美国天然气与液化天然气(LNG)

October 2025 Important trends in US natural and LNG markets What will happen with US natural gas prices? What factors could influence their trajectory? Global LNG markets US natural gas pricesAre prices on a long-termupward trajectory? US LNG exports Demand-side trends Supply-side trends How much are LNG exportsfrom the US expected torise? Will the power sectorcontinue to drive domesticdemand growth? How could oil prices andnew infrastructure shapeproduction and pricing? Are global LNG marketsheaded toward a supplyglut? Due to several factors, US natural gas prices are expected to rise over the next 18 months Why does this matter? •Several factors indicate that US natural gas prices will likely riseover the next 18 months; although uncertainties still exist.•This could potentially put upward pressure on electricity prices inthe US, impacting generators, consumers, and businessesdownstream.•At the same time, a global supply glut is expected to emergebetween 2026-29 as global liquefaction capacity rises nearly 40%.•However, lower global LNG prices could boost demand from price-sensitive countries in South and Southeast Asia. Four factors play key roles in influencing prices: 1.Oil prices:About 37% of US natural gas is produced as abyproduct of oil production, so oil prices could influence naturalgas production.2.Power demand: Demand for natural gas from the power sectorcould be impacted by trends in electrification and data centergrwoth.3.Infrastructure:In the longer term, increased pipeline capacityfrom low-cost supply areas could help lower prices (at leastregionally).4.LNG exports:LNG exports are expected to rise through 2026 as6.4 bcf/d of US LNG export capacity comes online. US natural gas production continues to grow, reaching record highs of 108 bcf/d in July 2025 •In 2025, US dry gasproduction hit record highs, driven by the Permian Basin,which surpassed 20 bcf/d in April.1•Since mostPermiangas is a byproduct of oil production, lower oil pricescould reduce both oil and gas output. Producers may have to move to highercost sources of natural gas production.•While breakevens are low in theMarcellus/Utica($2.00-2.50/MMBtu),production has stalled due to limited pipeline capacity stemming frompermitting challenges in the 2010s.3•Breakevens in theHaynesvillerange from $2.00-2.50/MMBtu in core areasto $3.50-3.75/MMBtu in emerging areas. Haynesville is likely to benefitsfrom being close to new sources of LNG exports.3 New pipeline capacity could debottleneck several areas, impacting regional pricing Interstate pipeline buildout stalled in the NE US in 2019/2021 as projects faced legaluncertainty. The current administration has made “unleashing American energydominance” a priority and that may include streamlining the permitting process, whichcould lead to more capacity and changes to regional pricing dynamics. Rising price volatility could incentivize more storage capacity •Natural gas is typically injected into storage during the summer when prices are low and withdrawn in the winter when prices are high. When the pricedifference between seasons remains large over time, it encourages investment in new storage capacity—at least, that’s how it has worked historically. •However, over the past decade,seasonal price spreads have narroweddue to a combination of higher production and higher demand from the powersector. So, while natural gas production grew at a CAGR of 3.7%, working storage capacity has increased by just 0.04% over the same period.3 •That could change. An increase in power demand and LNG exportscould raise price volatility. For example, if a hurricane disrupts LNG exports, severalbcf/d of gas could remain in the domestic market, putting pressure on prices. That could incentivize the buildout of more storage capacity—especiallysalt dome facilities capable of multiple injection and withdrawal cycles per year. Companies could capture value by injecting that volume into storage forfuture use. •In short, storage is no longer just about serving seasonal demand.Intra-seasonal flexibility could become critical. Domestic gas consumption growth is likely being driven primarily by the electric power sector •Looking ahead,electricity demand could tripleby 2050, driven by data centers ,industrial growth, and electrification.3 •Data center electricity demand is expected to rise from 33 MW in 2024 to 176 GW in2035. This could translate into3-12 bcf/d of incremental gas demand by 2030froma growing pipeline of natural gas plants.4 •More than 99 GW of gas-fired capacity is planned across 38 states; yet, manytop data center markets have constrained gas pipeline capacity.3 •Industrial demandhas grown at a CAGR rate of 1.1% over the past decade and mayaccelerate due to industrial reshoring and electrification.2 US LNG export growth is expected to drive US natural gas demand over the next five years •The EIA projectsU.S. LNG exports will rise 37%from 11.9 to 16.3bcf/d between 2024 and 2026