减少联邦研发如何降低GDP增长

MEGHAN OSTERTAG|SEPTEMBER 2025 Cutting federal investments in R&D may appear to save billions in the budget, but it could costthe economy trillions. In fact, ITIF estimates that cutting federal R&D by 20 percent would costthe U.S. economy up to almost $1.5 trillion compared with China’s growth pace. KEY TAKEAWAYS Federal investments in R&D drive U.S. innovation, productivity, and economic growth.While cutting research funding may save taxpayers’ money in the short term, it incursgreater costs in the long term. Cutting federal R&D by 20 percent instead of keeping investments constant as a share ofGDP would reduce spending by $620 billion over 10 years—but it would shrink theeconomy by nearly $1 trillion and reduce tax revenues by close to $250 billion. China is rapidly expanding its investments in R&D and may have already surpassed theUnited States in total research investment. Cutting America’s public investments inresearch would amplify Chinese competitiveness in advanced technologies. R&D investment increases the number of patents filed, start-ups launched, and firms thatenter the export market, all of which are essential for American competitiveness. Federal investment in R&D is often used for research viewed as too risky for private firms,such as basic research, and “crowds-in” private sector investment in research. Seventy percent of federal R&D dollars flow to universities and labs, training Ph.D.candidates, and attracting top talent. Cutting R&D funding would weaken the researchworkforce of the United States. itif.org CONTENTS Key Takeaways................................................................................................................... 1Introduction....................................................................................................................... 2Importance of R&D............................................................................................................. 4Cuts to Federally Funded Research ...................................................................................... 6R&D Expenditure Shortfall ............................................................................................... 7How Federal R&D Grows the Economy.................................................................................. 9Effects on GDP and Tax Revenue...................................................................................... 9Implications on U.S. Competitiveness ............................................................................. 11Conclusion ...................................................................................................................... 11Appendix: Methodology..................................................................................................... 12Endnotes......................................................................................................................... 14 INTRODUCTION In an effort to cut federal spending, the Trump administration’s budget proposal for 2026recommends slashing public investments in research and development (R&D) by as much as halffor certain agencies—and in some areas, drastic reductions have already begun.1But federalR&D plays a crucial role in driving U.S. innovation, productivity, and economic growth. Whilecutting research funding may save taxpayers’ money in the short term, it incurs greater costs inthe long term. In this report, ITIF models the impact of cutting federal R&D investments by 20 percent startingin fiscal year 2026. (This would be $40.7 billion less than was budgeted for R&D in 2025.) Themodel projects this scenario over 10 years and compares it with three alternative scenarios:maintaining the 2025 R&D budget amount, maintaining the 2025 R&D level as a share of U.S.gross domestic product (GDP), or keeping pace with China’s level of R&D investment as a shareof its GDP. As shown in figure 1, a 20 percent cut would reduce federal R&D spending by a cumulative$407 billion over 10 years compared with maintaining the same amount of spending that wasbudgeted for 2025. It would reduce spending by a cumulative $620 billion compared withmaintaining the 2025 R&D budget level as a share of GDP. And it would save $985 billioncompared with keeping pace with China’s R&D intensity. But as shown in figure 2, those spending reductions would come at a steep cost to the U.S.economy. Cutting federal R&D spending by 20 percent would reduce U.S. GDP by more than$700 billion cumulatively over 10 years versus maintaining the same amount of R&D spendingthat was budgeted in 2025. It would shrink the economy by $1 trillion compared withmaintaining the 2025level of R&D intensity as a share of GDP. And it would put the U.S.economy nearly $1.5 trillion behind China’s pace. We estimate that a 20 percent cut to federal government R&D spending will reduce GDP by at least$717 billion and up to nearly $1.5 trillion over the 10-year period from 2026 to 2035 Mo