网络的未来：面向全域有效连接的直连设备技术

Direct-to-Device for Universal Meaningful Connectivity Our firm We make innovation work for the world We work with businesses, governments, and multilateralinstitutions to unlock new markets, drive commercialsuccess, and create solutions that advance humanity. Our multidisciplinary team includes geopolitical analysts,regulatory specialists, and communications strategists, aswell as economists, engineers, physicians, and scientists. We combine on‑the‑ground expertise across every regionwith deep specialism, letting us go beyond conventionalconsulting to design and execute bold, end‑to‑endstrategies that help you scale sustainably and delivermeaningful impact for society. We help ambitious organisations turn ideas into real‑worldoutcomes quickly and decisively. Whether you’re expandinginto new markets, launching new solutions, or tacklingglobal challenges, we combine commercial insight, public‑policy and regulatory analysis, and deep networks to helpyou move with confidence and clarity. Find out more here: accesspartnership.com Copyright © 2025. The information contained herein is the property of AAAccess Partnership Limited and is provided on condition that it will not bereproduced, copied, lent, or disclosed, directly or indirectly, nor used for anypurpose other than that for which it was specifically furnished. AA Access Partnership Pte Ltd Contents Executive Summary...........................................................................................01 Core applicationsTwo evolving deployment modelsTowards hybrid models Estimating the size of the D2D market Implementing D2D – regulatory implications............................................11 Managing cross-border interferenceSpectrum licensing and enforcementEmergency servicesDefining and enforcing QoS criteriaConsumer rightsData privacy and lawful interception in cross-border operationsNew coverage obligations and universal service questionsWhat are regulators doing? What lies ahead...................................................................................................16 A single hybrid networkConclusion Appendix:Calculation of key figures in Chapter 2: Market Size Predictions........17 Authors...................................................................................................................20 Executive Summary Direct-to-Device (D2D) connectivity represents one of the most significantparadigm shifts in the evolution of global communications. Building ondecades of satellite innovation and the ubiquity of mobile devices, D2Dservices are now moving beyond niche applications to become a viablecomplement to terrestrial networks. While terrestrial cellular systems cover 96%of the global population, they reach only15% of the Earth’s surface, leaving hugeconnectivity gaps. Advances in satellite designand new deployments of low Earth orbit (LEO)constellations create opportunities to extendcoverage with satellite hybrid solutions to enablevital services. •Commercial potential is real but uncertain.Dependingon technology maturity and adoption, the addressableD2D market could range from USD 3.8 billion to USD16.1 billion by 2035. Growth will likely come first frompremium users and IoT services, gradually expandingto rural and mainstream consumers as costs fall. •Regulation will determine the pace of adoption.D2Dchallenges existing frameworks on spectrum licensing,interference management, emergency call obligations,quality of service (QoS) reporting, consumer rights,lawful interception, and universal service. Currentapproaches vary widely from light‑touch waivers tocomprehensive new frameworks reflecting differentpolicy priorities. Hybrid approaches are likely,balancing innovation with predictability. Building on these developments, this white paperreaches five key conclusions: •D2D is moving beyond niche use cases.Sinceits first commercial deployment in 2022, D2Dhas expanded from emergency messaginginto broader applications, including disasterresilience, Internet of Things (IoT) connectivity,and “constant connectivity” for mobileconsumers. Hybrid MSS/IMT and aggregatormodels are emerging as dominant pathways,helping to overcome spectrum fragmentationand hardware limitations. •Strategic outlook.Bandwidth, latency, anddevice power constraints mean that D2D is bestpositioned as part of integrated hybrid networks,combining terrestrial speed and affordability withsatellite reach and resilience. Ultimately the success of D2D will depend less onwhich band is used, and more on how well systemsinteroperate, regulatory frameworks adapt, andservices meet the practical needs of diverse usersacross geographies. Regulatory intervention will bekey to determining the pace at which D2D servicesgrow, and the ultimate scale of the market. •The socio-economic upside is substantial.Connecting over 360 million unserved peoplecould generate USD 59 billion in GDP gains,while D2D‑enabled communications couldmitigate USD 106.4 b