越南：精选问题

VIETNAM SELECTED ISSUES This paperonVietnamwas prepared by a staff team of the International Monetary Fundas background documentation for the periodic consultation with the member country. Itis based on the information available at the time it was completedonAugust 20, 2025. Copies of this report are available to the public from International Monetary Fund•Publication ServicesPO Box 92780•Washington, D.C. 20090Telephone: (202) 623-7430•Fax: (202) 623-7201E-mail:publications@imf.org Web:http://www.imf.org International Monetary FundWashington, D.C. VIETNAM SELECTED ISSUES Approved ByAsia and PacificDepartment Prepared ByNatasha Che,Fei Han,Ryoichi Okuma,TatjanaSchulze, Weining Xin (all APD), Anna Belianska (SPR), ElmerLi, Azar Sultanov, Marina Tavares (all RES), Nguyen VietPhong and Nguyen Thi Hau (both Vietnam NationalStatistics Office (NSO)), under the guidance of Paulo Medas(APD) and Aleksandra Zdzienicka (SPR). Nguyen Thi Huongand Le Trung Hieu provided helpful guidance, and NguyenThi Thao and Dang Mai Van (all NSO), along with NguyenQuynh Trang (Vietnam National University) and LiangliangZhu (APD), provided superb research assistance. CONTENTS BOOSTING PRODUCTIVITY AND MEDIUM-TERM GROWTH IN VIETNAM ________________ 3 A.Background and Research Agenda___________________________________________________________3B.Labor Productivity and Labor Market Policies_______________________________________________4C. Total Factor Productivity and Resource and Credit Misallocation_________________________ 14D. Leveraging Public Investment and Reforms Towards High Medium-Term Growth________ 22E.Harnessing Artificial Intelligence to Boost Long-Term Growth____________________________ 26F.Conclusions ________________________________________________________________________________ 31 FIGURES 1. Real Wage Per Hour Over Time And Across Types of Employer ______________________________62. Measure of the Degree of Skill Mismatch ____________________________________________________83. Labor Market Trends by Education and Sector in Vietnam ___________________________________84. Risk to Displacement Through AI for Women and Informal Workers _______________________ 115. Firms’ Contribution to Economic Activity, TFPR, and Real Wage Per Hour _________________ 166. Distribution of Firms’ TFP in 2022: By Select Industry_______________________________________ 177. Resource Misallocation_____________________________________________________________________ 19 VIETNAM 8. Vietnam and ASEAN Peers: Firm Borrowing Cost Premia ___________________________________ 219. Leverage and TFP by Industry ______________________________________________________________ 22 TABLES 1. Over-Qualification Mismatch Analysis______________________________________________________ 102. Policy Measures to Up- and Re-skill Workforce ____________________________________________ 14 References____________________________________________________________________________________ 33 ANNEX I. Figures and Tables __________________________________________________________________________ 36 UPGRADING THE FISCAL FRAMEWORK IN VIETNAM____________________________________ 39 A. Current Fiscal Framework __________________________________________________________________ 39B. Calibrating the Debt Rule __________________________________________________________________ 40C. Conclusions ________________________________________________________________________________ 43 References____________________________________________________________________________________ 45 BOOSTING PRODUCTIVITY AND MEDIUM-TERMGROWTH IN VIETNAM Vietnam’s export-led growth model has achieved remarkable growth performance in the past twodecades, but new efforts will be needed to sustain strong growth and achieve the desired high-incomestatus by 2045. A comprehensive set of structural reforms and public investment in infrastructure couldhelp boost productivity and medium-term economic growth. This paper analyzes inefficiencies inVietnam’s labor and capital markets that hinder productivity growth and discusses possible reforms toclose the structural gaps and improve resource allocation and productive efficiency including fromtechnological advancements including artificial intelligence (AI). A.Background and Research Agenda 1.Vietnam has achieved remarkable growth successes over the past two decades but itseconomic conditions are becoming less conducive to support strong growth.Despite thepositive contributions of labor and capital accumulation to growth, aggregate productivity hascontributed negatively to economic growth in Vietnam on average over the last two decades (IMF,2024a). With demographic trends projected to reverse in the coming decades, labor factors will alsoincreasingly become a drag on growth. 2.There are notable structural gaps relative to comparator countries that will need to beovercome to achieve the ambitious development agenda.The government’s vision is to reach high inc