新兴市场季度展望：充分利用

Making the most of it Fed easing, a manageable slowdown in global growth andsubdued market volatility provide a benign backdrop for EMassets. But given tight valuations in EM credit and divergencein local monetary policy cycles, asset selection andidiosyncratic factors are likely to be key drivers ofperformance. EconomicsChristian Keller+44 (0) 20 7773 2031christian.keller@barclays.comBarclays, UK Gabriel Casillas+ 1 212 526 7814gabriel.casillas@barclays.comBCI, US Ercan Erguzel+44 (0) 20 3555 2564ercan.erguzel@barclays.comBarclays, UK Brian Tan+65 6308 5798brian.tan@barclays.comBarclays Bank, Singapore Credit StrategyAndreas Kolbe+44 (0) 20 3134 3134andreas.kolbe@barclays.comBarclays, UK EM Economic & Strategy Outlook Jason Keene+1 212 526 7275jason.keene@barclays.comBCI, US Fed easing, a manageable slowdown in global growth and subdued market volatility provide abenign backdrop for EM assets. But given tight valuations in EM credit and divergence in localmonetary policy cycles, asset selection and idiosyncratic factors are likely to be key drivers ofperformance. Avanti Save, CFA+65 6308 3116avanti.save@barclays.comBarclays Bank, Singapore EM Heat Maps A comparative overview of EM country metrics. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 FX & EM Macro Strategy Andrea Kiguel+1 212 526 8954andrea.kiguel@barclays.comBCI, US Mitul Kotecha+ 65 6308 5439mitul.kotecha@barclays.comBarclays Bank, Singapore Thisdocument is intended for institutional investors and is not subject to all of theindependence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports prepared for retailinvestors under U.S. FINRA Rule 2242. Barclays trades the securities covered in this report for itsown account and on a discretionary basis on behalf of certain clients. Such trading interestsmay be contrary to the recommendationsofferedin this report. Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page 193.Completed: 24-Sep-25, 04:42 GMTReleased: 24-Sep-25, 04:50 GMTRestricted - External Emerging Asia Gravity is only a suggestion. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 Exports have unexpectedly remained on a gravity-defying upcycle despite US importtariffs–and continued resilience will likely keep central banks in some of the region's more export-oriented economies wary against setting monetary policy too accommodative. EM Asia Trade Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42 Emerging Europe, Middle East and Africa Need for speed. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86 Countries in our region have been laggards in growth compared to EMs in other regions. Thesubdued performance primarily has been related to negativeeffectsof unfavourablegeopolitics, domestic politics and more hawkish monetary policy than in the past. These factorsare unlikely to change soon. EEMEA Trade Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90 Latin America Political haze. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129 Latin America nears elections, with rising support for right-leaning candidates. Argentina andMexico show fiscal gains, while others struggle. Growth is backed by steady demand and labormarkets, as central banks carefully adjust rates when possible, amid a supportive easing stancefrom the Fed. Latin America Trade Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .135 Emerging Markets Global forecasts and financial indicators. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .181 EM sovereign and corporate creditSummary of credit ratings. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 188 EM Economic & Strategy Outlook Making the most of it Fed easing, a manageable slowdown in global growth andsubdued market volatility provide a benign backdrop for EMassets. But given tight valuations in EM credit and divergencein local monetary policy cycles, asset selection andidiosyncratic factors are likely to be key drivers ofperformance. Economics Christian Keller+44 (0) 20 7773 2031christian.keller@barclays.comBarclays, UK Gabriel Casillas+ 1 212 526 7814gabriel.casillas@barclays.comBCI, US Local:Fed easing should continue to support EM FX, as the US gradually moderates andglobal growth holds up, keeping vol contained. This doesn’t mechanically change much forEM front-end rates, however. We see scope fordifferentiation,with central banks' reactionfunctions putting greater weight on their own inflation, especially those in the fine-tuningphase of the cycle. We think historically tight spreads to the US are warranted, as the US hasbecome a little less “risk-free” and EM is perceived to be a littl