固定收益日报

CMBI Credit Commentary Fixed Income Daily Market Update固定收益部市场日报 Thismorning,China TMT names MEITUA/TENCNT and TW lifersSHIKON/NSINTWs/FUBON/CATLIFs tightened2-5bps. SG/TH names were2-4bps tighter. JP/KR IG space was 1-3bps tighter. FRNs were largelyunchanged. We saw profit taking on MTRC 5 5/8 PERP and JP long-endbonds. Glenn Ko, CFA高志和(852) 3657 6235glennko@cmbi.com.hk FUTLAN/FTLNHD:Media report that Seazen would look to offerUSD250mn bonds as early as next week to refinance USD300mn FTLNHD4 5/8 10/15/25. FUTLAN 28/FTLNHD 25-26 were largely unchanged thismorning. See below. Cyrena Ng, CPA吳蒨瑩(852) 3900 0801cyrenang@cmbi.com.hk Chinese properties:8M25 contracted sales declined 19.4%yoy. See below. Yujing Zhang张钰婧(852)3900 0830zhangyujing@cmbi.com.hk Trading desk comments交易台市场观点 Yesterday,the CNH new issues overall performed well.TENCNT 3.109/23/55 gained 1.5-2pts, TENCNT 2.1 09/23/30 and TENCNT 2.5 09/23/35edged 0.4-0.5pt higher. CHOHIN 3.9 PERP was 0.4-0.5pt higher with AMstopping up. The rest of CNH credits were largely stable despite small sellingin the long-end notes. In the secondary IG space, China TMT names werelargely unchanged, except that the MEITUA curve tightened 3bps. TW lifersSHIKON/NSINTWs/FUBON/CATLIFs retraced 2-5bps. HK bank T2 paperswere unchanged to a touch tighter. We saw better buying on NANYAN 34.MTRC 5 5/8 and MTRC 4 7/8 PERPs were 0.1-0.2pt higher. NWDEVL bondswere unchanged to 0.4pt higher. We saw profit-taking on higher-yieldingnames like YXREIT/HONGQI. In Chinese properties, VNKRLE 27-29s werelargely unchanged. Vanke obtained another shareholder’s loan from SZMetro ahead of the RMB2bn onshore bond maturity on 21 Sep’25.See ourcommentyesterday. FUTLAN 28/FTLNHD 26 were also unchanged. Seecomments below. In Korea space, the recent new issues HYNMTR 4.2528/HYNMTR 4.5 30/HYNMTR 3-5yrs FRNs/HYUELE 28-30s widened 1-3bps. InJapan, there were balanced two-way flows on Bank papers. YankeeAT1s leaked by 0.1-0.3pt in the long end amid some retail selling ahead ofFOMC, whilst there was continuous demand in the front end of the curve fromAMs. In Southeast Asia, BBLTB sub curve was 4bps wider. SMCGL 8.95PERP and SMCGL 8 ¾ PERP was 0.7-1pt higher. In LGFV space, liquidity remained thin, despite slightly further pick-up indemand for onshore AAA-guaranteed papers, and several higher-yieldingissues north of 9% from AMs deployingcash tactically. Last Trading Day’s Top Movers Marco News Recap宏观新闻回顾 Macro–S&P (-0.10%), Dow (+0.57%) andNasdaq (-0.33%) were mixed on Wednesday. FOMC lowered thebenchmark interest rate by 25bps, which was the same as the market expectation. Federal Reserve officials alsosignaled two more interest rate reductions this year. The US Crude Oil Inventories was-9.285mn, lower than themarketexpectation of+1.4mn.UST yield was higher on Wednesday.2/5/10/30 yield was at3.52%/3.62%/4.06%/4.66%. Desk Analyst Comments分析员市场观点 Media reported that Seazen would plan to refinance the maturing FTLNHD 4 5/8 10/15/25 with a new USDissue.We are not surprised by the report given the improving market sentiment and the resilient performanceofFUTLAN/FTLNHDs.FTLNHD 4 5/8 10/15/25 and FTLNHD 4 1/2 05/02/26 were 11-13pts higher since theliberation day.The new issue, FUTLAN 11.88 06/26/28, is 1.2pts higher from RO in Jun’25.Recalled thatSeazen completed the tender offers and concurrent new issue in Jun’25 to partly refinance FUTLAN 4.4507/13/25 and FTLNHD 4 5/8 10/15/25.Indeed, we take the reported plan positive as this will help further relieveSeazen’s refinancing pressure.We believe that any refinancing plans of Seazen could follow the same lines ofthoughts of the exercise in Jun’25 with partial tender offer and concurrent new issue.We understand Seazenhas a NDRC quota of USD330mn for new issue.The quota will expire in Apr’26.We maintain buy onFUTLAN/FTLNHDs and considersthem offering good carry.Further progress in accessing the USD bond marketwill be a catalyst to support further out-performance. Seazen posted weaker 1H25 results. The notably lower GFA delivered and ASP were partly mitigated by highercontribution from IPs.The occupancy rate of its IPs maintained high at 97.8% as of Jun’25 (vs. 98.0% as ofDec’24) and the segmentgross margin was at 71.2% in 1H25 (vs. 72.2% in 1H24).In 1H25, total recurringincome increased 8.6% yoy to RMB7.0bn, equivalent to 3.9x of its gross interest expenses. Seazen maintained a largely stable credit profile.It obtained additional secured loans of cRMB4.5bn againstits IPs in 1H25.We estimated that total secured loans against its IPs were cRMB50bn with an LTV of c40%.Weunderstand that Seazen has 18 malls remain unpledged, and this could be translated into a headroom ofadditional cUSD1bnsecured loans against its IPs (vs total o/s USD bonds of USD954mn).We believe thatthe maturity profile of Seazen is manageable in view of the financial flexibility offered by its IPs and the graduallyresumption of its access to various funding channels. Chinese pr