国家能力、制度与增长：税收起飞——重温税收引爆点

State Capacity,Institutions and Growth:Taxing for Takeoff Revisiting the Tax Tipping Point Prepared by Matthieu Bellon and Ross Warwick WP/25/203 IMF Working Papersdescribe research inprogress by the author(s) and are published toelicit comments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers arethose of the author(s) and do not necessarilyrepresent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board,or IMF management. 2025OCT IMF Working Paper Fiscal Affairs Department State Capacity,Institutions andGrowth: Taxing for Takeoff—Revisiting the Tax Tipping PointPrepared byMatthieu Bellon and Ross Warwick Authorized for distribution by Katherine BaerOctober 2025 IMF Working Papersdescribe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicitcomments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of theauthor(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT:Can simply exceeding a critical tax-to-GDP threshold bring about an accelerated trajectory ofeconomic growth and development in a country? We conduct new event studies and exploit a richer dataset torevisit Gaspar, Jaramillo and Wingender’s 2016 “tax tippingpoint”result. Both with their regressiondiscontinuity approach and a dynamic difference-in-differences estimation, we find that cumulative growth over10 years increases by 10 percentage points whena country’stax-to-GDP ratio increases above a 10 percentthreshold. Further, we show that crossing the threshold coincides with the beginning of significantimprovements in measures ofa country’sfinancial development, government effectiveness, legal framework,and governance. Event studies additionally reveal that only transformational episodes of tax increases abovethe threshold deliver these gains: episodic crossings that fail to bring tax revenues durably above the thresholdand that don't coincide with improvements in financial development and government effectiveness yield fleetinggains. Our results suggest that a minimal tax capacity is necessary for growth but emphasize that only asustained tax increase associated with other developmental progress is sufficient. RECOMMENDED CITATION:Bellon, M., and Warwick, R.(2025). “State Capacity, Institutions and Growth:Taxing for Takeoff—Revisiting the Tax Tipping Point”, IMF Working Paper. State Capacity,Institutions,andGrowth: Taxing for Takeoff Revisiting the Tax Tipping Point Prepared by Matthieu Bellon and Ross Warwick Contents Contents Introduction............................................................................................................................4 Tax Revenue.......................................................................................................................7Development Indicators......................................................................................................9Public Finance and Investment.........................................................................................102.Stylized Facts.........................................................................................................................11 1.Searching for a Tax Tipping Point..........................................................................................132.Event Study............................................................................................................................15 1.Identifying a Tax Tipping Point...............................................................................................17Locating a Potential Tax Tipping Point.............................................................................17Economic Growth and the Tax Tipping Point....................................................................182.Dynamics Around the Tax Tipping Point................................................................................20Confirming the Relevance of the Tax Tipping Point with an Event Study Approach........20Dynamics of Other Development Indicators Around the Tax Tipping Point......................22Lessons from Sustainable Increases in the Tax-to-GDP Ratio.........................................25 1.Model Setup...........................................................................................................................302.Dynamic Results....................................................................................................................31 References..................................................................................................................................................34 Appendix.....................................................................................................................................................371. Additional Figures...................................................................................................................37 2. Additional Tables..............