day Indonesia), followed by investment around the globe in the 20th century.1Similarly,foreign investments shaped mineral-rich economies. For example, Chile’s position as a world-leading copper exporter for most of the past 140 years was catalyzed by multinational firms thatdev