Jefferies-RE的利弊分析：太阳能是否已触底-20250911【24页】

USA | Clean Energy The Pluses and Minuses of RE+: Has SolarFound A Bottom? We see the RE+ conference as generallyreaffirmingof an improving backdrop tothe sector - and affirming the 'buy the dipmentality post OBBBA passage. Datapointsaffirm constructive bookings quarter with 3Qa 'trueup' with sizable safe harbor orders.We don't see material pull-in possible for'26/'27 driving generally flattish outlook foroverall Utility-scale, and a still down yearfor resi solar in '26. We see utility-scalehaving quite robust year in '28 as long aspermitting regime isn't further impaired: afear we hold following our latest checks; Asthe first major conference post O3BA and Treasury guidance ourtemperature check remains positive for renewable writ large, with the need forelectrons Trump(ing) all else. We see utility scale solar largely intact through'26/'27 and resi solar better than feared (at least for TPOs). Incrementally RE+ Reinforces Bullish Outlook for Utility Scale Solar:Despite some third-party forecasts showinga Y/Y decline in '26 utility-scale solar installations, conversations with EPCs and developers suggestthe market remains strong through 2027. Tier 1 developers have largely secured SH, reducingurgency to accelerate construction, while some OEMs saw demand pull-ins around July 4th ahead fears pervade in DC as initial DOI impacts appear manageable for now [only a handful of Regulatory headwinds persist, particularly around DoI permitting and FEOC compliance, withdevelopersapplying strict audit standards that may slow progress.Module price toutingastronomical numbers, with domestically assembled modules being quoted at high $0.30s to$0.50/w even, driven by tariffs and cost pass-throughs. This pricing environment benefits OEMs Paul Zimbardo * | Equity Analyst+1 (212) 778-8497 | pzimbardo@jefferies.com Dushyant Ailani, CFA * | Equity Analyst1 (212) 778-8318 | dailani@jefferies.com While we are constructive across all the utility scale solar names (FSLR, ARRY, NXT, SHLS) underour coverage, we came out incrementally +ve onNXT andFSLR.OnNXT,the co continues toshare breadcrumbs of its diversifying portfolio ahead of the Nov CMD, whileFSLRnoting potentialannouncements of finishing lines in 3Q call. We could also expect to see a strong 3Q order book as well. Saree Boroditsky, CFA * | Equity Analyst(212) 284-2280 | sboroditsky@jefferies.com Brian Russo, CFA * | Equity Analyst+1 (212) 778-8559 | brusso@jefferies.com Resi Solar Surprisingly Optimistic: Investor sentiment around resi solar has turned cautiouslyoptimistic following RE+, with expectations for a slightly better 2026 outlook, particularly for TPOs.While the market is still projected to decline year-over-year due to the expiration of 25D, recentTreasury guidance has improved visibility and extended tax credit eligibility for leases through 2030. Ivana Ergovic * | Equity Analyst+1 (212) 284-2175 | iergovic@jefferies.com Jamieson Ward, CFA * | Equity Analyst+1 (281) 774-2081 | jamieson.ward@jefferies.com Tanner James, CFA * | Equity Analyst+1 (212) 788-8667 | tjames@jefferies.com Hannah Velasquez * | Equity Associate+1 (347) 982-6038 | hvelasquez@jefferies.com We perceive investors are coming around on resi names likeENPH,RUN, andSEDGthat have been outof favor for most of 2025 given OBBB volatility.GNRC'snew offeringis also starting to turn some heads.RUN alluded to growth in 2026 driven by higher volumes and prices, reflecting one of the more bullishcomments out of RE+ as most of the industry braces for declines in the market next year. SEDG shared James Ko * | Equity Associate+1 (312) 588-5155 | jko@jefferies.com Whitney Mutalemwa * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 707-6413 | wmutalemwa@jefferies.com Alex Overmeer * | Equity Associate(332) 204-0182 | alex.overmeer@jefferies.com Storage Increasingly in the Spotlight at the 'Solar' Conference.Storage was at the forefront ofconversations, illustrating the growing prevalence of batteries as load growth continues to outpacesupply. We noted traditionally pure-play solar OEMs like SHLS, CSIQ and Jinko showcasing theirstorage-adjacent offerings as storage benefits from preferential treatment post OBBB (yes, even Qudrat Qureshi * | Equity Associate(646) 530-5925 | qqureshi@jefferies.com Spark Li * | Equity Associate+1 (713) 308-4573 (office) | sli8@jefferies.com Luke Fenker * | Equity Associate+1 (713) 308-4523 | lfenker@jefferies.com Investors increasingly want a way to play US BESS, renewing interest in BESS suppliers likeFLNCandEOSE. While we remain cautious on both names to varying degrees, we see potential for upside in outeryears once FEOC takes effect. Utility-Scale Solar Intact Through 2028, Unclear Beyond Safe Harbor Ongoing, Demand Pull-In Uncertain: See deployment trends in '28 proving to beexceptionally strong. Better '29 too. '26/'27 likely to be quite flat with the current '25 cadence. Despite third-party estimates pointing a 14% Y/Y decline in installations from 2025 to 2026 Ex-2),o