2030年全球电梯市场展望报告

RALPH MAIRPartner SVEN SIEPENSenior Partner Introduction GARETH HAYESSenior Partner With a value of around USD 107 billion in 2024, the global elevator market isexpected to grow by around a third by 2030, driven primarily by a graduallyrecovering construction sector, positive economic indicators and a burgeoningservice market. CHRIS HOYESPartner MASAYUKI IGARASHIPartner Roland Berger's Elevator Market Outlook reports, of which this is the first in a six-monthly series, aims to fill this gap, providing essential business intelligence for allmarket players. Each report digs down into the trends and drivers shaping themarket and uses a specially developed model to assess several key metrics bybusiness line and region to 2030: by market value, market development, installedbase, growth areas, and competition. It also offers news of the latest developmentsand events in the market. Each is set out in a separate chapter to facilitatecomparison with future and past reports. As the industry returns to strong growth after several challenging years, this firstedition makes the following key findings: Business lines:With an aging installed base and a downturn in the constructionsector, the Maintenance segment will be the strongest market value contributor inabsolute terms in the next few years, while the Modernization segment will grow thestrongest, albeit from a lower basis. The New equipment segment will not fullyrecover until 2030. Regions:The Asia Pacific (APAC) region will continue to hold the largest marketshare, overcoming the credit and construction crisis in China and expected to pickup growth in 2026. However, Europe is catching up and will see continuous growth duemainly to its large Maintenance market. In North America, growth will also primarilystem from Maintenance given the region's developed installed base. Trends and drivers The elevator industry is influenced by multiple different trends and drivers. In the firstpart of our report, we look at both the macro and market-specific factors affectingthe market and assess their impact based on interviews with experts in the sector. GDP & construction spending growth "The elevator marketremains attractive,driven byurbanization and astrong servicebusiness. While newequipmentchallenges persist inregions like Germanyand China, they willeventually beovercome." Global GDP spending is projected to grow by 7% annually between 2022 and 2030,with global construction spending set to rise by 5% in the same period. This will resultin more infrastructure and urban housing development, increasing the volumedemand for elevators, escalators and walkways. High inflation Inflation surged in 2022 as a result of several socioeconomic factors. This has putpressure on the volume of new equipment installations as developers are constrainedby higher raw material prices, but the market value is partially offset by priceinflation. Inflation is expected to return to pre-COVID levels over the next few years. Growing population & rising urbanization In 2030, around 60% of the global population will live in urban areas (up from 39% in1980). Populations will also be increasingly aged as healthcare improves. Both trendswill support volume growth as higher population densities require taller buildings,and older populations require more elevators for improved mobility. Digitalization & IoT Digital connectivity via Internet of Things (IoT) appliances and sensors is becomingmore important as building owners and occupants demand more capability andconnectivity. While this will not impact elevator volumes sold, it will allow OEMs tocommand higher prices for the additional functionality while having the potentialto disrupt the elevator market. RALPH MAIRPartner Performance enhancements Elevator performance is scaling to match the increasing complexity and higherdemands of new high-rise buildings. Faster speeds and smarter operations will notimpact the quantity of elevators sold, but will lead to an increase in the pricing ofsome elevator installations. OEMs that push performance standards coulddifferentiate their product as these demands grow. Sustainable offerings As sustainability grows in importance for both occupants and building owners,the design of elevators will reflect it. While not increasing volume sold, this willcreate a price premium for more sustainable elevators while giving OEMs focusedon sustainable designs an opportunity to disrupt the market and differentiatethemselves. Aging installed base Aging elevator and escalator installed bases have led to the development of anextensive aftermarket for services and maintenance that OEMs can capture. Theycreate opportunities for all OEMs to grow maintenance sales volumes, but do notinfluence the pricing of elevators or maintenance services. Increasing threat from local service vendors Local service and maintenance vendors have flourished by taking on smallerbuildings that OEMs have typically avoided as customers