谨慎对待：国内债务重组的收益和成本（英）

Tread with Care: Benefits andCosts of Domestic DebtRestructurings Jean-Marc Atsebi and Jeta Menkulasi WP/25/179 IMF Working Papersdescribe research inprogress by the author(s) and are published toelicit comments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers arethose of the author(s) and do not necessarilyrepresent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board,or IMF management. 2025SEP IMF Working Paper Fiscal Affairs Department Tread with Care: Benefitsand Costsof Domestic Debt RestructuringsPrepared byJean-MarcAtsebi and Jeta Menkulasi* Authorized for distribution byNikolay GueorguievSeptember2025 IMF Working Papersdescribe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicitcomments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of theauthor(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT:With increasing debt vulnerabilities, domestic debt may become an important—though stilldistinct––part of debt restructurings. This paper aims to contribute to the discourse by examining the factorsthat precipitate domestic debt restructurings (DDRs) and their implications for macro-fiscal outcomes. We findthat: (i) DDRs are less effective than external debt restructurings (EDRs) in reducing public debt and interestpayments; and (ii) they entail deeper, more persistent costs to output and domestic credit. Still, well-designedDDRs can be critical for restoring macroeconomic stability and sustainability, regardless of costs. Their impactsdepend on design, instruments, sovereign-bank nexus, concurrent fiscal consolidation, and financialdevelopment. Finally, the paper shows that gross international reserves and the presence of an IMF-supportedprogram can mitigate the costs associated with DDRs while preserving their debt relief benefits. RECOMMENDED CITATION:Atsebi, J., Menkulasi, J. (2025). Tread with Care: Benefits and Costs ofDomestic Debt Restructurings. IMF Working Paper, WP/25/179. International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC. Tread with Care:BenefitsandCostsofDomestic DebtRestructurings Prepared byJean-Marc Atsebi and Jeta Menkulasi Contents I.Introduction......................................................................................................................................................6 1.Data............................................................................................................................................................82.Stylized Facts.............................................................................................................................................9 1.Dealing with the Endogeneity of Debt Restructurings..............................................................................102.Local Projections......................................................................................................................................113.The AIPW Estimator.................................................................................................................................12 IV.Main Results................................................................................................................................................14 1.Logit Estimates: The likelihood of DDRs..................................................................................................142.CBPS Estimates: Covariate Balancing Scores........................................................................................153.The ATE impacts of Debt Restructurings on Public Debt, Interest Payments, GDP, andDomestic Credit............................................................................................................................................15 V.Robustness Checks.....................................................................................................................................19 1.Keeping Countries with at Least One Type of Debt Restructurings.........................................................192.Focusing on DDRs with Only Resident Creditors and Excluding Deposit-Only DDRs............................193.Alternative Maximum Weights Set in the Treatment Models...................................................................204.Using Logit to Predict Propensity Scores.................................................................................................205.Extending the Horizon to 10 Years..........................................................................................................20 1.LICs vs. EMs............................................................................................................................................212.Design and Instruments of DDRs.............................................................................................................213.Conditional on the Degree of Sovereign-Bank Nexus......................................