危地马拉的公共投资效率、增长和债务可持续性（英）

Public InvestmentEfficiency, Growth andDebt Sustainability inGuatemala Andrea Paloschi SIP/2025/129 IMF Selected Issues Papers are prepared by IMF staff asbackground documentation for periodic consultations withmember countries.It is based on the information available atthe time it was completed on July 31, 2025. This paper is alsopublished separately as IMF Country Report No 25/261. 2025SEP IMF Selected Issues Paper Western Hemisphere Department Public Investment Efficiency, Growth and Debt Sustainability in GuatemalaPrepared by Andrea Paloshi (RES) Authorized for distribution by Alex CuliucSeptember2025 IMF Selected Issues Papersare prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodicconsultations with member countries.It is based on the information available at the time it wascompleted on July 31, 2025. This paper is also published separately as IMF Country Report No 25/261. ABSTRACT:Despite having moderate levels of public debt sovereign spreads, Guatemala is a country withlimited levels of public investment efficiency (PIE) that actively constrain much needed infrastructure and socialinvestment. This Selected Issues Paper (SIP) analyzes the effects of improving PIE on key real, fiscal andexternal macroeconomic indicators and finds that higher PIE would allow Guatemala to sustain higher levels ofexternal debt, weaker fiscal balances and current account balances without worsening sovereign risk premia.The overall effect amplifies the welfare benefits of higher PIE for households through higher privateconsumption. RECOMMENDED CITATION:Paloschi, Andrea, 2025. Public Investment Efficiency, Growth and DebtSustainability in Guatemala. IMF Selected Issues Paper 2025/129. Public Investment Efficiency,Growth and Debt Sustainability inGuatemala Prepared by Andrea Paloschi GUATEMALA SELECTED ISSUES ApprovedByWestern HemisphereDepartment Prepared ByAndrea Paloschi (RES) FIGURES 1. Gross Domestic Product ____________________________________________________________22A. Debt to GDP _______________________________________________________________________32B. Sovereign Spreads _________________________________________________________________33A. Primary Balance to GDP ___________________________________________________________33B. Fiscal Balance to GDP ______________________________________________________________34. Impulse Response Functions ________________________________________________________55. Improved Efficiency: Long-Run Statistics ____________________________________________6 BOXES 1. A Small Open Economy Sovereign Default Model for Guatemala ___________________7 References_____________________________________________________________________________9 PUBLIC INVESTMENT EFFICIENCY, GROWTH ANDDEBT SUSTAINABILITY IN GUATEMALA1 Increasing public spending efficiency is a key policy goal for Guatemala. What would be the expectedconsequences of such an increase on growth, consumption, debt policy, sovereign spreads and theexternal position? This study uses a standard open-economy sovereign default model calibrated toreplicate observed patterns of public debt and sovereign spreads for the period 2012–24. Improvingpublic spending efficiency to levels comparable with Costa Rica (approximately 20 percent) couldproduce a 2.3 percent increase in consumption and GDP, a 0.7 percent increase in debt-to-GDP withno increases in sovereign spreads. Higher levels of efficiency improvements generally help sustaininghigher long-run levels of public debt-to-GDP without negative effects on sovereign spreads and thecurrent account balance. A.Economic Development in Guatemala 1.Guatemala’s gross domestic product has increased by 3.5 percent on average from2012 to 2023 (Figure 1).The country has experienced sustained and steady growth after the GreatRecession, with growth rates around 3.5 percent from 2012 to 2019. The COVID-19 pandemiccaused a 1.8 percent drop in GDP, but Guatemala has managed to recover strongly in 2021, 2022and 2023, and returning to its historical growth rates. 2.Public debt-to-GDP remains lowaround 27 percent of GDP and sovereignspreads are moderate (Figure 2). Guatemala’s public finances are healthy, witha debt-to-GDP ratio that has remained on asustainable path over the years, with anincrement of almost 5 percentage points in2020, followed by a rapid convergencetowards historical values. Despite moderatevolatility, sovereign spreads have remainedin a neighborhood of 2.4 percent, with apeak of 2.8 percent in 2020 and end-2024spreads are below 2 percent. 3.Guatemala’s debt stability has been sustained by moderate primary and overall fiscaldeficits (Figure 3).The country has recorded moderate negative primary balances, mainlydetermined by the COVID-19 pandemic (-3.2 percent). At end-2024 Guatemala has recorded aprimary surplus close to 0.6 percent of GDP. The prudent fiscal policy, and the sustainable levels ofpublic debt and sovereign spreads have translated into moderate level