富途控股：开创一站式金融服务平台，借势加密货币发展

Pioneered one-stop financial services platformto ride on crypto advancements; Initiate BUY cryptoadvancements;Initiate Futu Holdings Limited (FUTU US) is a leading tech-driven financial services platformwith global geographic exposure across eight markets to provide clients with trading,wealth management, market data and information and corporate services based onits one-stopFutubullandMoomoo. Its superior user experience is key to break intoa new marketand win paying clients from traditional brokerage, while the underlyingtechnology infrastructurewhich consistently renovates, enriches this moat. We viewprogressive marketexpansions and increments of crypto and wealth managementproduct supply as key drivers to enhance net asset inflow and thusearnings stability.In FY25E-28E,we estimate the broker’s total revenue/non-GAAP net income to riseat a 12%/14% CAGR, driven by strong momentum in client acquisition and net assetinflows combined with improving operating efficiency.We initiate BUY with targetpriceofUS$224based onprobability-weighted valuationof DCF andatarget P/E(x),which implies26x/23x FY25/26E P/E, still at a 26% discountvs. globalpeers. Weexpectthis discounttonarrow,alongside expanding overseas market contributions.Strategic market entry amplifies synergies.Futu is the largest retailbrokerin Target PriceUS$224.00Up/Downside41.3%Current PriceUS$158.50 Non-bankingFinancials Nika MA(852) 3900 0805nikama@cmbi.com.hk HK and expands its operation into seven overseas markets across the UnitedStates (US, 2018), Singapore (SG, 2021), Australia (AU, 2022), Japan (JP,2023), Canada (CA, 2023), Malaysia (MY, 2024) and New Zealand (NZ, 2025).By leveraging existing markets’ brand equity, product and marketing experience,and execution capabilities, Moomoo is able to rapidly ramp up rollouts for marketshare gains and improve operating leverage. Operating margin rose from 17.7%in FY19 to 48.7% in FY24, and further enhanced to 63.0% in 2Q25, up 13.0pctfrom year-start. Moomoo MY recorded the fastest sequential growth of fundedaccounts among all markets, where we expect it made up a 10% mix by 2Q25.In May, Moomoo NZ was launched in a high ROI with synergies of Moomoo AU.Four pillars underpin a flywheel of earnings growth.Futu has developed into four key pillars of business including securities brokerage, margin financing andsecurities lending, wealth management, and corporate services. Brokerage setsthe ground for client acquisition and earnings growth, given the broker’s gene inretail. We see robust client acquisition and AUM growth at 70%/62% CAGR inFY16-24, driving trading volume up ata58% CAGR within the period.In2Q25,new funded accounts rose to 466k, reaching 58% of the 800k full-year guidance.Wealth management serves as an earnings anchor amidheightenedvolatilities,for which the penetrationtoclientAUM ralliedto 16.8% by 2Q25. In FY22-24,brokerage income/interest income/other income grew at 23%/44%/50% CAGR.Gaining grounds in AI/crypto advancement.Futu is on track building a crypto- Source: FactSet Auditor: PricewaterhouseCoopers related infrastructure to bridge the gap of crypto and finance world on a one-stopprofile. In 2Q25, crypto asset balance on the platform reached HK$4bn, up 40%QoQ with maximum daily trading volumeofUS$40mn in July, per mgmt. Weestimate that crypto asset under custody made up 0.3%-0.4% of client AUM in1Q/2Q25, which contributed 0.4%-0.5% of the period revenue (Table17A). Weexpect Futu’s crypto asset under custody (AuC) to scale up to8%-10% of clientAUM in FY27E, and generate an additional revenue of HK$2.4-3.1bn (Table18).Initiate BUYwith TP ofUS$224.Our target price is derived fromaprobability- weightedmethodof DCF andatarget P/E, which implies 26x/23x FY25/26E P/E.We like Futu forits diversifiedearnings exposure, robust client AUM growth, andenriching AI/crypto matrix. The stockis trading at19x/17x FY25/26E P/E, whichis undemanding vs. peers and we expect itssolid fundamentalto boostre-rating.Earnings Summary ContentsInvestment Thesis..........................................................................4Strategic market entranceamplifies cross-market synergies................................4Four pillars of business reinforce a flywheel of earnings growth..........................4Upbeat on the rise of crypto advancements to boost earnings outlook................5Key Charts......................................................................................7Pioneered one-stopprofile acceleratinggrowth potential.........8Global footprintpositioned to a cross-marketdiversification.10Riding on tailwinds of an increasingTAM of crypto adoption.12Steam ahead in a share gain narrative amid franchise expansion.......................................................................................................16Hong Kong:The backbone of Futu’s business contributing 1/3 of fundedaccounts............................................................................................