银行在哪里？分行合并时代的银行准入

Federal Reserve Board, Washington, D.C.ISSN 1936-2854 (Print)ISSN 2767-3898 (Online) Where’s The Bank? Banking Access in the Era of BranchConsolidation Robert M. Adams and Shane M. Sherlund 2025-086 NOTE: Staff working papers in the Finance and Economics Discussion Series (FEDS) are preliminarymaterials circulated to stimulate discussion and critical comment.The analysis and conclusions set forthare those of the authors and do not indicate concurrence by other members of the research staff or theBoard of Governors. References in publications to the Finance and Economics Discussion Series (other thanacknowledgement) should be cleared with the author(s) to protect the tentative character of these papers. WHERE’S THE BRANCH?BANKING ACCESS IN AN ERA OF BRANCH CONSOLIDATION ROBERT M. ADAMS AND SHANE M. SHERLUND Abstract.This study examines changes in household and employment access to bankbranches in the United States from 2014 to 2024, calculating distances with highly granularcensus block-level data.We develop a continuous measure of bank branch access thataccounts for population and employment density, implicitly accounting for varying traveltimes within different urban and rural areas.Our findings indicate that despite a 19-percent decline in bank branches over the decade, average distances to the nearest branchincreased only modestly—by 0.02 to 0.28 miles depending on area density. We find somedisparities in branch access across racial and income groups, but these gaps did not widensubstantially over the 2014-2024 period.Overall, our results suggest that while somelocalized reductions in branch access occurred, the significant reduction in the numberof branches did not result in significant decreases in access to local bank branches forhouseholds or businesses. JEL: G21, R32Keywords: Banking, Branch Networks, Geospatial Analysis, Banking Deserts 1.Introduction Access to financial services, especially banking services, has been a topic of interest inresearch and a concern for policymakers. Historically, bank branches, specifically brick andmortar locations, have been the centerpiece to such analyses, as many banking services werelocally provided at nearby branches. Fueled mainly by the decline in the number of bankbranches and the continued national consolidation of banking assets, consumer advocateshave raised concerns about access to bank branches. These structural changes further fueledconcerns that banks are leaving poorer, perhaps more racially diverse neighborhoods. As thesupply of banking services provided through branches declines, some groups or businesses,who are more reliant on branches and have to travel further to a branch, could be harmed.In this paper, we reconsider the question of whether household distances to their nearestbranch has increased in a changing banking environment.We calculate more accuratemeasures of distance using more detailed geographic data and we also consider a morecontinuous measure of branch access. Over the past decade, the banking industry has experienced significant structuralchanges, with the most notable being a dramatic decline in the number of branches. Figure1 illustrates the number of commercial bank and savings institution branches since 1994,showing that after nearly three decades of consistent growth, branch numbers began to de-crease following the global financial crisis (GFC). The total number of branches peaked atapproximately 99,500 shortly after the GFC. By 2014, this number had decreased to 94,725,and by 2024, it had further declined to 76,742, representing a net loss of nearly 18,000 bankbranches (19 percent). Commercial banks alone saw a reduction from 86,530 branches in2014 to 71,994 in 2024, a decline of almost 17 percent.1 This trend is further evidenced by the increase in branch closings over this period.Figure 2 depicts the number of branch openings and closings since 2000.Prior to 2009,branch openings consistently outnumbered closings, resulting in a net increase.However,post-2009, this pattern reversed, with closings exceeding openings, leading to the observednet loss of branches over the past decade.2 The decline in bank branches has given rise to discussions about “banking deserts,”defined as areas where residents have no access to traditional bank branches.Residentsof banking deserts might not be able to obtain financial services and may have to rely on alternative financial services, such as payday, auto title, or pawn lenders, which can be moreexpensive and less regulated than traditional banking services.3Limited access to credit andbanking services can make it difficult for individuals to start businesses, purchase homes,or invest in their education, which can limit their economic mobility and hinder economicgrowth in their communities. As a first step, we consider how distance to the nearest bank branch changed overthe 2014-2024 period.We then measure access by calculating the number of people perbranch, using kernel-den