核心实物白银投资市场

Market Trend Report Key Physical SilverInvestment Markets Prepared by Metals Focus August 2025 Contents 1.Introduction3 2.United States6 3.India13 4.Germany22 5.Australia30 Chapter 1 Introduction & Summary Introduction Physical investment is an integral part of global silver demand, and isundoubtedly the most volatile. Over the past 15 years it has ranged betweena series low of 157.2Moz (4,891t)in 2017and a record high of 337.6Moz(10,501t), established in 2022. From a market share standpoint, in 2010, totalsilver bar and coin investment accounted for 20% of global demand. By2015, its share had jumped to 28%, but just two years later its contributionhad fallen to just 16%, a position that has been revisited in 2024 and also,basis Metals Focus’ latest forecast, for this year as well. Another characteristic that stands out is the degree of marketconcentration. Just four countries, the US, India, Germany and Australia,account for around 80% of global silver physical investment. Thiscompares with around 60% for the top four in the gold market. The finalpoint to note is that the trends in retail investment are not always asstraightforward as being an industrialized : emerging market split. It is forthese reasons that the Silver Institute commissioned Metals Focus to takea closer look at physical investment in these four markets, providing somehistorical context, which in turn should help to explain current trends thatcharacterize these countries’ silver bar and coin demand. Summary Looking first at theUS, this traditionally being the largest physical silverinvestment market. However, in 2018 and 2019, it was overtaken by India,an outcome which looks set to be repeated this year. This aside, the scaleof US buying has been staggering. Between 2010-2024, a combinedtotal of 1.5bn oz (46,160t) was purchased by retail investors, averaging98.9Moz/y (3,077t). At its height during 2021-23, retail demand averageda phenomenal 131.5Moz/y (4,091t). One increasingly important driver ofUS demand over the past decade or so has been the personal pensionmarket, known as Independent Retirement Accounts (IRAs). The popularityof these IRAs has grown sharply, but interestingly those IRAs featuringprecious metals still account for a very small share of the total IRA marketin the US. This in turn suggests there is still considerable room for preciousmetal IRA demand to grow. Another stand-out feature of the US physical investment market throughto late-2023 was the exceptionally low level of retail liquidations. As such,much of the 1.5bn oz (46,160t) acquired over the past 15 years is still heldby US investors. Even so, selling back first emerged in late 2023 and hascontinued well into 2025. As such, demand for newly struck coins and barshas fallen sharply so far this year, with total US retail investment likely to hita seven-year low in 2025. Turning toIndia, this has typically been the world’s second largest physicalinvestment market, but on occasion has eclipsed the US to hold the number one spot. The country has a long-standing tradition of owningphysical silver, typically in bar form. To put this into context, between 2010-24, cumulative Indian bar and coin demand stood at 840Moz (26,100t).In a broadly similar fashion to the US, these holdings have generallybeen quite sticky, reflecting Indian investors’ typically bullish priceexpectations. However, there have been brief periods when the markethas seen heavy liquidations, such as in 2020 when the rupee silver pricesurged. Nonetheless, this selling back has usually been short-lived. It isalso quite revealing that in the current market, with the rupee silver pricehitting successive records highs and breaking through the psychologicallyimportant Rs.100,000/kg level the scale of selling back has beensurprisingly modest. This mostly reflects how deeply held positive priceexpectations are in India, with many investors looking for the internationalprice to revisit its record high in dollar terms. Although this report focuses on bar and coin demand, with regards toIndia it is worth briefly touching on the exchange-traded product (ETP)market. These were launched there in 2022, but initially struggled to gainmuch traction. That, however, has changed significantly over the past 18months or so, with holdings (as of end-June) exceeding 58Moz (1,800t),a jump of 51% since end-2024. While these ETPs do offer an alternativeroute for Indian investors looking to gain exposure to the silver market, ourunderstanding is that instead they have served to broaden the investorbase by appealing to those already active in the equities market, whotypically might not have bought physical metal. In terms of recent trends, Indian physical silver investment surged in 2022,to its highest since 2015. Although purchases fell back sharply in 2023they remained historically high in absolute terms. Furthermore, 2024 sawa modest recovery, helped by the surprise bullion duty cut in July. Thatled to a st