宏观综述：依赖数据的美联储可能会在没有常用工具包的情况下采取行动，因为政府推迟了关键的经济数据发布

Limited visibility A data dependent Fed may act without its usual toolkit, asthe shutdown delays key economic releases. Jennifer Cardilli*+1 212 526 8351jennifer.cardilli@barclays.comBCI, US The Macro Wrapis your weekly, need-to-know guide to our key macro views, implications formarkets and trending research. Jill Nentwig*+ 1 212 526 5129jillian.nentwig@barclays.comBCI, US Join us for Thursday Macro on 9 Oct at 7:45am NYT were we will be discussing 'Wheredid all the US rate vol go?' Sharon Mutiti*+44 (0)20 7773 1208sharon.mutiti@barclays.comBarclays, UK TheUSfederal government shutdown on 1 October halted key data releases, including theSeptember payrolls report and CPI, andleftthe Fed “flying blind” ahead of its 29 Octoberpolicy meeting.AI is driving the capex surge. For more, listen to theFlip Sidepodcast whereBradRogoffand Venu Krishna debate whether dotcom comparisons are misplaced. PatrickCoffey*+44 (0)20 3555 5955patrick.coffey@barclays.comBarclays, UK Euro areaheadline inflation rose to 2.2% in September, due to energy baseeffects;coreinflation remained steady at 2.3%. EU equities broke out of a six-month range this week, withtactical risk-reward now compelling. In theUK,attention turns to the 26 November Budget following a high-profile Labour Partyconference. China’sSeptember PMIs showed supply-side recovery, but domestic demand remains weak.Services and auto salessoftened,and the gap between new orders and exports hit a new low,signalling continued pressure on consumption and growth. InJapan, Sanae Takaichi was elected as LDP president, with her first challenge being to finda coalition partner. With rate hikes now looking acceptable, January is still our base case forthe next BoJ hike. JPY weakness and JGB twist-steepening are likely to continue in the nearterm. M&A volumesare forecast to rise by 15% y/y. Our collaborative report on US bank M&A waswell timed. Thisdocument is intended for institutional investors and is not subject to all of theindependence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports prepared for retailinvestors under U.S. FINRA Rule 2242. Barclays trades the securities covered in this report for itsown account and on a discretionary basis on behalf of certain clients. Such trading interestsmay be contrary to the recommendationsofferedin this report. * This individual is a member of the Product Management Group and is not a Research Analyst All research referenced herein has been previously published. You can view the full reports,including analyst certifications and other important disclosures, by clicking the hyperlinks inthis publication or by going to our Research portal on Barclays Live. Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page 9.Completed: 06-Oct-25, 09:50 GMTReleased: 06-Oct-25, 09:51 GMTRestricted - External Barclays Research Highlights US government shutdown: Ramifications for economic data andmarkets As we had expected, a US government shutdown has delayed data collection and publicationfrom key agencies, including the BLS. Rates markets will likely focus on the economic outlookand uncertainty from missing data, not funding risks, and inflation markets may beaffectedbypostponed CPI releases. Tariffsand inflation: A slow burn Tariffsare increasing prices more slowly than in 2018-19, but the pass-through is similarafterafew months. We predict a cumulative price leveleffectof c.1% to core PCE due to moderate(7.5-10bp per month), yet persistent, monthly tailwinds, which begin to taper from January. Barclays Key Macro Views US Outlook •We expect two further 25bp cuts this year (October and December), followed by two more in•2026 and another in 2027. Powell’s tone was hawkish, stressing data dependence and a highbar for aggressive easing. •We continue to track a 2.7% q/q saar increase in real GDP in the current quarter following•Q2's 3.8% q/q saar gain, which suggests some upside risks to ourofficialestimate of 2.0% q/qsaar. Euro Area Outlook •The ECB says it is in a good place; our economists expect the ECB will remain on hold in•October and cut by 25bp in December to 1.75%. •We continue to expect real GDP growth of 1.3% for 2025 and 1.0% for 2026, supported by•factors including stronger-than-expected H1 25 growth and euro appreciation. UK Outlook •We revise our 2025 GDP forecast to 1.4% (+0.2pp) and 2026 to 1.4% (+0.1pp) following the•revisions to 2024 and ONS seasonal adjustments. •We expect the BoE to cut rates twice; in November 2025 and February 2026 bringing Bank•Rate to 3.5%. MPC messaging and an upward CPI path make this more finely balanced. Japan Outlook •Sanae Takaichi has been elected as LDP president. As a disciple of Abenomics, Takaichi•favours fiscal and monetary expansion. However, since last fall, she has signalled a moremeasured approach, emphasising fiscal prudence alongside expansion. •January remains our base case for the next BoJ hike by 25bp, when the momentum of next•