游戏行业：预测市场入局同局投注；现状与未来展望

Prediction markets enter the parlay fray;what’s happening and what’s next? Industry Overview OSB operators take a hitfollowing recent Kalshi headlinesOn Monday night, Kalshi launched same game parlays for the two Monday Night NFL 01 October 2025 games, moving further into regulated sport-betting platforms’markets, specifically Buy-rated Draftking and Flutter. Following this product expansion and headlines aboutaccelerating weekly volumes for Kalshi, OSB stocks declined 10-12% yesterday.Prediction market risks (see our reports hereandhere) faded over the summer as OSB EquityUnited StatesGaming handle stabilized but the exponential growth of these markets combined with the riskaround parlays, the key product for OSB operators, renewed disruption concerns.Bottom line:Our view is OSB operators still have a substantial competitive moat driven Shaun C. KelleyResearch AnalystBofAS+1 646 855 1005shaun.kelley@bofa.com by 1) more advanced product offerings and heavily refined UI/UX, 2) first mover withsports customer cohorts in legal OSB states, 3) much more comprehensive parlayofferings (multi-game, in-game), 4) collateral requirements for prediction markets and 5)relationships with teams, leagues and regulators. That said, the pace of predictionmarket innovation on product and volume growth is impressive and if left unfetteredmay have an advantage in acquiring key state (CA, TX) and age (18-21 year old)demographics in what looks to be a rapidly evolving competitive/regulatory landscape. Julie HooverResearch AnalystBofAS+1 646 855 0674julie.hoover@bofa.com Adrien de Saint Hilaire>>Research AnalystMLI (UK)adrien.de_saint_hilaire@bofa.com Deep dive: Prediction markets accelerate with NFL kick off SinceSeptember 1, Kalshi has shown strong prediction market contract volume growth,powered largely (80%+) by sports. In the most recent week, Kalshi did $872M of totalvolume (16% higher than the US election), and has seen double digit W/W growth for thelast 4 weeks. For the month of September volumes reached $2.9B, and Kalshi CEO TarekMansour said this weekend that they are annualizing at $40B. We believe volumes aremore skewed to football than traditional OSB operators and we note particularly rapidgrowth in college football that could be due to the 18 vs. 21 year old age requirement. OSB: online sports betting Risk:Prediction markets run-rating at 2-7% of OSB handleWe now estimate Kalshi could do ~$8-11B of volume in Q4 and reach $16B+ for the fullyear, +65-100% higher than our estimates just 8 weeks ago. In OSB handle terms, weestimate prediction markets could reach 2-7% of the OSB market Q4,slightly more thanthe March peak (see report). Sequential growth could drive these figures even higher,but we also believe actual share/cannibalization risk to traditional OSB is lower given 1)sharp bettor limits, 2) states where OSB is not currently legal and 3) 18-21 year olds.Including these, cannibalization risk may only be ~1-4%. There remains little evidence ofactual OSB cannibalization from state level data or operator conversations to-date. Inside: Parlay threat, Kalshi details, fees,competition We dig deeper on the parlay threat a much deeper dive on Kalshi's underlying growth,volumes and contract mix, the competitive landscape, a promotional/fee overview and anupdate on both key developments and the regulatory landscape. Big take: this market isseeing strong growth and an incredible pace of change; we expect further rapiddevelopment as new entrants including Polymarket, DFS+ operators and traditional OSBoperators increasingly overlap in a very dynamic environment. Prediction market update Kalshi enters the parlay frayOn Monday Night, Kalshi launched customizable parlays, including options to combine money lines, spreads, point totals and touchdown props (see screen shots below inExhibits 2-4). Currently, this parlay offering is same-game only and pre-match only,which compares to much deeper multi game, and live same-game-parlay options fortraditional sports books. However given 1) ~60-65% of OSB revenue comes from parlays, and 2) generalconsensus views that a parlay product would be difficult or impossible for predictionmarkets to launch (especially given the collateral requirements outlined below), theintroduction shocked investors and was a key reason for OSB operator stockunderperformance on Tuesday. In Exhibit 1 we outline key details and considerations ofthis offering. As a reminder, specifically, online sports betting in the US represents 65%of DraftKing’s revenue and 31% of Flutter’s. Exhibit2:The “combo” featurewas availablefor Monday Night Football gamesKalshi parlay interface Kalshi volume growth and deep diveFollowing the kickoff to the NFL season, Kalshi has shown extraordinary growth in its volume of event contracts, powered mostly (80%+ by sports, 75%+ just from football). •Significant volume acceleration.This week, Kalshi weekly volume surpassed thelevel at the presidential election for