“前所未见”：在历史性逼空行情下，白银交易商将银条涌入伦敦；高盛仍看好黄金

“前所未⻅”：在历史性逼空⾏情下，⽩银交易商将银条涌⼊伦敦；⾼盛仍看好⻩⾦ BY TYLER DURDEN TUESDAY, OCT 14, 2025 - 01:00 AM “I have seen nothing like it ever. What we are seeing in silver is entirelyunprecedented,”said Anant Jatia, chief investment officer at Greenland InvestmentManagement, a commodities hedge fund. ⼤宗商品对冲基⾦格陵兰投资管理公司的⾸席投资官阿南特·贾蒂亚表⽰：“我从未⻅过这样的情况。我们在⽩银市场看到的景象是完全前所未有的。” “There is no liquidity available currently.” “⽬前没有可⽤的流动性。” That sentiment is echoing around the world (as we detailed earlier about India funds haltingSilver ETF investments) withBloomberg reportingthe squeeze has become so dramatic thatsome traders have rushed to book slots in the cargo holds of transatlantic flights for bulkysilver bars— an expensive mode of transport typically reserved for more valuable gold — toprofit off the massive premiums in London. 这种情绪正在全球范围内蔓延（正如我们earlier详细报道的印度基⾦暂停⽩银ETF投资⼀事），彭博社报道称，这种挤压已变得极为严重，以⾄于⼀些交易员纷纷抢占跨⼤西洋航班货舱的仓位，⽤来运输bulky的⽩银条——这种昂贵的运输⽅式通常是为更贵重的⻩⾦预留的——⽬的是从伦敦的巨额溢价中获利。 This suggests that traders are following Goldman's path on 'How to solve it?' that we previouslynoted: 这表明交易员们正在遵循⾼盛关于“如何解决这个问题？”的思路，这⼀点我们之前已经指出过： Find LBMA bars, fly to London, and deliver against XAG backwardation(simplistically), but logistics / LBMA liquidity (lack thereof) make it challengingbecause 找到伦敦⾦银市场协会的⾦条，⻜往伦敦，并针对⽩银的现货溢价进⾏交割（简单来说），但物流/伦敦⾦银市场协会的流动性（缺乏）使其具有挑战性，因为 1.There are multiple vaults in the US where CMX longs will take delivery; we thinklogistical companies will take 2-3 weeks to aggregate the metal (before flying toLondon) 美国有多个⾦库可供CMX多头进⾏交割；我们认为物流公司需要2到3周的时间来汇总⾦属（之后再空运⾄伦敦）。2.Not all CMX brands are LBMA deliverable which creates further logistical delays并⾮所有CMX品牌都符合LBMA的交割要求，这进⼀步造成了物流延误。3.It’s unlikely that Dec CMX longs will receive physical until the end of the deliverywindow (late Dec) which increases financing costs and adds uncertainty aroundwhere to short LBMA12⽉CMX多头不太可能在交割窗⼝结束前（12⽉下旬）收到实物，这会增加融资成本，并给伦敦⾦银市场协会（LBMA）的做空点位带来不确定性。 And LBMA forward liquidity has evaporated meaning EFP related XAG shorts canonly be placed on spot, which likely explains t/n rolling at 200% 伦敦⾦银市场协会（LBMA）的远期流动性已经枯竭，这意味着与交易所基⾦（EFP）相关的⽩银（XAG）空头头⼨只能在现货市场建⽴，这或许解释了隔夜掉期利率⾼达200%的原因。 All in:总⽽⾔之： We think within 1-2 weeks we’ll see significant physical inflows from China andthe US into LBMA and the curve ultimately eases, but the path will be bumpy,euphemistically speaking. “委婉地说，我们认为在1-2周内，我们将看到来⾃中国和美国的⼤量实体资⾦流⼊伦敦⾦银市场协会（LBMA），曲线最终会趋缓，但过程将是崎岖不平的。” However, judging by the still massively elevated level of annualized 1 month silver lease rates,the market is anything but ready to clear (or discount any clearing event): 然⽽，从仍处于极⾼⽔平的年化1个⽉⽩银租赁利率来看，市场远未准备好完成清算（或对任何清算事件进⾏贴现）： The recent price surge has been driven in large part by a wave of investment into both gold andsilver, spurred by fears of rising debt levels in the West and devaluation of currencies - a movethat has accelerated amid the US government budget standoff and shutdown. 近期⾦价和银价的飙升在很⼤程度上是由⼀波对⻩⾦和⽩银的投资热潮推动的，这股热潮源于对西⽅债务⽔平上升和货币贬值的担忧——在美国政府预算僵局和停摆的背景下，这⼀趋势进⼀步加速。 But the squeeze also reflects dynamics specific to silver, withmarket participants pointing to asudden jump in demand from India in recent weeks, combined with a dwindling supply ofavailable bars to trade and worries that the metal could be hit with US tariffs. 但这种挤压也反映了⽩银特有的动态，市场参与者指出，近⼏周印度的需求突然激增，同时可交易银条的供应不断减少，且⼈们担⼼这种⾦属可能会受到美国关税的打击。 In another sign of the stress in the market, bid-ask spreads for London silver blew out from theirtypical levels of around 3 cents an ounce to well over 20 cents an ounce. 市场压⼒的另⼀个迹象是，伦敦银的买卖价差从通常的每盎司约3美分⼤幅扩⼤⾄远超过20美分。 “Banks don’t want to quote each other, so the quotes get extremely wide,”saidRobert Gottlieb, a former precious metals trader and managing director at JPMorganChase & Co. “银⾏不愿互相报价，因此报价区间变得极为宽泛，”摩根⼤通前贵⾦属交易员、董事总经理罗伯特·⼽特利布表⽰。 “That’s creating this tremendous illiquidity.”“这造成了严重的流动性不⾜。” Bloomberg reports that one executive at alogistics company said he had been receivingcalls with growing urgency for the past week from customers seeking to take silver out ofvaults linked to New York’s Comex and fly it to London. 彭博社报道，⼀家物流公司的⼀位⾼管表⽰，过去⼀周，他接到的电话越来越紧急，客⼾们希望将存放在与纽约商品交易所（Comex）相关的⾦库中的⽩银取出，并空运⾄伦敦。 He estimated that traders were currently seeking to move some 15 million to 30 million ounces ofsilver from New York to London. 他估计，交易商⽬前正寻求将约1500万⾄3000万盎司的⽩银从纽约转移到伦敦。 COMEX vaults...纽约商品交易所⾦库…… On Friday, Comex saw its largest one-day withdrawal of silver in more than four years. 周五，纽约商品交易所（Comex）出现了四年多来最⼤规模的单⽇⽩银提取量。 “There’ll be a natural momentum for material to move back into London andhopefully things will normalize,”said Joseph Stefans, head of trading at MKSPamp SA, one of the world’s biggest precious-metals refiners. 全球最⼤的贵⾦属精炼商之⼀MKS Pamp SA的交易主管约瑟夫·斯特凡斯表⽰：“资⾦⾃然会有回流伦敦的势头，希望情况能恢复正常。” “It’s just a question of mobilizing those balances that are sitting elsewhere inthe world and moving them back to London.” “这只是⼀个调动全球其他地⽅的资⾦余额并将其转回伦敦的问题。” Goldman's Precious Metals analyst, Lina Thomas, believ