资金流向观察：信贷市场承压

Krunchy Kredit 02 October 2025 Scores on the Doors: gold 45.4%, bitcoin 28.7%, international stocks 24.6%, US stocks14.2%, IG bonds 9.9%, HY bonds 9.6%, govt bonds 7.3%, commodities 3.5%, cash 3.3%,US dollar -9.8%, oil -15.4% YTD. Investment StrategyGlobal Zeitgeist:“These credit cracks a big deal, but not big enough to put top in right now.” The Price is Right: each of past 5 months monthly low for S&P 500 printed on 1sttrading day of month…first time this has happened since 1928. Tale of the Tape: record $152bn inflows to global equity ETFs past 3 weeks; MMFAAUM ($7.3tn) as % SPX market cap = 13%, since 1990 has only been lower in 2017-2018 and 2021-2022. Michael HartnettInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 1508michael.hartnett@bofa.com The Biggest Picture: entrenched trends corporations>governments, passive>active;changing trends…war to peace, Fed independence to deference, open borders to bordercontrol, US exceptionalism to global rebalancing = gold & int’l H2’2020s (Chart 2). Elyas Galou>>Investment StrategistBofASE (France)+33 1 8770 0087elyas.galou@bofa.com Chart2:First-half 2020s vs second-half 2020sInvestment Themes H1-2020 vs H2-2020 Anya ShelekhinInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 3753anya.shelekhin@bofa.com Myung-Jee JungInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 0389myung-jee.jung@bofa.com More on page 2… Source:BofA Global Investment Strategy The indicatoridentified above as the BofA Bull & Bear Indicator isintended to be an indicative metric only and may not beused for reference purposes or as a measure ofperformance for any financial instrument or contract, orotherwise relied upon by third parties for any otherpurpose, without the prior written consent of BofAGlobal Research. This indicator was not created to act asa benchmark.BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH Trading ideas and investment strategies discussed herein may give rise to significant risk and arenot suitable for all investors. Investors should have experience in relevant markets and the financialresources to absorb any losses arising from applying these ideas or strategies.>> Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst under the FINRA rules.Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Securities entities that take responsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictions.BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Refer to important disclosures on page 11 to 13.12882108 Timestamp: 02 October 2025 11:51PM EDT Weekly Flows: $26.0bn to stocks, $20.8bn to cash, $19.9bn to bonds, $5.9bn to gold,$2.9bn to crypto. Flows to Know: •Treasuries: $7.5bn outflow, 6thbiggest outflow ever;•EM debt: $3.7bn inflow…on course for 2ndlargest annual inflow ($63bn);•Global equities: $114bn inflows in past 3 weeks, 3rdhighest ever;•Global equity ETFs: $152bn inflows in past 3 weeks, biggest on record;•Tech: $9.3bn weekly inflow, biggest on record;•Financials: $3.3bn inflow…on course for 2ndlargest annual inflow ($29bn);•Healthcare: $33mn inflow…note sector annualizing record $17bn outflow (Chart 12);•Materials: $5.9bn inflow…sector annualizing record $71bn inflow. BofA Private Clients:$4.2tn AUM…64.7% stocks (highest since Mar’22), 18.0% bonds(lowest since May’22), 10.3% cash (lowest since Sep’18); private clients buying preciousmetals, EM debt, Japan ETFs vs selling healthcare, staples, energy ETFs past 4 weeks. BofA Bull & Bear Indicator: up from 6.2 to 6.5, a 12-month high on big inflows tostocks and stronger global stock index breadth (80% of ACWI country indices trading>50-day & 200-day moving averages). Global Flow Trading Rule:when inflows to global equities & high yield bonds >1.0% ofAUM in 4 weeks…sell, and when outflows >1.0% of AUM...buy; past 4 weeks inflows tostocks/HY bonds = 0.9% of AUM…close to“sell signal”; triggered if global equity fundinflows >$20bn and HY bond inflows >$1.5bn next week. From Zero to Hero: we are long zero-coupon bonds; Fed cutting, US Treasury needslower yields, AI (robots>humans) = less jobs (seePAYX, MAN, RHI), while credit spreads,banks, KOSPI, DAX say Fed cutting into acceleration, oil, truckers, homebuilders,chemicals say opposite, andvery few allocators in world have a lick of duration in theirportfolio. Lovely Bubbly: we are long resources, UK stocks to play AI bubble; bubbles = booms =best played via barbell of bubble (AI) and cheap cyclical assets (that’s commoditiestoday, as AI devours commodities); price action, valuation, concentration, speculation allfrothy, and lead indicators of inflation inflecting higher (ISM services prices paid rising),but every bubble in history popped by central bank tightening, and no central bank in theworl