原材料 - 天然铀供应紧张持续支撑多年上行周期；看好中广核矿业

Tight uranium supplycontinuestosupportamulti-year upcycle; Positive on CGN Mining Our bottom-up industryanalysis suggests that nuclear power demand in 2026-30 will likely see upside surprise on the back of power plant’s resumption in theUS, with structural AI-driven demand growth in the long run (post-2030). On thesupply side, however, we forecast existinguranium mines’ output to peak in2027, while new mines contribution will increase from 4% in 2027 to 17% in2030,making the overall supply vulnerable to potential delay incommencement.The analysis implies that uranium pricing will be well-supportedby the tight supply that could last longer-than-expected, whichreaffirms our positive stance on the uranium sector. We reiterateBUYonCGNMining (1164 HK)with new TP of HK$3.67. China Materials Sector Wayne FUNG, CFA(852) 3900 0826waynefung@cmbi.com.hk Jake Zhang(852) 3900 0849jakezhang@cmbi.com.hk Further upside ofnuclear demand likelycomesfrom the US.Weforecastthe global nuclear installed capacity to increase 20% to 451GW in2030 from 377GW in 2024.On top of this forecast, we see twofactors toboost furtherupside: (1) demandarisingfromthe restart ofU.S. reactors,fuelledby deregulation; (2)thepotentialbuild-up of U.S.strategicreserveproposed by the US Secretary of Energy.Assuming a reserveto supportone yearofnuclearpowergeneration in the US, ~15.5ktUof uranium willbe needed.Production cut bythe global top twoplayerstolimittheupside of near-term supply.With Kazatomprom(KAP LI)cutting its uraniumlicensedproduction capacity in 2025/26 by 17%/9%, and Cameco (CCJUS) trimming its 2025 production guidance by ~10%, thesupplygrowthinthe foreseeable future remainsrestrictive.We expect this willboost theuranium priceover the coming 12-18 months. Related reports:CGN Mining-Potential loss in 1H25E but recoveryin 2H25E;Expect a solidturnaround in 2026E–24 Jul 2025 (link) CGN Mining-New pricing formula for off-take agreement a big surprise–4 Jun2025 (link) Uranium supplygrowthvulnerable to potential delay of new minecommencement.Our analysis suggests thatglobal uraniumoutput fromexisting uranium mines will peak in 2027E, andcontribution from newmines will increase from 4% in 2027E to 17% in 2030E.Given thatthecommencement of new mines is subject to many factors and delay iscommon(due to long lead cycle of 8-15years), we expecttheactualsupplywill be less than that in the pipeline. CGN Mining–Uranium price gap likely tofurther narrow, a key catalyst for CGNMining–15 May 2025 (link) CGNMining–Further downside riskshouldbereducedwithlargecontract/spot uranium price gap–23 Mar2025 (link) CGN Mining-Profit alert mainly related toone-off items; core profit remainsintact–14 Mar 2025 (link) Long-termuranium price (post-2030E) will be supported bystructuraldemand growth andtightsupply.Supportive regulatory changes,risingenergy needs from AI, cloud services,energy security and climate goals,as well as small modular reactor (SMR) development, are main driversfordemand.On the supply side, long construction cycles, vulnerability todisruptions, a concentrated market landscape, and disciplined productionstrategies among major producers reinforce a structurally bullishpricingoutlook. Uranium sector-China tosecure moreuranium resources in Kazakhstan–18Dec 2024 (link) 原材料-天然铀受惠于全球核电未来十年的结构上升周期-2024年11月19日(链接) 中广核矿业-低成本铀矿具优势–2024年11月19日(链接) CGN Mining(1164 HK, BUY, TP: HK$3.67)-We revise up our 2026E-27E earnings forecast by 9-11%, after incorporating higher uranium spotprice assumptions.We revise up our NPV-based TP to HK$3.67 fromHK$2.42.We expect the continuous recovery of uranium price, driven bytight supply, will serve as share price catalyst(for details, please refer toour company report “Further upside driven by higher uranium price”). What are the changesfrompreviousforecast? 1.Loweredproduction estimates for Kazatomprom and Cameco to reflect theirannouncedlicensed production levelscuts and revised guidance. Revised productionvolumes for otherkey mines.2.Revised completion dates forreactor restarts (notably in the U.S. and Japan) basedon recent updates. We now expect three U.S. reactors, namely Palisades, Three MileIsland, and Duane toresume operationin 2025/27/28, respectively. For Japan, weanticipatetherestarts of two Kashiwazaki-Kariwa reactors to be postponed from 2025-26 to 2029-31, respectively, due to delays in anti-terrorism facility construction.3.Incorporated four new nuclear reactor projects under construction, with adjustedtimelines for constructing projects (we expect eight projects to defer by one year andtwo projects to suspend construction). Medium-termoutlook(2026–30) Medium-termdemandWe forecast global nuclear capacity to reach451 GW by 2030 (377 GWin 2024),by incorporating projects pipeline and potential reactor restarts with explicit timeline. Weseefurtherupside potentialarisingfrom U.S. reactor restarts (total net capacity ofshutdown reactors as of Sep 2025: ~20 GW), where regulatory processes