ABB，ABC，ABD，AI & BIG

ABB, ABC, ABD, AI & BIG 11 September 2025 Scores on the Doors: YTD gold 38.0%, global stocks 25.4%, bitcoin 23.0%, US stocks12.0%, IG bonds 9.9%, HY bonds 9.4%, govt bonds 7.6%, commodities 3.7%, cash 3.0%,US dollar -10.1%, oil -13.2%. ZeitgeistI:“Fed cutting at highs…I’m staying long stocks until we start worrying aboutthe midterms next spring.” Zeitgeist II:“Europe was the spring trade, Chinese stocks have been the summer trade,and Japan will be the autumn trade.” The Price is Right: risk parity (RPAR) breaking above 2024 highs (Chart 3)…marketsaying Fed can cut with credibility and is cutting into US growth re-acceleration. Michael HartnettInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 1508michael.hartnett@bofa.com Tale of the Tape: hyperscaler capex as % of cash flow up from 35% in’23 to 72%(Chart 4), but tech sector credit spreads close to their tightest since 1997 (Chart 5)…credit investors not worried about AI cash burn risks. Elyas Galou>>Investment StrategistBofASE (France)+33 1 8770 0087elyas.galou@bofa.com The Biggest Picture: US nominal GDP up 54% since 2020, strongest upswing sinceWWII (Chart 2); but nominal GDP growth peaking in’25, will slow from 6% p.a. to 4% onweaker government spend & labor market…why bond yields peaking (Chart 7) and bearmarket in“ABB”(Anything but Bonds) trades (e.g. small cap, value…) reversing in 2025. Anya ShelekhinInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 3753anya.shelekhin@bofa.com Myung-Jee JungInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 0389myung-jee.jung@bofa.com More on page 2… Source:BofA Global Investment Strategy The indicatoridentified above as the BofA Bull & Bear Indicator isintended to be an indicative metric only and may not beused for reference purposes or as a measure ofperformance for any financial instrument or contract, orotherwise relied upon by third parties for any otherpurpose, without the prior written consent of BofAGlobal Research. This indicator was not created to act asa benchmark.BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH Trading ideas and investment strategies discussed herein may give rise to significant risk and arenotsuitable for all investors. Investors should have experience in relevant markets and the financialresources to absorb any losses arising from applying these ideas or strategies.>> Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst under the FINRA rules.Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Securities entities that take responsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictions.BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Refer to important disclosures on page 10 to 12.12875602 Timestamp: 11 September 2025 11:08PM EDT Weekly Flows: $66.1bn to cash, $17.9bn to bonds, $3.4bn to gold, $0.1bn tocrypto,$9.9bn from stocks. Flows to Know: •Cash: huge $266bn inflows to MMFs in past 4 weeks;•Gold: 4thbiggest weekly inflow ever ($3.4bn–Chart 10);•Municipals: record weekly inflow ($3.1bn–Chart 11);•Global equity ETFs: 1stoutflow in 4 months ($3.2bn);•US value: first back-to-back inflows since Nov'24 ($0.5bn). BofA Private Clients: $4.1tn AUM…64.2% allocation to stocks highest since Mar'22,18.1% to bonds lowest since May'22, 10.6% to cash lowest since Oct'21; under-the-hood, allocation of private clients toMagnificent 7 stocks (16% of AUM) contrasts withnon-US stocks (4%), US Treasuries (3%), and gold (0.4%);in ETFs past 4 weeks…buyingEM debt, Japan, industrials, selling energy, healthcare. BofA Bull & Bear Indicator: stays at 5.9 as bullish EM & HY bond inflows & strongerglobal stock index breadth offset by bearish hedge fund positioning in oil futures; FMScash <3.7%, stronger equity inflows (>$25bn per week, hedge funds cutting oil shortsnecessary catalysts to push B&B indicator to frothier >7 level). BofA Global Fund Manager Survey: Sept survey to be released on 16th…if FMS cashlevels fall from 3.9% to <3.7% and equity allocation jumps from net 14% OW to >30%,and global growth expectations see big rise (note -41% in Aug), this would signal“extreme bull”sentiment. On BIG: 3 biggest investment themes of 2020s have been ABB (Anything but Bonds),ABC (Anywhere but China) and AI; we say 2025 marks end of ABB & ABC trades, start ofnew ABD (Anything but the Dollar) trade, barbell needed to play AI bubble…long BIG… •Bonds…peak nominal GDP growth + bonds back as risk asset hedge…UST yieldsheading lower (GT5 to 3%, GT30 toward 4%); cyclical end of ABB +ve for unlovedbond sensitives (-4% rolling return small vs large close to 100-year lows–Chart 8);•International...weaker dollar, end of EU/Japan deflation, EU/Asia fiscal excess, andChina tech optimal way to barbell US AI bubble…long international;•Gold…h