全球宏观思考：...刚好合适...

Max Kitson+44 (0) 20 3555 2386max.kitson@barclays.comBarclays, UK Global Macro Thoughts...but just right... Pratham Hukmat Kingar+91 (0) 22 6175 2018prathamhukmat.kingar@barclays.comBarclays, UK 22 September 2025 Where noted in the source notes, the views expressed within this report are taken from previously published research. For further detail, including importantdisclosures and analyst certifications, please follow the links on each page and on page 8. This document is intended for institutional investors and is not subject toall ofthe independence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research reportsprepared for retail investors under U.S. FINRA Rule 2242. Barclays trades the securities covered in this report for its own account and on a discretionary basis onbehalf of certain clients. Such trading interests may be contrary to the recommendations offered in this report. Please see analyst certification(s) and important disclosures at the end of this presentation. Restricted-ExternalRestricted - ExternalCompleted: 22-Sep-25, 11:08 GMT Released: 22-Sep-25, 11:12 GMT The world at a glance •A ‘normal’ Fed meeting, and not as dovish as it first seemed•Activity indicators and spending belie the weak US non-farm numbers•China data weakens in Q3, and yet the equity rally powers on•The BoJ sees surprise dissents; October is now a ‘live’ meeting•Making sense of it all A ‘normal’ Fed meeting, and not as dovish as it first seemed oCollectively, though, markets have been more sanguine, taking down term premiaoAnd if last week’s meeting is anything to go by, this seems to be the correct call •The notable thing about last week’s meeting was how ‘normal’ it was oGovernor Cook participated, having had two sets of courts rule in herfavorso faroAt first glance, the SEPs and dot plot suggest the reaction function turned dovishoThe Fed’s 2026 forecast went up for inflation and down for U3, but expected number of rate cuts rose •But there werea number ofmore hawkish messages sprinkled throughout the meeting oThe 2025 dot-plot had 7 members who regarded one or fewer 2025 cuts as most likelyoThe median would have been 2 cuts for 2025, if one of the 9 3-cut voters changed courseoJuly’s two dissenters (Waller and Bowman) fell in line, leaving Miran the sole dissent •Chair Powell also struck some hawkish notes during his press conference oHe highlighted the risk management nature of the cut, and played down the significance of the dotsoHe stated that the ‘breakeven’ pace of job gains was now 0-50k/moHe emphasized that the 50bp cut pushed by Miran had no other support •We believe that the FOMC has little inclination to deviate from slow normalizationoFears about politics hampering Fed independence are greatly overdone, at least right now 1Global Economics Weekly: Something for everyone(20 September 2025) We still expect two more Fed cuts this year The dots for 2025 reveal again a split among FOMC participants between those favoring nomore cuts and another two rate cuts Weak data in China, and surprise dissents in Japan •China August data showed weakness on virtually every metric, adding to July’s poor numbersoRetail sales, IP and exports all missed consensus by a wide marginoThe high-tech sector remains the bright spot, as it has all year, growing 9.3% y/y •The real estate sector remains a persistent headache for policymakers oProperty investment contracted at the fastest pace in almost 3 years, down 19.5% y/y in AugustoProperty sales returned to double-digit declines, down 10.6% y/y, the steepest fall since Sep 2024 •Leading indicators continued to weaken, including new starts and floor space under construction and completedoGDP could fall to as low as 3%, using an average of PPI and CPI as a deflatoroWe don’t expect game-changing new fiscal support; China should still register 4.5-5.0% H2 growth •On the other hand, the anti-involution campaign is changing sentiment, and likely helping inflation oCPI rose for the 5th month, PPI reversed 8 months of falls, and China-heavy commodities are rallyingoThe anti-competition push is making inroads; solar-panel makers are cutting back excessive incentives •Two voting members dissented infavorof a 25bp hike at last week’s BoJ meeting oBased on inflation, we believe that the conditions for a hike have already been metoBut theIshibaresignation, softening US jobs data and the start of Fed cuts all matteroWe still think January remains more likely for the next hike, but October isdefinitely ‘live’ 1Global Economics Weekly: Something for everyone(20 September 2025) We remain constructive on equities Post Fed cut resumption, equitieshistorically rose steadily in the absence of arecession Inflation risks appear manageable, with corePCE inflation forecast to fall overthecourse of 2026 Making sense of it all •The lack of US job creation hasn’t extended to other aspects of theUSeconomy1 oJobless claims remain low and prime-age LFPR high–not signs of colla